(BIRDS SQUAWK)
JANE CORBIN: This narrow stretch of water
JANE CORBIN: is all that separates
the People's Republic of China, ruled by the Communist Party,
from Taiwan, one of Asia's most successful democracies.
What happens out here in the Taiwan Strait
What happens out here isn't just about Taiwan and China.
It's got the potential to spark a global conflict isn't just about Taiwan and China.
It's got the potential to spark a global conflict
that could threaten all of us.
(LOUD BLASTS)
J MICHAEL COLE: Certainly the Taiwan Strait right now
is one of the most dangerous and unstable flashpoints
that is facing our world today and for years to come.
GARY ROUGHEAD: Taiwan is a cork in a bottle.
GARY ROUGHEAD: Whoever controls Taiwan
controls the cork in that bottle.
China says it's time
for its breakaway province China says it's time
for its breakaway province to return to the motherland.
But Taiwan is standing up to China.
I've been reporting on conflicts in the Pacific region for decades,
but now this could just be the most dangerous place on earth.
LO CHIH-CHENG: You have two nuclear powers -
LO CHIH-CHENG: US and China.
There could be a disaster for the region and even for the whole world.
2016 - Tsai Ing-wen is elected President.
2016 - (CHEERING)
She's the first woman to run Taiwan.
A new era begins.
Her election is unprecedented in another way.
She openly refuses to accept the idea that Taiwan is a province of China.
For her, this is an independent country.
In China the reaction is swift.
President Xi Jinping cuts relations.
(APPLAUSE)
The desire of the Taiwanese for a more independent future
reverberates across the world.
(CHEERING)
One China, one Taiwan!
Taiwan is a country! It's my country! Yeah! Yeah!
Taiwan is Taiwan and China is China.
Yes.
Young people voted overwhelmingly
for Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party.
(BAND PLAYS ROCK BALLAD)
Fire EX played (BAND PLAYS ROCK BALLAD)
Fire EX played at the President's inauguration.
The band put politics at the heart of their music.
(BAND CONTINUES PLAYING ROCK BALLAD)
Tsai Ing-wen and her inner circle
are always careful not to call publicly for independence.
First of all, we emphasise
that Taiwan HAS been an independent country, First of all, we emphasise
that Taiwan HAS been an independent country,
so, there's no need now
to declare again the independence of Taiwan.
to declare again But we understand and we emphasise
that the people in Taiwan should have the final say
about a solution to the so-called Taiwan problem.
(ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS)
The Taiwan problem began in 1949.
The Communists under Mao Tse-tung
forced the Nationalist Government out of China.
ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: One stronghold after another
has fallen to the advancing reds.
General Chiang Kai Shek fled to the neighbouring island,
taking over a million people with him.
taking over a million people War of one kind or another
has been their lot War of one kind or another
has been their lot pretty well all their lifetime.
He declared Taiwan, just 100 hundred miles off the mainland,
He declared Taiwan, just the independent Republic of China.
(ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS)
Today, it's only officially recognised as a sovereign nation
Today, it's only officially by 13 countries.
Victor Gao, a former diplomat,
is regarded as a spokesman for the Chinese Government.
From the very beginning in 1949 is regarded as a spokesman for the Chinese Government.
From the very beginning in 1949
China has always been
calling for the reunification of Taiwan.
There is only one China, and Taiwan is part of China,
and people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese people -
same blood, same civilisation, same culture, same people.
23 million people live in Taiwan,
one of the richest and most dynamic democracies in the world.
one of the richest and most dynamic Its high-tech industries
have made it one of the most digitally connected societies too.
China seized advantage of that
when Tsai Ing-wen moved into the Presidential Palace
when Tsai Ing-wen in the capital, Taipei.
From the moment she was first elected
the President and her government
became a thorn in the side of China and the Chinese Communist Party.
became a thorn in the side of China Their reaction?
A campaign of misinformation, intimidation and dirty tricks.
Puma Shen and his team
investigate attacks and disinformation online.
And where is most of this disinformation coming from?
President Tsai got Taiwan's digital community involved in the fightback.
AUDREY TANG: No country is an island in cyberspace, not even Taiwan.
AUDREY TANG: No country is an island (LAUGHS) So, we stand ready.
Audrey Tang, a former hacker and Taiwan's first trans Minister,
is battling the online attacks from Communist China.
AUDREY TANG: I think the main strategic goal
is to undermine people's trust AUDREY TANG: I think the main strategic goal
is to undermine people's trust
in democratic institutions.
There is a narrative going on
that says only authoritarian There is a narrative going on
that says only authoritarian top-down systems
is able to tackle systemic challenges,
trying to say that democracy only leads to chaos.
Billion Lee, a student, became one of Audrey's digital warriors.
Is a lot of this coming from China?
Billion and her friends created this site
where thousands of facts can be checked automatically by bots.
100,000 facts?
Billion was angry about what she saw online.
Why did you decide to fight back
against the disinformation Why did you decide to fight back
against the disinformation you were seeing on the internet?
It wasn't just fake news online.
Inside Taiwan
China's supporters were using other tactics too.
(BAND PLAYS MARCHING RHYTHM)
Chang An-Lo's been campaigning for reunification with China
for 20 years.
He was also a leader of a criminal gang here.
He was also a leader He has deep connections
with one of the main triads, He has deep connections
with one of the main triads, organised crime in Taiwan,
with one of the main triads, known as the Bamboo Union.
Mr Chang spent years in a US prison on drug-trafficking charges
then had to flee Taiwan to mainland China.
The Bamboo Union has been implicated in recent years
in at least one assassination attempt against a Beijing critic
in at least one assassination here in Taiwan.
And the authorities here in Taiwan
were able to trace the money for that particular operation
back to the PRC.
Hi. Good afternoon.
Eh... Mr Chang?
Eh... Known as the 'White Wolf',
Mr Chang now heads a political party Known as the 'White Wolf',
Mr Chang now heads a political party calling for unification with China.
Mr Chang is accused
of receiving money directly from the People's Republic of China
of receiving money directly to carry out his activities.
Are you funded by China? to carry out his activities.
Are you funded by China? Is your party funded by China?
Mr Chang's followers turn up
when people gather to defend Taiwan's independence.
In 2017
a Chinese talent show staged at Taiwan University
a Chinese talent show sparked a student protest.
So, I realise there is a group of students,
so, they actually trying to boycott the show. So, I realise there is a group of students,
so, they actually trying to boycott the show.
They rush in and, uh...
..basically, they walk up the stage and say, "Stop."
The event was staged by Chinese TV from the mainland.
The students said it was a 'cultural influence operation'
The students said it was by the Communist Party.
Nolan Wu was just walking by.
And then I realised there is someone arguing
and I think they are getting kind of physical.
Mr Chang and his son Chang Wei
are keen to show me footage taken that day.
are keen to show me footage (INDISTINCT YELLING)
Amongst the fray
one man holds a baseball bat.
(INDISTINCT YELLING)
Chang Wei rushes out of a car towards the students.
He throws a punch,
and the other man He throws a punch,
and the other man hits out with the bat.
and the other man (INDISTINCT YELLING)
So, I got hit with a fist here
and then I got hit at my back with a baseball bat.
(INDISTINCT YELLING)
That's you, Chang Wei, there?
Did you use violence? Did you hit anybody?
(INDISTINCT YELLING)
So, what happened in the end?
Four students were taken to hospital. Nolan was one of them.
Four students were taken to hospital. I was really, really scared.
I was really, really like, "This I was really, really scared.
I was really, really like, "This should not happen here in Taiwan."
Chang Wei and the man with the bat
received detention orders for assault, later reduced to fines.
received detention orders (INDISTINCT YELLING)
Mr Chang still insists
he's just a politician who believes in reunification.
Do you think that one day there will be peaceful unifications
between China and Taiwan?
Two years on from her election victory,
Two years on it's 2018
and President Tsai's facing her first big test -
mid-term parliamentary elections.
As the campaign progressed,
her political opponents began to push a story.
They claimed Tsai had fabricated her PhD
from the London School of Economics.
A journalist even tried to find her thesis in the library there.
LIBRARIAN: I can try the author, if you want me to search by author?
LIBRARIAN: I can try the author, DENNIS PENG: Yeah. T-S-A-I.
Oh, it's not coming up DENNIS PENG: Yeah. T-S-A-I.
Oh, it's not coming up by author either.
Oh, it's not coming up China spotted an opportunity.
Finally the LSE confirmed she HAD earned her PhD there.
Finally the LSE confirmed (INDISTINCT CHATTER)
Tsai's fortunes (INDISTINCT CHATTER)
Tsai's fortunes were at an all-time low.
Her party lost the election, though she remained the President.
China was winning the war for hearts and minds without firing a shot.
(SOLDIERS CHANT IN MANDARIN)
Meanwhile, China was building up its military too,
though President Xi said he wanted peaceful reunification.
though President Xi said (DRILL COMMAND)
VICTOR GAO: Does anyone really expect
that President Xi Jinping will abandon the one-China policy?
that President Xi Jinping (SOLDIERS CHANT IN MANDARIN)
Absolutely not.
China's assertive stance alarmed America -
Taiwan's closest and most powerful ally.
Taiwan's closest Taiwan is a cork in a bottle.
Whoever controls Taiwan
controls the cork in that bottle.
It's important geographically,
it's important technically
because of the industry...
..and it's important because it's a significant and vibrant democracy.
America supplies Taiwan with weapons
but has always been careful not to openly support its independence.
but has always been careful not It's called 'strategic ambiguity'.
What strategic ambiguity is about
is being unclear as to what American actions would be
should Beijing move with force on Taiwan.
It blurs the calculus that Beijing would have to deal with.
The United States is illogical, illegitimate, illegal in a sense,
and it is very much misleading the whole world.
and it is very much misleading I think it's absolutely absurd
for the United States to be so-called 'ambiguous'
for the United States about the Taiwan situation.
They need to come up with clarity as to what exactly they want.
Taiwan's close links with the US military
has made it a target for Chinese espionage.
Captain Lu says he was approached
with an offer of an all-expenses-paid Captain Lu says he was approached
with an offer of an all-expenses-paid trip to the mainland.
He says he refused the offer,
but Chinese agents
have wined and dined and turned dozens of military officers.
Chinese intelligence services
have used honey-traps to snare their prey.
China has even targeted President Tsai herself,
infiltrating her innermost protection ring.
Two officers from her security detail were found guilty of spying on her.
Though the Chinese mainland
is just across the water,
the People's Liberation Army would is just across the water,
the People's Liberation Army would find it difficult to invade Taiwan.
The island has a spine of high and rugged mountains.
It's only when you get up here in the mountains
that you realise what an incredible, natural, geographical
that you realise what defensive position Taiwan has
even though it's one of the most densely populated countries
in the world.
Taiwan is building up a bristling array of formidable weapons,
all part of what they call their 'Porcupine Strategy'.
Taiwan may have these advanced weapons,
but Chinese forces are 12 times bigger.
(BOOMING)
Taiwan has been slow to arm itself.
It still depends heavily on America for advanced weapons.
GARY ROUGHEAD: The idea is to begin to take advantage
of the technology that's available today,
to be able to put in place small numbers of weapon systems
to be able to put in place that, for want of a better term,
could shred an invading force that wanted to come across the beaches.
After her party's poor election showing,
After her party's President Tsai is under pressure.
President Xi is about to show Taiwan he means business.
PROTESTERS: (CHANT) Free Hong Kong! Free Hong Kong!
Taiwan watched as China took back control
Taiwan watched of another wayward territory -
Hong Kong.
A pro-democracy movement was ruthlessly put down there.
(MILITARY BAND PLAYS STRIDENT MUSIC)
The events in Hong Kong
revived President Tsai's fortunes just in time.
She was reaching the end of her four-year term in office
and was now campaigning for re-election.
China has been selling
the so-called 'one country, two systems' model to Taiwan,
and they try to show that it's workable,
how it's working in Hong Kong,
so, it should be applicable to Taiwan.
But, you know, it turned out not to be the case.
So, it becomes a very difficult product
for Beijing to sell to the people in Taiwan.
The President already had the support of the younger generation,
but Hong Kong changed views across Taiwanese society.
but Hong Kong changed views (BALLAD PLAYS)
In the parks here
older residents gather In the parks here
older residents gather for their daily dancing sessions.
Many of them, or their parents, came from mainland China.
Many of them, or their parents, (BALLAD PLAYS)
This generation didn't use to be strongly in favour of independence.
It's different now.
China's heavy-handed approach to Taiwan,
as we've seen in places like Hong Kong as well, China's heavy-handed approach to Taiwan,
as we've seen in places like Hong Kong as well,
has actually backfired.
So, rather than win the hearts has actually backfired.
So, rather than win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese,
it ends up alienating them
and further compounding a desire amongst the Taiwanese
to defend their way of life and their democracy.
to defend their way of life (CHEERING)
After the events in Hong Kong,
in 2020 Tsai Ing-Wen wins her second presidential term with a landslide.
After Tsai Ing-wen is re-elected
China steps up it's military activity in the Taiwan Strait.
Xi Jinping repeats his warning.
Tsai responds on Taiwan's National Day.
America sends warships through the strait.
America sends warships 'Strategic ambiguity'
now becomes a firm pledge
to come to Taiwan's defence if China attacks.
(ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS)
ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: The stalemate (ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS)
ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: The stalemate in the Taiwan Strait continues.
ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: The stalemate It's happened before in the 1950s.
Batteries on red China's mainland
have almost sealed off the island from help.
(EXPLOSION)
When Chinese artillery
bombarded Taiwanese islands closest to the mainland
bombarded Taiwanese islands America stepped in.
Kinmen was one of those islands,
only a few miles from China Kinmen was one of those islands,
only a few miles from China in the Taiwan Strait.
(BIRDS SQUAWK)
You can see the mainland and the skyscrapers of a Chinese city
from Kinmen's beaches.
This place has borne the brunt of war with its neighbour for decades.
These rusting relics hold memories of an earlier conflict
that people here hoped they'd never see again.
Kinmen's still on the front line.
Councillor Tung Sen-Pao knows everyone here.
What do people here feel about China? It's so close, just over the water.
Local people are ambivalent about their relationship with China today.
Wu Tseng-Dong grew up under fire.
Now he makes his living
turning old shells into knives
for sale to Chinese tourists from the mainland.
In the local market
memories of the last war with China In the local market
memories of the last war with China are still strong.
But there are also close family and economic ties with the mainland...
..and more support here for reunification.
(CADENCE CALLS)
Chinese tourists are trickling back to wartime sites here
Chinese tourists are trickling back after the pandemic.
They're a vital economic lifeline for the island,
which now capitalises on its troubled history.
which now capitalises (CALLS IN TAIWANESE MANDARIN)
(GUN FIRES)
In Kinmen they still feel like a pawn between the superpowers.
China doesn't treat any of the strait as Taiwan's territorial water.
Out there in the sea is the median line -
the invisible boundary between Taiwan and China.
It was defined by America
but has never been recognised by China.
There are massive Chinese dredgers here
digging up sand to build infrastructure on the mainland.
They also create new islands and military outposts in the Pacific.
These dredgers are stretching almost as far as I can see.
I've counted more than a dozen and there are more up ahead.
(SIREN WAILS)
(SPEAKS MANDARIN)
In just three years
the number of dredgers expelled by the Taiwanese coastguard
the number of dredgers expelled has gone up from 600 to nearly 4,000.
Dredgers have damaged internet cables on the seabed
connecting Taiwan with the rest of the world.
connecting Taiwan (SPEAKS MANDARIN)
China's accused of using vessels like this
in a campaign of grey-zone warfare.
GARY ROUGHEAD: What Beijing is doing
is creating an environment GARY ROUGHEAD: What Beijing is doing
is creating an environment
where they can be much more aware
of everything that is moving above, on and under the water,
which would give them tremendous advantage
should there be a conflict in the strait.
An invasion, a naval blockade,
destruction of global communication links.
destruction A lot's at stake here.
If there were to be war A lot's at stake here.
If there were to be war in the Taiwan Strait,
the impact, if only in economic terms,
would be in the trillions of dollars for the first year,
would be in the trillions of dollars not to mention the fact
that the Chinese would then access
the world's key producer that the Chinese would then access
the world's key producer of the most advanced semiconductors
that now fuel the entire global economy.
90% of advanced semiconductors -
the chips we all use in our digital devices -
are made in Taiwan.
America's racing to build chip factories in Arizona
America's racing to build with Taiwanese partners,
but it will take years.
China's top priority is to develop its own high-end chip industry.
There have been accusations of dirty tricks here too.
J MICHAEL COLE: So, there was human espionage.
J MICHAEL COLE: They have recruited individuals,
offered them large sums of money
to be employed in semiconductor firms back in China
but also with them in their luggage would carry hard drives
that contain plans for semiconductors
and try to replicate that back in China.
But China still relies heavily on Taiwan's advanced technology.
This science park near Taipei full of semiconductor companies
This science park near Taipei is Taiwan's jewel in the crown.
Some see it as a silicon shield
because it's just too valuable to damage or destroy.
China ramps up its military activity in the Taiwan Strait in 2022.
In February there's a wake-up call.
LO CHIH-CHENG: The Russian invasion of Ukraine
alarmed a lot of people in Taiwan. LO CHIH-CHENG: The Russian invasion of Ukraine
alarmed a lot of people in Taiwan.
In other words,
war is not unthinkable.
So, people begin to believe
that we should prepare ourselves for the worst-case scenario.
That's one lesson we learnt from the Ukrainian war.
(GUNFIRE)
Taiwan's young people are realising
they too may have to defend their homeland.
they too (GUNFIRE)
This is Camp 66 - a civilian defence training unit.
(GUNSHOT)
They're drawing lessons here from what happened in Ukraine -
a citizen force galvanised into action against an invader
and holding fast against all expectations.
The number of people paying to come to private camps like this
The number of people paying quadrupled in the past year.
Compulsory military service has been increased from four to twelve months.
I hope that I don't need these skills.
I hope I don't ever need to do this at all.
But, when it comes to it, I need to be prepared.
But, when it comes to it, You're determined to fight?
I think so. This is my home. This is my family. Yeah, I should.
Ukraine taught Taiwan it was vital to stay connected in the event of war.
They're developing their own satellite network
They're developing to keep communications going.
As tension increased in the strait last summer,
a top US politician, Nancy Pelosi, made a controversial visit to Taiwan.
a top US politician, Nancy Pelosi, (CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK)
During her visit
there another wave of cyber attacks.
Electronic boards at train stations and thousands of convenience stores
Electronic boards at train stations were hijacked.
She was branded a witch, a warmonger.
Nancy Pelosi's illegitimate visit to Taiwan She was branded a witch, a warmonger.
Nancy Pelosi's illegitimate visit to Taiwan
was only serving one purpose
and one purpose only -
she was encouraging Taiwan independence.
she was encouraging (CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK)
J MICHAEL COLE: The visit coincided
with emerging signs of instability in China, J MICHAEL COLE: The visit coincided
with emerging signs of instability in China,
with emerging signs a slowing economy, and Xi Jinping,
who was seeking a third term later in the year as well.
So, anything that appeared as a slap in the face,
that undermined his hard-line position on Taiwan
was also something that was deemed provocative.
(BOOMING)
Hours after Nancy Pelosi left
China launched live-fire exercises unprecedented in recent history.
Eleven missiles landed in Taiwan's territorial waters
and flew over the island
eastwards towards Japan. and flew over the island
eastwards towards Japan.
(CALLS IN MANDARIN)
Was it wise for her to come?
Wasn't it just antagonising China unnecessarily?
I think China just used that as a pretext
to justify its military excesses in the region.
China will do it with or without Nancy Pelosi's visit.
It just used them as an excuse.
Chinese jets crossed the invisible boundary in the Taiwan Strait...
Chinese jets crossed the invisible (CALLS IN MANDARIN)
..to show it would never deter them.
VICTOR GAO: China has demonstrated ..to show it would never deter them.
VICTOR GAO: China has demonstrated to the United States
that China has the military capabilities
that China to completely encircle Taiwan,
to cutting off its connection by sea or by air if necessary
to cutting off its connection with the rest of the world,
and China has the political will with the rest of the world,
and China has the political will as well as military capabilities
to achieve national reunification by force if it is necessary.
Life goes on here,
though China keeps ratcheting up the threat.
(TINKLING)
President Tsai is in the last year of her final term,
President Tsai is in the last year and many people are fearful.
(PLAYS INTRO)
Fire EX still play the song they wrote a nearly a decade ago.
Fire EX still play the song (BAND PLAYS ROCK MUSIC)
They believe their fight for independence
is even more vital today.
(SINGS IN TAIWANESE MANDARIN)
Sam, if there was military action by China, even an invasion,
Sam, if there was military action would you fight for Taiwan?
Sure.
(GENTLE MUSIC PLAYS OVER LOUDSPEAKER)
(GENTLE MUSIC On Kinmen Island
propaganda songs played during the war in the '50s
still drift across the strait at night...
(GENTLE MUSIC PLAYS OVER LOUDSPEAKER)
..a ghostly echo of the unfinished business between China and Taiwan.
(GENTLE MUSIC PLAYS OVER LOUDSPEAKER)
You have two nuclear powers - US and China.
So, it's not just a war between Taiwan and China.
There could be a disaster for the region and even for the whole world.
How likely is that, do you think, from where we sit now?
Well, again, the ball is not in our court.
Well, again, The ball is in Beijing's court.
How can any power The ball is in Beijing's court.
How can any power in the world of today
really believe they have the wherewithal
really believe to take Taiwan away from China?
This is a mission impossible.
This is a mission, if it is done or executed,
may lead directly to Armageddon.
(BIRDS TWITTER)
The last seven years
have turned most Taiwanese against The last seven years
have turned most Taiwanese against reunification with the mainland.
China is running out of options to solve its Taiwan problem peacefully.
Captions by Red Bee Media
Copyright Australian Broadcasting Corporation