1 00:00:15,860 --> 00:00:18,180 (BIRDS SQUAWK) 2 00:00:19,380 --> 00:00:21,620 JANE CORBIN: This narrow stretch of water 3 00:00:21,620 --> 00:00:21,860 JANE CORBIN: is all that separates 4 00:00:21,860 --> 00:00:23,100 is all that separates 5 00:00:23,100 --> 00:00:27,020 the People's Republic of China, ruled by the Communist Party, 6 00:00:27,020 --> 00:00:31,620 from Taiwan, one of Asia's most successful democracies. 7 00:00:37,740 --> 00:00:41,060 What happens out here in the Taiwan Strait 8 00:00:41,060 --> 00:00:41,300 What happens out here isn't just about Taiwan and China. 9 00:00:41,300 --> 00:00:43,980 isn't just about Taiwan and China. 10 00:00:43,980 --> 00:00:44,220 It's got the potential to spark a global conflict isn't just about Taiwan and China. 11 00:00:44,220 --> 00:00:47,620 It's got the potential to spark a global conflict 12 00:00:47,620 --> 00:00:49,300 that could threaten all of us. 13 00:00:49,300 --> 00:00:49,500 that could threaten all of us. (LOUD BLASTS) 14 00:00:49,500 --> 00:00:53,380 (LOUD BLASTS) 15 00:00:53,380 --> 00:00:55,380 J MICHAEL COLE: Certainly the Taiwan Strait right now 16 00:00:55,380 --> 00:01:00,940 is one of the most dangerous and unstable flashpoints 17 00:01:00,940 --> 00:01:04,660 that is facing our world today and for years to come. 18 00:01:04,660 --> 00:01:06,460 GARY ROUGHEAD: Taiwan is a cork in a bottle. 19 00:01:06,460 --> 00:01:06,700 GARY ROUGHEAD: Whoever controls Taiwan 20 00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:07,980 Whoever controls Taiwan 21 00:01:07,980 --> 00:01:11,140 controls the cork in that bottle. 22 00:01:12,100 --> 00:01:13,940 China says it's time 23 00:01:13,940 --> 00:01:14,180 for its breakaway province China says it's time 24 00:01:14,180 --> 00:01:17,620 for its breakaway province to return to the motherland. 25 00:01:21,900 --> 00:01:24,660 But Taiwan is standing up to China. 26 00:01:27,540 --> 00:01:32,300 I've been reporting on conflicts in the Pacific region for decades, 27 00:01:32,300 --> 00:01:36,700 but now this could just be the most dangerous place on earth. 28 00:01:36,700 --> 00:01:39,660 LO CHIH-CHENG: You have two nuclear powers - 29 00:01:39,660 --> 00:01:39,900 LO CHIH-CHENG: US and China. 30 00:01:39,900 --> 00:01:41,740 US and China. 31 00:01:41,740 --> 00:01:46,780 There could be a disaster for the region and even for the whole world. 32 00:02:18,180 --> 00:02:22,180 2016 - Tsai Ing-wen is elected President. 33 00:02:22,180 --> 00:02:22,420 2016 - (CHEERING) 34 00:02:22,420 --> 00:02:27,420 (CHEERING) 35 00:02:27,420 --> 00:02:30,580 She's the first woman to run Taiwan. 36 00:02:30,580 --> 00:02:33,100 A new era begins. 37 00:02:34,180 --> 00:02:37,540 Her election is unprecedented in another way. 38 00:02:37,540 --> 00:02:42,980 She openly refuses to accept the idea that Taiwan is a province of China. 39 00:02:42,980 --> 00:02:45,780 For her, this is an independent country. 40 00:02:47,620 --> 00:02:50,180 In China the reaction is swift. 41 00:02:50,180 --> 00:02:53,460 President Xi Jinping cuts relations. 42 00:03:10,300 --> 00:03:13,180 (APPLAUSE) 43 00:03:14,140 --> 00:03:18,100 The desire of the Taiwanese for a more independent future 44 00:03:18,100 --> 00:03:20,340 reverberates across the world. 45 00:03:20,340 --> 00:03:21,500 (CHEERING) 46 00:03:21,500 --> 00:03:23,380 One China, one Taiwan! 47 00:03:23,380 --> 00:03:27,900 Taiwan is a country! It's my country! Yeah! Yeah! 48 00:03:27,900 --> 00:03:30,140 Taiwan is Taiwan and China is China. 49 00:03:30,140 --> 00:03:31,060 Yes. 50 00:03:31,060 --> 00:03:33,620 Young people voted overwhelmingly 51 00:03:33,620 --> 00:03:37,020 for Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party. 52 00:03:54,700 --> 00:03:58,180 (BAND PLAYS ROCK BALLAD) 53 00:03:58,180 --> 00:03:58,420 Fire EX played (BAND PLAYS ROCK BALLAD) 54 00:03:58,420 --> 00:04:02,300 Fire EX played at the President's inauguration. 55 00:04:14,340 --> 00:04:17,820 The band put politics at the heart of their music. 56 00:04:27,620 --> 00:04:31,460 (BAND CONTINUES PLAYING ROCK BALLAD) 57 00:04:45,460 --> 00:04:47,860 Tsai Ing-wen and her inner circle 58 00:04:47,860 --> 00:04:52,380 are always careful not to call publicly for independence. 59 00:04:52,380 --> 00:04:54,140 First of all, we emphasise 60 00:04:54,140 --> 00:04:54,380 that Taiwan HAS been an independent country, First of all, we emphasise 61 00:04:54,380 --> 00:04:58,060 that Taiwan HAS been an independent country, 62 00:04:58,060 --> 00:04:59,860 so, there's no need now 63 00:04:59,860 --> 00:05:00,100 so, there's no need now to declare again the independence of Taiwan. 64 00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:02,620 to declare again the independence of Taiwan. 65 00:05:02,620 --> 00:05:02,860 to declare again But we understand and we emphasise 66 00:05:02,860 --> 00:05:04,780 But we understand and we emphasise 67 00:05:04,780 --> 00:05:08,220 that the people in Taiwan should have the final say 68 00:05:08,220 --> 00:05:11,460 about a solution to the so-called Taiwan problem. 69 00:05:11,460 --> 00:05:14,940 (ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS) 70 00:05:14,940 --> 00:05:18,460 The Taiwan problem began in 1949. 71 00:05:18,460 --> 00:05:21,300 The Communists under Mao Tse-tung 72 00:05:21,300 --> 00:05:24,300 forced the Nationalist Government out of China. 73 00:05:25,260 --> 00:05:27,500 ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: One stronghold after another 74 00:05:27,500 --> 00:05:29,740 has fallen to the advancing reds. 75 00:05:29,740 --> 00:05:34,060 General Chiang Kai Shek fled to the neighbouring island, 76 00:05:34,060 --> 00:05:37,100 taking over a million people with him. 77 00:05:37,100 --> 00:05:37,340 taking over a million people War of one kind or another 78 00:05:37,340 --> 00:05:38,820 War of one kind or another 79 00:05:38,820 --> 00:05:39,060 has been their lot War of one kind or another 80 00:05:39,060 --> 00:05:42,100 has been their lot pretty well all their lifetime. 81 00:05:42,100 --> 00:05:46,140 He declared Taiwan, just 100 hundred miles off the mainland, 82 00:05:46,140 --> 00:05:46,380 He declared Taiwan, just the independent Republic of China. 83 00:05:46,380 --> 00:05:49,340 the independent Republic of China. 84 00:05:49,340 --> 00:05:52,780 (ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS) 85 00:05:54,100 --> 00:05:58,060 Today, it's only officially recognised as a sovereign nation 86 00:05:58,060 --> 00:05:58,300 Today, it's only officially by 13 countries. 87 00:05:58,300 --> 00:06:00,540 by 13 countries. 88 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:02,940 Victor Gao, a former diplomat, 89 00:06:02,940 --> 00:06:06,340 is regarded as a spokesman for the Chinese Government. 90 00:06:06,340 --> 00:06:06,580 From the very beginning in 1949 is regarded as a spokesman for the Chinese Government. 91 00:06:06,580 --> 00:06:10,740 From the very beginning in 1949 92 00:06:10,740 --> 00:06:12,740 China has always been 93 00:06:12,740 --> 00:06:12,980 China has always been calling for the reunification of Taiwan. 94 00:06:12,980 --> 00:06:16,300 calling for the reunification of Taiwan. 95 00:06:16,300 --> 00:06:20,260 There is only one China, and Taiwan is part of China, 96 00:06:20,260 --> 00:06:24,540 and people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese people - 97 00:06:24,540 --> 00:06:30,580 same blood, same civilisation, same culture, same people. 98 00:06:39,820 --> 00:06:42,700 23 million people live in Taiwan, 99 00:06:42,700 --> 00:06:46,540 one of the richest and most dynamic democracies in the world. 100 00:06:46,540 --> 00:06:46,780 one of the richest and most dynamic Its high-tech industries 101 00:06:46,780 --> 00:06:48,420 Its high-tech industries 102 00:06:48,420 --> 00:06:51,900 have made it one of the most digitally connected societies too. 103 00:06:53,660 --> 00:06:55,540 China seized advantage of that 104 00:06:55,540 --> 00:06:58,740 when Tsai Ing-wen moved into the Presidential Palace 105 00:06:58,740 --> 00:06:58,980 when Tsai Ing-wen in the capital, Taipei. 106 00:06:58,980 --> 00:07:01,220 in the capital, Taipei. 107 00:07:01,220 --> 00:07:03,420 From the moment she was first elected 108 00:07:03,420 --> 00:07:04,820 the President and her government 109 00:07:04,820 --> 00:07:09,340 became a thorn in the side of China and the Chinese Communist Party. 110 00:07:09,340 --> 00:07:09,580 became a thorn in the side of China Their reaction? 111 00:07:09,580 --> 00:07:10,820 Their reaction? 112 00:07:10,820 --> 00:07:15,900 A campaign of misinformation, intimidation and dirty tricks. 113 00:07:29,660 --> 00:07:31,500 Puma Shen and his team 114 00:07:31,500 --> 00:07:36,100 investigate attacks and disinformation online. 115 00:07:51,260 --> 00:07:53,940 And where is most of this disinformation coming from? 116 00:08:12,820 --> 00:08:18,260 President Tsai got Taiwan's digital community involved in the fightback. 117 00:08:18,260 --> 00:08:22,100 AUDREY TANG: No country is an island in cyberspace, not even Taiwan. 118 00:08:22,100 --> 00:08:22,340 AUDREY TANG: No country is an island (LAUGHS) So, we stand ready. 119 00:08:22,340 --> 00:08:24,380 (LAUGHS) So, we stand ready. 120 00:08:25,540 --> 00:08:30,500 Audrey Tang, a former hacker and Taiwan's first trans Minister, 121 00:08:30,500 --> 00:08:33,900 is battling the online attacks from Communist China. 122 00:08:33,900 --> 00:08:36,660 AUDREY TANG: I think the main strategic goal 123 00:08:36,660 --> 00:08:36,900 is to undermine people's trust AUDREY TANG: I think the main strategic goal 124 00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:39,940 is to undermine people's trust 125 00:08:39,940 --> 00:08:42,340 in democratic institutions. 126 00:08:42,340 --> 00:08:44,340 There is a narrative going on 127 00:08:44,340 --> 00:08:44,580 that says only authoritarian There is a narrative going on 128 00:08:44,580 --> 00:08:47,740 that says only authoritarian top-down systems 129 00:08:47,740 --> 00:08:51,700 is able to tackle systemic challenges, 130 00:08:51,700 --> 00:08:55,140 trying to say that democracy only leads to chaos. 131 00:08:56,100 --> 00:09:01,540 Billion Lee, a student, became one of Audrey's digital warriors. 132 00:09:01,540 --> 00:09:04,420 Is a lot of this coming from China? 133 00:09:17,980 --> 00:09:20,940 Billion and her friends created this site 134 00:09:20,940 --> 00:09:26,220 where thousands of facts can be checked automatically by bots. 135 00:09:34,900 --> 00:09:36,420 100,000 facts? 136 00:09:42,940 --> 00:09:46,660 Billion was angry about what she saw online. 137 00:10:17,780 --> 00:10:20,340 Why did you decide to fight back 138 00:10:20,340 --> 00:10:20,580 against the disinformation Why did you decide to fight back 139 00:10:20,580 --> 00:10:23,460 against the disinformation you were seeing on the internet? 140 00:10:42,100 --> 00:10:45,260 It wasn't just fake news online. 141 00:10:45,260 --> 00:10:46,820 Inside Taiwan 142 00:10:46,820 --> 00:10:50,380 China's supporters were using other tactics too. 143 00:10:50,380 --> 00:10:54,660 (BAND PLAYS MARCHING RHYTHM) 144 00:10:54,660 --> 00:10:58,940 Chang An-Lo's been campaigning for reunification with China 145 00:10:58,940 --> 00:11:00,540 for 20 years. 146 00:11:00,540 --> 00:11:04,460 He was also a leader of a criminal gang here. 147 00:11:04,460 --> 00:11:04,700 He was also a leader He has deep connections 148 00:11:04,700 --> 00:11:06,740 He has deep connections 149 00:11:06,740 --> 00:11:06,980 with one of the main triads, He has deep connections 150 00:11:06,980 --> 00:11:11,420 with one of the main triads, organised crime in Taiwan, 151 00:11:11,420 --> 00:11:11,660 with one of the main triads, known as the Bamboo Union. 152 00:11:11,660 --> 00:11:12,980 known as the Bamboo Union. 153 00:11:14,540 --> 00:11:19,820 Mr Chang spent years in a US prison on drug-trafficking charges 154 00:11:19,820 --> 00:11:23,460 then had to flee Taiwan to mainland China. 155 00:11:24,420 --> 00:11:26,940 The Bamboo Union has been implicated in recent years 156 00:11:26,940 --> 00:11:30,860 in at least one assassination attempt against a Beijing critic 157 00:11:30,860 --> 00:11:31,100 in at least one assassination here in Taiwan. 158 00:11:31,100 --> 00:11:32,340 here in Taiwan. 159 00:11:32,340 --> 00:11:34,420 And the authorities here in Taiwan 160 00:11:34,420 --> 00:11:37,900 were able to trace the money for that particular operation 161 00:11:37,900 --> 00:11:39,300 back to the PRC. 162 00:11:45,580 --> 00:11:48,020 Hi. Good afternoon. 163 00:11:48,020 --> 00:11:49,740 Eh... Mr Chang? 164 00:11:49,740 --> 00:11:49,980 Eh... Known as the 'White Wolf', 165 00:11:49,980 --> 00:11:51,900 Known as the 'White Wolf', 166 00:11:51,900 --> 00:11:52,140 Mr Chang now heads a political party Known as the 'White Wolf', 167 00:11:52,140 --> 00:11:57,460 Mr Chang now heads a political party calling for unification with China. 168 00:12:18,900 --> 00:12:20,540 Mr Chang is accused 169 00:12:20,540 --> 00:12:24,540 of receiving money directly from the People's Republic of China 170 00:12:24,540 --> 00:12:24,780 of receiving money directly to carry out his activities. 171 00:12:24,780 --> 00:12:27,420 to carry out his activities. 172 00:12:27,420 --> 00:12:27,660 Are you funded by China? to carry out his activities. 173 00:12:27,660 --> 00:12:31,180 Are you funded by China? Is your party funded by China? 174 00:12:49,020 --> 00:12:51,020 Mr Chang's followers turn up 175 00:12:51,020 --> 00:12:55,540 when people gather to defend Taiwan's independence. 176 00:12:56,500 --> 00:12:58,100 In 2017 177 00:12:58,100 --> 00:13:01,740 a Chinese talent show staged at Taiwan University 178 00:13:01,740 --> 00:13:01,980 a Chinese talent show sparked a student protest. 179 00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:03,860 sparked a student protest. 180 00:13:03,860 --> 00:13:07,020 So, I realise there is a group of students, 181 00:13:07,020 --> 00:13:07,300 so, they actually trying to boycott the show. So, I realise there is a group of students, 182 00:13:07,300 --> 00:13:10,660 so, they actually trying to boycott the show. 183 00:13:10,660 --> 00:13:12,940 They rush in and, uh... 184 00:13:12,940 --> 00:13:13,180 They rush in and, uh... ..basically, they walk up the stage and say, "Stop." 185 00:13:13,180 --> 00:13:15,980 ..basically, they walk up the stage and say, "Stop." 186 00:13:16,940 --> 00:13:20,940 The event was staged by Chinese TV from the mainland. 187 00:13:22,220 --> 00:13:25,620 The students said it was a 'cultural influence operation' 188 00:13:25,620 --> 00:13:25,860 The students said it was by the Communist Party. 189 00:13:25,860 --> 00:13:27,900 by the Communist Party. 190 00:13:27,900 --> 00:13:31,020 Nolan Wu was just walking by. 191 00:13:31,020 --> 00:13:34,860 And then I realised there is someone arguing 192 00:13:34,860 --> 00:13:37,260 and I think they are getting kind of physical. 193 00:13:37,260 --> 00:13:40,100 Mr Chang and his son Chang Wei 194 00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:43,100 are keen to show me footage taken that day. 195 00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:43,340 are keen to show me footage (INDISTINCT YELLING) 196 00:13:43,340 --> 00:13:46,500 (INDISTINCT YELLING) 197 00:13:46,500 --> 00:13:47,980 Amongst the fray 198 00:13:47,980 --> 00:13:51,180 one man holds a baseball bat. 199 00:13:51,180 --> 00:13:53,540 (INDISTINCT YELLING) 200 00:13:55,140 --> 00:13:59,020 Chang Wei rushes out of a car towards the students. 201 00:14:01,620 --> 00:14:03,180 He throws a punch, 202 00:14:03,180 --> 00:14:03,420 and the other man He throws a punch, 203 00:14:03,420 --> 00:14:05,700 and the other man hits out with the bat. 204 00:14:05,700 --> 00:14:05,940 and the other man (INDISTINCT YELLING) 205 00:14:05,940 --> 00:14:08,660 (INDISTINCT YELLING) 206 00:14:08,660 --> 00:14:14,500 So, I got hit with a fist here 207 00:14:14,500 --> 00:14:19,020 and then I got hit at my back with a baseball bat. 208 00:14:19,020 --> 00:14:21,260 (INDISTINCT YELLING) 209 00:14:22,660 --> 00:14:24,180 That's you, Chang Wei, there? 210 00:14:26,140 --> 00:14:29,020 Did you use violence? Did you hit anybody? 211 00:14:34,420 --> 00:14:38,660 (INDISTINCT YELLING) 212 00:14:38,660 --> 00:14:40,260 So, what happened in the end? 213 00:14:48,380 --> 00:14:53,300 Four students were taken to hospital. Nolan was one of them. 214 00:14:53,300 --> 00:14:53,540 Four students were taken to hospital. I was really, really scared. 215 00:14:53,540 --> 00:14:55,060 I was really, really scared. 216 00:14:55,060 --> 00:14:55,300 I was really, really like, "This I was really, really scared. 217 00:14:55,300 --> 00:14:59,940 I was really, really like, "This should not happen here in Taiwan." 218 00:15:00,900 --> 00:15:02,700 Chang Wei and the man with the bat 219 00:15:02,700 --> 00:15:07,380 received detention orders for assault, later reduced to fines. 220 00:15:07,380 --> 00:15:07,620 received detention orders (INDISTINCT YELLING) 221 00:15:07,620 --> 00:15:08,860 (INDISTINCT YELLING) 222 00:15:10,420 --> 00:15:12,180 Mr Chang still insists 223 00:15:12,180 --> 00:15:16,500 he's just a politician who believes in reunification. 224 00:15:21,340 --> 00:15:24,660 Do you think that one day there will be peaceful unifications 225 00:15:24,660 --> 00:15:26,380 between China and Taiwan? 226 00:15:44,020 --> 00:15:46,900 Two years on from her election victory, 227 00:15:46,900 --> 00:15:47,140 Two years on it's 2018 228 00:15:47,140 --> 00:15:48,500 it's 2018 229 00:15:48,500 --> 00:15:51,620 and President Tsai's facing her first big test - 230 00:15:51,620 --> 00:15:54,620 mid-term parliamentary elections. 231 00:16:09,860 --> 00:16:11,660 As the campaign progressed, 232 00:16:11,660 --> 00:16:15,300 her political opponents began to push a story. 233 00:16:15,300 --> 00:16:18,860 They claimed Tsai had fabricated her PhD 234 00:16:18,860 --> 00:16:21,340 from the London School of Economics. 235 00:16:22,300 --> 00:16:26,660 A journalist even tried to find her thesis in the library there. 236 00:16:26,660 --> 00:16:30,980 LIBRARIAN: I can try the author, if you want me to search by author? 237 00:16:30,980 --> 00:16:31,220 LIBRARIAN: I can try the author, DENNIS PENG: Yeah. T-S-A-I. 238 00:16:31,220 --> 00:16:33,460 DENNIS PENG: Yeah. T-S-A-I. 239 00:16:33,460 --> 00:16:33,700 Oh, it's not coming up DENNIS PENG: Yeah. T-S-A-I. 240 00:16:33,700 --> 00:16:36,180 Oh, it's not coming up by author either. 241 00:16:36,180 --> 00:16:36,420 Oh, it's not coming up China spotted an opportunity. 242 00:16:36,420 --> 00:16:38,820 China spotted an opportunity. 243 00:17:05,180 --> 00:17:10,020 Finally the LSE confirmed she HAD earned her PhD there. 244 00:17:10,020 --> 00:17:10,260 Finally the LSE confirmed (INDISTINCT CHATTER) 245 00:17:10,260 --> 00:17:13,100 (INDISTINCT CHATTER) 246 00:17:13,100 --> 00:17:13,340 Tsai's fortunes (INDISTINCT CHATTER) 247 00:17:13,340 --> 00:17:15,900 Tsai's fortunes were at an all-time low. 248 00:17:15,900 --> 00:17:20,500 Her party lost the election, though she remained the President. 249 00:17:26,340 --> 00:17:31,100 China was winning the war for hearts and minds without firing a shot. 250 00:17:48,100 --> 00:17:54,180 (SOLDIERS CHANT IN MANDARIN) 251 00:17:54,180 --> 00:17:58,500 Meanwhile, China was building up its military too, 252 00:17:58,500 --> 00:18:02,300 though President Xi said he wanted peaceful reunification. 253 00:18:02,300 --> 00:18:02,540 though President Xi said (DRILL COMMAND) 254 00:18:02,540 --> 00:18:04,340 (DRILL COMMAND) 255 00:18:07,580 --> 00:18:09,380 VICTOR GAO: Does anyone really expect 256 00:18:09,380 --> 00:18:12,660 that President Xi Jinping will abandon the one-China policy? 257 00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:12,900 that President Xi Jinping (SOLDIERS CHANT IN MANDARIN) 258 00:18:12,900 --> 00:18:15,300 (SOLDIERS CHANT IN MANDARIN) 259 00:18:15,300 --> 00:18:17,500 Absolutely not. 260 00:18:22,180 --> 00:18:25,340 China's assertive stance alarmed America - 261 00:18:25,340 --> 00:18:28,860 Taiwan's closest and most powerful ally. 262 00:18:28,860 --> 00:18:29,100 Taiwan's closest Taiwan is a cork in a bottle. 263 00:18:29,100 --> 00:18:31,380 Taiwan is a cork in a bottle. 264 00:18:32,780 --> 00:18:35,500 Whoever controls Taiwan 265 00:18:35,500 --> 00:18:39,180 controls the cork in that bottle. 266 00:18:39,180 --> 00:18:41,580 It's important geographically, 267 00:18:41,580 --> 00:18:43,860 it's important technically 268 00:18:43,860 --> 00:18:45,380 because of the industry... 269 00:18:46,820 --> 00:18:51,140 ..and it's important because it's a significant and vibrant democracy. 270 00:18:52,780 --> 00:18:55,940 America supplies Taiwan with weapons 271 00:18:55,940 --> 00:19:00,260 but has always been careful not to openly support its independence. 272 00:19:00,260 --> 00:19:00,500 but has always been careful not It's called 'strategic ambiguity'. 273 00:19:00,500 --> 00:19:03,660 It's called 'strategic ambiguity'. 274 00:19:03,660 --> 00:19:06,700 What strategic ambiguity is about 275 00:19:06,700 --> 00:19:12,740 is being unclear as to what American actions would be 276 00:19:12,740 --> 00:19:16,580 should Beijing move with force on Taiwan. 277 00:19:16,580 --> 00:19:21,580 It blurs the calculus that Beijing would have to deal with. 278 00:19:21,580 --> 00:19:27,580 The United States is illogical, illegitimate, illegal in a sense, 279 00:19:27,580 --> 00:19:31,420 and it is very much misleading the whole world. 280 00:19:31,420 --> 00:19:31,660 and it is very much misleading I think it's absolutely absurd 281 00:19:31,660 --> 00:19:34,620 I think it's absolutely absurd 282 00:19:34,620 --> 00:19:37,740 for the United States to be so-called 'ambiguous' 283 00:19:37,740 --> 00:19:37,980 for the United States about the Taiwan situation. 284 00:19:37,980 --> 00:19:39,540 about the Taiwan situation. 285 00:19:39,540 --> 00:19:43,340 They need to come up with clarity as to what exactly they want. 286 00:19:54,700 --> 00:19:57,420 Taiwan's close links with the US military 287 00:19:57,420 --> 00:20:01,700 has made it a target for Chinese espionage. 288 00:20:16,260 --> 00:20:18,180 Captain Lu says he was approached 289 00:20:18,180 --> 00:20:18,420 with an offer of an all-expenses-paid Captain Lu says he was approached 290 00:20:18,420 --> 00:20:22,340 with an offer of an all-expenses-paid trip to the mainland. 291 00:20:40,180 --> 00:20:42,540 He says he refused the offer, 292 00:20:42,540 --> 00:20:44,180 but Chinese agents 293 00:20:44,180 --> 00:20:48,940 have wined and dined and turned dozens of military officers. 294 00:21:03,180 --> 00:21:05,180 Chinese intelligence services 295 00:21:05,180 --> 00:21:08,900 have used honey-traps to snare their prey. 296 00:21:31,860 --> 00:21:35,740 China has even targeted President Tsai herself, 297 00:21:35,740 --> 00:21:39,420 infiltrating her innermost protection ring. 298 00:21:39,420 --> 00:21:43,620 Two officers from her security detail were found guilty of spying on her. 299 00:22:08,380 --> 00:22:10,100 Though the Chinese mainland 300 00:22:10,100 --> 00:22:12,100 is just across the water, 301 00:22:12,100 --> 00:22:12,340 the People's Liberation Army would is just across the water, 302 00:22:12,340 --> 00:22:16,660 the People's Liberation Army would find it difficult to invade Taiwan. 303 00:22:17,620 --> 00:22:22,300 The island has a spine of high and rugged mountains. 304 00:22:24,260 --> 00:22:26,820 It's only when you get up here in the mountains 305 00:22:26,820 --> 00:22:30,580 that you realise what an incredible, natural, geographical 306 00:22:30,580 --> 00:22:30,820 that you realise what defensive position Taiwan has 307 00:22:30,820 --> 00:22:33,420 defensive position Taiwan has 308 00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:36,780 even though it's one of the most densely populated countries 309 00:22:36,780 --> 00:22:38,300 in the world. 310 00:22:52,940 --> 00:22:57,100 Taiwan is building up a bristling array of formidable weapons, 311 00:22:57,100 --> 00:23:00,980 all part of what they call their 'Porcupine Strategy'. 312 00:23:14,740 --> 00:23:17,860 Taiwan may have these advanced weapons, 313 00:23:17,860 --> 00:23:21,580 but Chinese forces are 12 times bigger. 314 00:23:34,660 --> 00:23:36,540 (BOOMING) 315 00:23:37,500 --> 00:23:40,140 Taiwan has been slow to arm itself. 316 00:23:40,140 --> 00:23:44,220 It still depends heavily on America for advanced weapons. 317 00:23:45,180 --> 00:23:48,340 GARY ROUGHEAD: The idea is to begin to take advantage 318 00:23:48,340 --> 00:23:51,860 of the technology that's available today, 319 00:23:51,860 --> 00:23:57,140 to be able to put in place small numbers of weapon systems 320 00:23:57,140 --> 00:23:57,380 to be able to put in place that, for want of a better term, 321 00:23:57,380 --> 00:24:00,140 that, for want of a better term, 322 00:24:00,140 --> 00:24:04,020 could shred an invading force that wanted to come across the beaches. 323 00:24:11,620 --> 00:24:14,220 After her party's poor election showing, 324 00:24:14,220 --> 00:24:14,460 After her party's President Tsai is under pressure. 325 00:24:14,460 --> 00:24:17,140 President Tsai is under pressure. 326 00:24:17,140 --> 00:24:22,060 President Xi is about to show Taiwan he means business. 327 00:24:35,020 --> 00:24:37,700 PROTESTERS: (CHANT) Free Hong Kong! Free Hong Kong! 328 00:24:37,700 --> 00:24:40,700 Taiwan watched as China took back control 329 00:24:40,700 --> 00:24:40,940 Taiwan watched of another wayward territory - 330 00:24:40,940 --> 00:24:43,380 of another wayward territory - 331 00:24:43,380 --> 00:24:45,780 Hong Kong. 332 00:24:45,780 --> 00:24:50,060 A pro-democracy movement was ruthlessly put down there. 333 00:24:51,020 --> 00:24:57,620 (MILITARY BAND PLAYS STRIDENT MUSIC) 334 00:24:57,620 --> 00:24:59,700 The events in Hong Kong 335 00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:03,740 revived President Tsai's fortunes just in time. 336 00:25:03,740 --> 00:25:07,500 She was reaching the end of her four-year term in office 337 00:25:07,500 --> 00:25:10,460 and was now campaigning for re-election. 338 00:25:21,380 --> 00:25:22,860 China has been selling 339 00:25:22,860 --> 00:25:25,780 the so-called 'one country, two systems' model to Taiwan, 340 00:25:25,780 --> 00:25:28,940 and they try to show that it's workable, 341 00:25:28,940 --> 00:25:30,860 how it's working in Hong Kong, 342 00:25:30,860 --> 00:25:33,420 so, it should be applicable to Taiwan. 343 00:25:33,420 --> 00:25:36,380 But, you know, it turned out not to be the case. 344 00:25:36,380 --> 00:25:40,420 So, it becomes a very difficult product 345 00:25:40,420 --> 00:25:43,180 for Beijing to sell to the people in Taiwan. 346 00:25:48,620 --> 00:25:52,700 The President already had the support of the younger generation, 347 00:25:52,700 --> 00:25:57,380 but Hong Kong changed views across Taiwanese society. 348 00:25:57,380 --> 00:25:57,620 but Hong Kong changed views (BALLAD PLAYS) 349 00:25:57,620 --> 00:25:59,260 (BALLAD PLAYS) 350 00:25:59,260 --> 00:26:00,740 In the parks here 351 00:26:00,740 --> 00:26:00,980 older residents gather In the parks here 352 00:26:00,980 --> 00:26:04,780 older residents gather for their daily dancing sessions. 353 00:26:04,780 --> 00:26:08,900 Many of them, or their parents, came from mainland China. 354 00:26:08,900 --> 00:26:09,140 Many of them, or their parents, (BALLAD PLAYS) 355 00:26:09,140 --> 00:26:10,460 (BALLAD PLAYS) 356 00:26:23,060 --> 00:26:28,180 This generation didn't use to be strongly in favour of independence. 357 00:26:28,180 --> 00:26:29,660 It's different now. 358 00:26:51,580 --> 00:26:54,620 China's heavy-handed approach to Taiwan, 359 00:26:54,620 --> 00:26:54,900 as we've seen in places like Hong Kong as well, China's heavy-handed approach to Taiwan, 360 00:26:54,900 --> 00:26:57,220 as we've seen in places like Hong Kong as well, 361 00:26:57,220 --> 00:26:58,540 has actually backfired. 362 00:26:58,540 --> 00:26:58,780 So, rather than win the hearts has actually backfired. 363 00:26:58,780 --> 00:27:01,140 So, rather than win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese, 364 00:27:01,140 --> 00:27:01,380 So, rather than win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese, it ends up alienating them 365 00:27:01,380 --> 00:27:03,260 it ends up alienating them 366 00:27:03,260 --> 00:27:06,340 and further compounding a desire amongst the Taiwanese 367 00:27:06,340 --> 00:27:08,500 to defend their way of life and their democracy. 368 00:27:08,500 --> 00:27:08,740 to defend their way of life (CHEERING) 369 00:27:08,740 --> 00:27:14,060 (CHEERING) 370 00:27:14,060 --> 00:27:16,260 After the events in Hong Kong, 371 00:27:16,260 --> 00:27:23,060 in 2020 Tsai Ing-Wen wins her second presidential term with a landslide. 372 00:27:38,060 --> 00:27:40,940 After Tsai Ing-wen is re-elected 373 00:27:40,940 --> 00:27:45,260 China steps up it's military activity in the Taiwan Strait. 374 00:27:46,220 --> 00:27:49,340 Xi Jinping repeats his warning. 375 00:27:58,860 --> 00:28:02,260 Tsai responds on Taiwan's National Day. 376 00:28:24,540 --> 00:28:27,940 America sends warships through the strait. 377 00:28:27,940 --> 00:28:28,180 America sends warships 'Strategic ambiguity' 378 00:28:28,180 --> 00:28:29,540 'Strategic ambiguity' 379 00:28:29,540 --> 00:28:31,500 now becomes a firm pledge 380 00:28:31,500 --> 00:28:36,020 to come to Taiwan's defence if China attacks. 381 00:28:36,020 --> 00:28:38,740 (ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS) 382 00:28:38,740 --> 00:28:38,980 ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: The stalemate (ARCHIVE THEME MUSIC PLAYS) 383 00:28:38,980 --> 00:28:41,740 ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: The stalemate in the Taiwan Strait continues. 384 00:28:41,740 --> 00:28:41,980 ARCHIVE VOICEOVER: The stalemate It's happened before in the 1950s. 385 00:28:41,980 --> 00:28:44,700 It's happened before in the 1950s. 386 00:28:44,700 --> 00:28:46,500 Batteries on red China's mainland 387 00:28:46,500 --> 00:28:48,980 have almost sealed off the island from help. 388 00:28:48,980 --> 00:28:50,020 (EXPLOSION) 389 00:28:50,020 --> 00:28:51,620 When Chinese artillery 390 00:28:51,620 --> 00:28:55,220 bombarded Taiwanese islands closest to the mainland 391 00:28:55,220 --> 00:28:55,460 bombarded Taiwanese islands America stepped in. 392 00:28:55,460 --> 00:28:57,500 America stepped in. 393 00:28:59,660 --> 00:29:02,140 Kinmen was one of those islands, 394 00:29:02,140 --> 00:29:02,380 only a few miles from China Kinmen was one of those islands, 395 00:29:02,380 --> 00:29:06,220 only a few miles from China in the Taiwan Strait. 396 00:29:09,300 --> 00:29:11,980 (BIRDS SQUAWK) 397 00:29:12,940 --> 00:29:17,140 You can see the mainland and the skyscrapers of a Chinese city 398 00:29:17,140 --> 00:29:19,380 from Kinmen's beaches. 399 00:29:21,580 --> 00:29:26,260 This place has borne the brunt of war with its neighbour for decades. 400 00:29:26,260 --> 00:29:30,220 These rusting relics hold memories of an earlier conflict 401 00:29:30,220 --> 00:29:33,220 that people here hoped they'd never see again. 402 00:29:34,180 --> 00:29:37,220 Kinmen's still on the front line. 403 00:29:37,220 --> 00:29:40,660 Councillor Tung Sen-Pao knows everyone here. 404 00:29:41,620 --> 00:29:46,020 What do people here feel about China? It's so close, just over the water. 405 00:29:57,300 --> 00:30:02,340 Local people are ambivalent about their relationship with China today. 406 00:30:21,620 --> 00:30:24,700 Wu Tseng-Dong grew up under fire. 407 00:30:50,620 --> 00:30:52,460 Now he makes his living 408 00:30:52,460 --> 00:30:54,860 turning old shells into knives 409 00:30:54,860 --> 00:30:58,780 for sale to Chinese tourists from the mainland. 410 00:31:10,420 --> 00:31:11,900 In the local market 411 00:31:11,900 --> 00:31:12,140 memories of the last war with China In the local market 412 00:31:12,140 --> 00:31:15,860 memories of the last war with China are still strong. 413 00:31:17,020 --> 00:31:21,980 But there are also close family and economic ties with the mainland... 414 00:31:22,940 --> 00:31:26,020 ..and more support here for reunification. 415 00:31:55,940 --> 00:32:02,580 (CADENCE CALLS) 416 00:32:02,580 --> 00:32:06,380 Chinese tourists are trickling back to wartime sites here 417 00:32:06,380 --> 00:32:06,620 Chinese tourists are trickling back after the pandemic. 418 00:32:06,620 --> 00:32:07,900 after the pandemic. 419 00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:11,820 They're a vital economic lifeline for the island, 420 00:32:11,820 --> 00:32:14,860 which now capitalises on its troubled history. 421 00:32:14,860 --> 00:32:15,100 which now capitalises (CALLS IN TAIWANESE MANDARIN) 422 00:32:15,100 --> 00:32:17,980 (CALLS IN TAIWANESE MANDARIN) 423 00:32:17,980 --> 00:32:19,020 (GUN FIRES) 424 00:32:20,020 --> 00:32:24,660 In Kinmen they still feel like a pawn between the superpowers. 425 00:32:45,900 --> 00:32:52,020 China doesn't treat any of the strait as Taiwan's territorial water. 426 00:32:53,300 --> 00:32:56,420 Out there in the sea is the median line - 427 00:32:56,420 --> 00:33:00,380 the invisible boundary between Taiwan and China. 428 00:33:00,380 --> 00:33:02,620 It was defined by America 429 00:33:02,620 --> 00:33:05,700 but has never been recognised by China. 430 00:33:06,900 --> 00:33:09,820 There are massive Chinese dredgers here 431 00:33:09,820 --> 00:33:14,020 digging up sand to build infrastructure on the mainland. 432 00:33:14,020 --> 00:33:18,700 They also create new islands and military outposts in the Pacific. 433 00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:24,220 These dredgers are stretching almost as far as I can see. 434 00:33:24,220 --> 00:33:27,780 I've counted more than a dozen and there are more up ahead. 435 00:33:28,940 --> 00:33:31,660 (SIREN WAILS) 436 00:33:31,660 --> 00:33:35,420 (SPEAKS MANDARIN) 437 00:33:35,420 --> 00:33:37,420 In just three years 438 00:33:37,420 --> 00:33:40,700 the number of dredgers expelled by the Taiwanese coastguard 439 00:33:40,700 --> 00:33:40,940 the number of dredgers expelled has gone up from 600 to nearly 4,000. 440 00:33:40,940 --> 00:33:44,260 has gone up from 600 to nearly 4,000. 441 00:33:51,060 --> 00:33:54,420 Dredgers have damaged internet cables on the seabed 442 00:33:54,420 --> 00:33:58,180 connecting Taiwan with the rest of the world. 443 00:33:58,180 --> 00:33:58,420 connecting Taiwan (SPEAKS MANDARIN) 444 00:33:58,420 --> 00:34:04,220 (SPEAKS MANDARIN) 445 00:34:04,220 --> 00:34:07,700 China's accused of using vessels like this 446 00:34:07,700 --> 00:34:10,340 in a campaign of grey-zone warfare. 447 00:34:10,340 --> 00:34:12,060 GARY ROUGHEAD: What Beijing is doing 448 00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:12,300 is creating an environment GARY ROUGHEAD: What Beijing is doing 449 00:34:12,300 --> 00:34:13,980 is creating an environment 450 00:34:13,980 --> 00:34:17,980 where they can be much more aware 451 00:34:17,980 --> 00:34:18,220 where they can be much more aware of everything that is moving above, on and under the water, 452 00:34:18,220 --> 00:34:22,540 of everything that is moving above, on and under the water, 453 00:34:22,540 --> 00:34:25,020 which would give them tremendous advantage 454 00:34:25,020 --> 00:34:27,780 should there be a conflict in the strait. 455 00:34:34,340 --> 00:34:37,060 An invasion, a naval blockade, 456 00:34:37,060 --> 00:34:40,380 destruction of global communication links. 457 00:34:40,380 --> 00:34:40,620 destruction A lot's at stake here. 458 00:34:40,620 --> 00:34:42,900 A lot's at stake here. 459 00:34:42,900 --> 00:34:43,140 If there were to be war A lot's at stake here. 460 00:34:43,140 --> 00:34:46,660 If there were to be war in the Taiwan Strait, 461 00:34:46,660 --> 00:34:50,900 the impact, if only in economic terms, 462 00:34:50,900 --> 00:34:54,220 would be in the trillions of dollars for the first year, 463 00:34:54,220 --> 00:34:54,460 would be in the trillions of dollars not to mention the fact 464 00:34:54,460 --> 00:34:55,940 not to mention the fact 465 00:34:55,940 --> 00:34:58,140 that the Chinese would then access 466 00:34:58,140 --> 00:34:58,380 the world's key producer that the Chinese would then access 467 00:34:58,380 --> 00:35:03,500 the world's key producer of the most advanced semiconductors 468 00:35:03,500 --> 00:35:07,100 that now fuel the entire global economy. 469 00:35:13,740 --> 00:35:16,900 90% of advanced semiconductors - 470 00:35:16,900 --> 00:35:20,100 the chips we all use in our digital devices - 471 00:35:20,100 --> 00:35:21,940 are made in Taiwan. 472 00:35:22,900 --> 00:35:26,700 America's racing to build chip factories in Arizona 473 00:35:26,700 --> 00:35:26,940 America's racing to build with Taiwanese partners, 474 00:35:26,940 --> 00:35:28,820 with Taiwanese partners, 475 00:35:28,820 --> 00:35:31,220 but it will take years. 476 00:35:49,180 --> 00:35:54,780 China's top priority is to develop its own high-end chip industry. 477 00:35:54,780 --> 00:35:58,540 There have been accusations of dirty tricks here too. 478 00:35:58,540 --> 00:36:01,260 J MICHAEL COLE: So, there was human espionage. 479 00:36:01,260 --> 00:36:01,500 J MICHAEL COLE: They have recruited individuals, 480 00:36:01,500 --> 00:36:03,140 They have recruited individuals, 481 00:36:03,140 --> 00:36:04,780 offered them large sums of money 482 00:36:04,780 --> 00:36:08,540 to be employed in semiconductor firms back in China 483 00:36:08,540 --> 00:36:12,260 but also with them in their luggage would carry hard drives 484 00:36:12,260 --> 00:36:15,700 that contain plans for semiconductors 485 00:36:15,700 --> 00:36:19,060 and try to replicate that back in China. 486 00:36:19,060 --> 00:36:23,580 But China still relies heavily on Taiwan's advanced technology. 487 00:36:23,580 --> 00:36:28,540 This science park near Taipei full of semiconductor companies 488 00:36:28,540 --> 00:36:28,780 This science park near Taipei is Taiwan's jewel in the crown. 489 00:36:28,780 --> 00:36:30,820 is Taiwan's jewel in the crown. 490 00:36:30,820 --> 00:36:33,220 Some see it as a silicon shield 491 00:36:33,220 --> 00:36:37,740 because it's just too valuable to damage or destroy. 492 00:37:18,740 --> 00:37:25,060 China ramps up its military activity in the Taiwan Strait in 2022. 493 00:37:25,900 --> 00:37:29,260 In February there's a wake-up call. 494 00:37:29,260 --> 00:37:32,340 LO CHIH-CHENG: The Russian invasion of Ukraine 495 00:37:32,340 --> 00:37:32,580 alarmed a lot of people in Taiwan. LO CHIH-CHENG: The Russian invasion of Ukraine 496 00:37:32,580 --> 00:37:35,140 alarmed a lot of people in Taiwan. 497 00:37:35,140 --> 00:37:37,260 In other words, 498 00:37:37,260 --> 00:37:37,460 In other words, war is not unthinkable. 499 00:37:37,460 --> 00:37:39,700 war is not unthinkable. 500 00:37:39,700 --> 00:37:41,580 So, people begin to believe 501 00:37:41,580 --> 00:37:46,100 that we should prepare ourselves for the worst-case scenario. 502 00:37:46,100 --> 00:37:48,340 That's one lesson we learnt from the Ukrainian war. 503 00:37:48,340 --> 00:37:49,860 (GUNFIRE) 504 00:37:49,860 --> 00:37:52,420 Taiwan's young people are realising 505 00:37:52,420 --> 00:37:55,580 they too may have to defend their homeland. 506 00:37:55,580 --> 00:37:55,820 they too (GUNFIRE) 507 00:37:55,820 --> 00:37:58,060 (GUNFIRE) 508 00:37:58,060 --> 00:38:02,020 This is Camp 66 - a civilian defence training unit. 509 00:38:04,060 --> 00:38:05,300 (GUNSHOT) 510 00:38:05,300 --> 00:38:09,500 They're drawing lessons here from what happened in Ukraine - 511 00:38:09,500 --> 00:38:14,620 a citizen force galvanised into action against an invader 512 00:38:14,620 --> 00:38:17,460 and holding fast against all expectations. 513 00:38:37,100 --> 00:38:41,420 The number of people paying to come to private camps like this 514 00:38:41,420 --> 00:38:41,660 The number of people paying quadrupled in the past year. 515 00:38:41,660 --> 00:38:43,900 quadrupled in the past year. 516 00:38:43,900 --> 00:38:50,100 Compulsory military service has been increased from four to twelve months. 517 00:38:50,100 --> 00:38:51,860 I hope that I don't need these skills. 518 00:38:51,860 --> 00:38:54,380 I hope I don't ever need to do this at all. 519 00:38:54,380 --> 00:38:56,660 But, when it comes to it, I need to be prepared. 520 00:38:56,660 --> 00:38:56,900 But, when it comes to it, You're determined to fight? 521 00:38:56,900 --> 00:38:58,460 You're determined to fight? 522 00:38:58,460 --> 00:39:03,220 I think so. This is my home. This is my family. Yeah, I should. 523 00:39:07,740 --> 00:39:13,500 Ukraine taught Taiwan it was vital to stay connected in the event of war. 524 00:39:13,500 --> 00:39:16,220 They're developing their own satellite network 525 00:39:16,220 --> 00:39:16,460 They're developing to keep communications going. 526 00:39:16,460 --> 00:39:19,260 to keep communications going. 527 00:39:23,460 --> 00:39:26,700 As tension increased in the strait last summer, 528 00:39:26,700 --> 00:39:32,700 a top US politician, Nancy Pelosi, made a controversial visit to Taiwan. 529 00:39:32,700 --> 00:39:32,940 a top US politician, Nancy Pelosi, (CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK) 530 00:39:32,940 --> 00:39:34,660 (CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK) 531 00:39:35,620 --> 00:39:37,300 During her visit 532 00:39:37,300 --> 00:39:39,900 there another wave of cyber attacks. 533 00:39:39,900 --> 00:39:44,060 Electronic boards at train stations and thousands of convenience stores 534 00:39:44,060 --> 00:39:44,300 Electronic boards at train stations were hijacked. 535 00:39:44,300 --> 00:39:45,540 were hijacked. 536 00:39:45,540 --> 00:39:48,420 She was branded a witch, a warmonger. 537 00:39:48,420 --> 00:39:48,660 Nancy Pelosi's illegitimate visit to Taiwan She was branded a witch, a warmonger. 538 00:39:48,660 --> 00:39:52,580 Nancy Pelosi's illegitimate visit to Taiwan 539 00:39:52,580 --> 00:39:55,220 was only serving one purpose 540 00:39:55,220 --> 00:39:55,420 was only serving one purpose and one purpose only - 541 00:39:55,420 --> 00:39:56,700 and one purpose only - 542 00:39:56,700 --> 00:39:59,860 she was encouraging Taiwan independence. 543 00:39:59,860 --> 00:40:00,100 she was encouraging (CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK) 544 00:40:00,100 --> 00:40:01,740 (CAMERA SHUTTERS CLICK) 545 00:40:01,740 --> 00:40:03,860 J MICHAEL COLE: The visit coincided 546 00:40:03,860 --> 00:40:04,100 with emerging signs of instability in China, J MICHAEL COLE: The visit coincided 547 00:40:04,100 --> 00:40:05,940 with emerging signs of instability in China, 548 00:40:05,940 --> 00:40:06,180 with emerging signs a slowing economy, and Xi Jinping, 549 00:40:06,180 --> 00:40:07,900 a slowing economy, and Xi Jinping, 550 00:40:07,900 --> 00:40:08,140 a slowing economy, and Xi Jinping, who was seeking a third term later in the year as well. 551 00:40:08,140 --> 00:40:11,900 who was seeking a third term later in the year as well. 552 00:40:11,900 --> 00:40:15,100 So, anything that appeared as a slap in the face, 553 00:40:15,100 --> 00:40:18,340 that undermined his hard-line position on Taiwan 554 00:40:18,340 --> 00:40:21,060 was also something that was deemed provocative. 555 00:40:22,020 --> 00:40:27,540 (BOOMING) 556 00:40:27,540 --> 00:40:29,980 Hours after Nancy Pelosi left 557 00:40:29,980 --> 00:40:36,580 China launched live-fire exercises unprecedented in recent history. 558 00:40:36,580 --> 00:40:40,860 Eleven missiles landed in Taiwan's territorial waters 559 00:40:40,860 --> 00:40:42,580 and flew over the island 560 00:40:42,580 --> 00:40:42,780 eastwards towards Japan. and flew over the island 561 00:40:42,780 --> 00:40:45,300 eastwards towards Japan. 562 00:40:45,300 --> 00:40:45,500 eastwards towards Japan. (CALLS IN MANDARIN) 563 00:40:45,500 --> 00:40:49,780 (CALLS IN MANDARIN) 564 00:40:51,180 --> 00:40:52,660 Was it wise for her to come? 565 00:40:52,660 --> 00:40:56,060 Wasn't it just antagonising China unnecessarily? 566 00:40:56,060 --> 00:41:00,860 I think China just used that as a pretext 567 00:41:00,860 --> 00:41:05,620 to justify its military excesses in the region. 568 00:41:05,620 --> 00:41:11,020 China will do it with or without Nancy Pelosi's visit. 569 00:41:11,020 --> 00:41:13,380 It just used them as an excuse. 570 00:41:14,780 --> 00:41:19,300 Chinese jets crossed the invisible boundary in the Taiwan Strait... 571 00:41:19,300 --> 00:41:19,540 Chinese jets crossed the invisible (CALLS IN MANDARIN) 572 00:41:19,540 --> 00:41:21,140 (CALLS IN MANDARIN) 573 00:41:21,140 --> 00:41:23,740 ..to show it would never deter them. 574 00:41:23,740 --> 00:41:23,980 VICTOR GAO: China has demonstrated ..to show it would never deter them. 575 00:41:23,980 --> 00:41:27,820 VICTOR GAO: China has demonstrated to the United States 576 00:41:27,820 --> 00:41:31,740 that China has the military capabilities 577 00:41:31,740 --> 00:41:31,980 that China to completely encircle Taiwan, 578 00:41:31,980 --> 00:41:34,780 to completely encircle Taiwan, 579 00:41:34,780 --> 00:41:39,500 to cutting off its connection by sea or by air if necessary 580 00:41:39,500 --> 00:41:39,740 to cutting off its connection with the rest of the world, 581 00:41:39,740 --> 00:41:41,380 with the rest of the world, 582 00:41:41,380 --> 00:41:41,620 and China has the political will with the rest of the world, 583 00:41:41,620 --> 00:41:45,980 and China has the political will as well as military capabilities 584 00:41:45,980 --> 00:41:51,180 to achieve national reunification by force if it is necessary. 585 00:41:59,460 --> 00:42:00,900 Life goes on here, 586 00:42:00,900 --> 00:42:04,380 though China keeps ratcheting up the threat. 587 00:42:04,380 --> 00:42:07,980 (TINKLING) 588 00:42:09,620 --> 00:42:13,060 President Tsai is in the last year of her final term, 589 00:42:13,060 --> 00:42:13,300 President Tsai is in the last year and many people are fearful. 590 00:42:13,300 --> 00:42:15,820 and many people are fearful. 591 00:42:26,380 --> 00:42:28,940 (PLAYS INTRO) 592 00:42:28,940 --> 00:42:33,660 Fire EX still play the song they wrote a nearly a decade ago. 593 00:42:33,660 --> 00:42:33,900 Fire EX still play the song (BAND PLAYS ROCK MUSIC) 594 00:42:33,900 --> 00:42:36,700 (BAND PLAYS ROCK MUSIC) 595 00:42:38,860 --> 00:42:41,420 They believe their fight for independence 596 00:42:41,420 --> 00:42:44,020 is even more vital today. 597 00:42:44,020 --> 00:42:47,500 (SINGS IN TAIWANESE MANDARIN) 598 00:42:57,220 --> 00:43:01,500 Sam, if there was military action by China, even an invasion, 599 00:43:01,500 --> 00:43:01,740 Sam, if there was military action would you fight for Taiwan? 600 00:43:01,740 --> 00:43:03,780 would you fight for Taiwan? 601 00:43:03,780 --> 00:43:05,620 Sure. 602 00:43:14,620 --> 00:43:17,860 (GENTLE MUSIC PLAYS OVER LOUDSPEAKER) 603 00:43:17,860 --> 00:43:18,100 (GENTLE MUSIC On Kinmen Island 604 00:43:18,100 --> 00:43:19,500 On Kinmen Island 605 00:43:19,500 --> 00:43:22,780 propaganda songs played during the war in the '50s 606 00:43:22,780 --> 00:43:25,740 still drift across the strait at night... 607 00:43:25,740 --> 00:43:30,380 (GENTLE MUSIC PLAYS OVER LOUDSPEAKER) 608 00:43:30,380 --> 00:43:36,220 ..a ghostly echo of the unfinished business between China and Taiwan. 609 00:43:36,220 --> 00:43:40,420 (GENTLE MUSIC PLAYS OVER LOUDSPEAKER) 610 00:43:40,420 --> 00:43:44,980 You have two nuclear powers - US and China. 611 00:43:44,980 --> 00:43:48,620 So, it's not just a war between Taiwan and China. 612 00:43:48,620 --> 00:43:54,380 There could be a disaster for the region and even for the whole world. 613 00:43:54,380 --> 00:43:57,540 How likely is that, do you think, from where we sit now? 614 00:43:57,540 --> 00:44:02,660 Well, again, the ball is not in our court. 615 00:44:02,660 --> 00:44:02,900 Well, again, The ball is in Beijing's court. 616 00:44:02,900 --> 00:44:05,700 The ball is in Beijing's court. 617 00:44:05,700 --> 00:44:05,940 How can any power The ball is in Beijing's court. 618 00:44:05,940 --> 00:44:08,980 How can any power in the world of today 619 00:44:08,980 --> 00:44:12,820 really believe they have the wherewithal 620 00:44:12,820 --> 00:44:13,060 really believe to take Taiwan away from China? 621 00:44:13,060 --> 00:44:15,460 to take Taiwan away from China? 622 00:44:15,460 --> 00:44:17,500 This is a mission impossible. 623 00:44:17,500 --> 00:44:21,340 This is a mission, if it is done or executed, 624 00:44:21,340 --> 00:44:24,580 may lead directly to Armageddon. 625 00:44:25,540 --> 00:44:29,860 (BIRDS TWITTER) 626 00:44:32,060 --> 00:44:33,740 The last seven years 627 00:44:33,740 --> 00:44:33,980 have turned most Taiwanese against The last seven years 628 00:44:33,980 --> 00:44:38,700 have turned most Taiwanese against reunification with the mainland. 629 00:44:38,700 --> 00:44:45,300 China is running out of options to solve its Taiwan problem peacefully. 630 00:44:46,140 --> 00:44:48,140 Captions by Red Bee Media 631 00:44:48,140 --> 00:44:50,340 Copyright Australian Broadcasting Corporation