♪ ♪
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]
>> John: WELCOME, WELCOME,
WELCOME TO "LAST WEEK TONIGHT"!
I'M JOHN OLIVER.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING
US.
WE ARE BACK!
AND IT HAS BEEN A BUSY WEEK.
ERIC SWALWELL'S POLITICAL CAREER
JUSTIFIABLY IMPLODED.
A JURY FOUND THAT LIVENATION
RUNS A MONOPOLY, WHICH IS NO
SURPRISE TO ANYONE WHO'S EVER
HAD TO DEAL WITH THEM.
AND HUNGARY'S VIKTOR ORBAN WAS
KICKED OUT OF OFFICE, WITH ONE
PARTICULAR MOMENT IN THE
AFTERMATH CATCHING EVERYONE'S
ATTENTION.
>> THE SHACKLES ARE OFF, AND
THEY ARE DANCING TO A DIFFERENT
TUNE.
THIS VIRAL VIDEO OF HUNGARY'S
EXPECTED NEW HEALTH MINISTER
ENCAPSULATING THE PARTY MOOD.
>> John: I LOVE IT.
CELEBRATING AN AUTOCRAT'S
DOWNFALL BY DANCING LIKE YOUR
DRUNKEST UNCLE DURING THE LAST
20 MINUTES OF A WEDDING IS
INCREDIBLE.
AND WHILE I'M HAPPY FOR HUNGARY,
I'M ALSO A BIT JEALOUS.
BECAUSE THEY'RE GETTING THIS GUY
AS THEIR HEALTH MINISTER, WHILE
WE'RE STUCK WITH THIS BEEFY
CREEP WHO JUST THIS WEEK WE
LEARNED ONCE CUT THE PENIS OFF
A ROAD-KILLED RACCOON.
AS A PURELY VIBES-BASED MATCHUP,
WE HAVE LOST HEAVILY.
MEANWHILE, OUR TENTATIVE
CEASEFIRE WITH IRAN SEEMS TO BE
HOLDING SO FAR, THOUGH AS OF
TAPING, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
REMAINS IN CHAOS, WITH "DUELING
BLOCKADES" FROM THE U.S. AND
IRAN CAUSING WIDESPREAD
CONFUSION.
EVEN THE POPE'S NOW SEEMED TO
CRITICIZE THE WAR, SAYING QUOTE,
WHOEVER IS A DISCIPLE OF PEACE
WILL NOT STAND ON THE SIDE.
IT'S A SERIES OF STATEMENTS THAT
MADE TRUMP LOSE HIS SHIT.
WHICH LED TO HIM POSTING
THIS SCREED, WHICH BEGAN WITH,
"POPE LEO IS WEAK ON CRIME."
WHICH IN TERMS OF INSULTS, JUST
DOESN'T WORK.
IT'S LIKE SAYING THIS POSSUM IS
WEAK ON BALKAN GEOGRAPHY.
OKAY, BUT WHO GIVES A SHIT?
IT'S NOT A POSSUM'S JOB TO
CORRECTLY PLACE BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA ON A MAP.
HER JOB'S TO EAT GARBAGE, HANG
UPSIDE DOWN AND BY THIS
EVIDENCE, FUCK.
BUT TRUMP WASN'T DONE.
BECAUSE HE THEN POSTED THIS
IMAGE, WHICH UNDERSTANDABLY
GENERATED FIERCE BACKLASH.
AND HIS EXCUSE WAS PRETTY WEAK.
>> TONIGHT, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS
DEFENDING HIS SOCIAL MEDIA POST
OF THIS A.I. GENERATED IMAGE
THAT DEPICTS HIM AS
JESUS CHRIST.
>> I DID POST IT AND I THOUGHT
IT WAS ME AS A DOCTOR, AND HAD
TO DO WITH RED CROSS.
THERE'S A RED CROSS WORKER THERE
WHICH WE SUPPORT.
>> John: OH, THAT MAKES SENSE --
A DOCTOR.
YOU KNOW HOW WHEN YOU GO TO THE
DOCTOR, AND YOU GET CHECKED IN
BY A NURSE AND A FEW BALD
EAGLES, AND THEN THE DOCTOR
COMES IN AND HE'S WEARING AN
ANCIENT TUNIC, AND SAYS, "WE'RE
GOING TO GET YOU STARTED ON
ANTIBIOTICS AND ON ORBS OF LIGHT
BORNE FROM MY VERY SKIN.
TAKE THEM WITH FOOD."
YOU KNOW, THE DOCTOR.
MEANWHILE, CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE
OF ALL THIS WAS J.D. VANCE --
WHO ACTUALLY HAS A NEW BOOK
COMING OUT THAT'S LITERALLY
ABOUT HIS DECISION TO CONVERT TO
CATHOLICISM, WITH -- FUN FACT --
A STOCK PHOTO OF A METHODIST
CHURCH ON THE COVER.
NOW, WHEN PRESSED ON THE POPE'S
REMARKS, VANCE TOOK A BOLD
SWING.
>> WHEN THE WHEN THE POPE SAYS
THAT GOD IS NEVER ON THE SIDE OF
THOSE WHO WIELD THE SWORD, THERE
IS A THOUSAND-YEAR MORE THAN A
THOUSAND-YEAR TRADITION OF JUST
WAR THEORY.
OKAY?
NOW, WE CAN OF COURSE HAVE
DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT WHETHER THIS
OR THAT CONFLICT IS JUST, BUT I
THINK THAT IT'S IMPORTANT IN THE
SAME WAY THAT IT'S IMPORTANT FOR
THE VICE PRESIDENT OF
UNITED STATES TO BE CAREFUL WHEN
I TALK ABOUT MATTERS OF PUBLIC
POLICY.
I THINK IT'S VERY VERY IMPORTANT
FOR THE POPE TO BE CAREFUL WHEN
HE TALKS ABOUT MATTERS OF
THEOLOGY.
>> John: YEAH, THAT'S J.D. VANCE
DOUCHESPLAINING THEOLOGY TO THE
POPE.
WHICH IS OBJECTIVELY CRAZY.
IT'D BE LIKE ME EXPLAINING TO
J.D. VANCE WHERE THE CLIT IS ON
A TOGO SECTIONAL.
WHY WOULD I EVEN TRY TO DO THAT?
HE'S SPENT HIS LIFE DEVOTED TO
THIS VERY SUBJECT.
I'M OUT OF MY LANE THERE!
ALSO, "BE CAREFUL?"
THE POPE'S GOT A LIFETIME GIG.
HE DOESN'T NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS
ABOUT WHAT HE SAYS.
HE COULD START TWEETING "WHERE'S
THE ALBUM" AT RIHANNA EVERY DAY
FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE AND
THAT STILL WOULDN'T CHANGE THE
FACT HE'S CONSIDERED THE VICAR
OF CHRIST.
LITERALLY THE ONLY THING HE
SHOULD PROBABLY "BE CAREFUL
ABOUT" IS NOT MEETING WITH
J.D. VANCE BECAUSE,
HISTORICALLY, THAT'S BEEN FATAL
FOR POPES.
BUT INCREDIBLY THE PRESIDENT
STILL WASN'T DONE.
HE REPOSTED AN AI IMAGE OF JESUS
HUGGING HIM, WHICH HAD THE
CAPTION "I WAS NEVER A VERY
RELIGIOUS MAN, BUT DOESN'T IT
SEEM, WITH ALL THESE SATANIC,
DEMONIC, CHILD SACRIFICING
MONSTERS BEING EXPOSED, THAT GOD
MIGHT BE PLAYING HIS TRUMP
CARD!"
WHICH, FOR SOMEONE WHO WAS
REPEATEDLY PHOTOGRAPHED WITH
SOCIETY'S BUZZIEST
CHILD-SACRIFICING MONSTER, IS A
BOLD THING TO REPOST.
AND ON THURSDAY, HE COULDN'T
RESIST TAKING ONE MORE SWING.
>> BEFORE LEAVING FOR LAS VEGAS
THE PRESIDENT WAS ASKED ABOUT
HIS FEUD WITH THE POPE OVER THE
WAR.
>> I'M NOT FIGHTING WITH HIM.
THE POPE MADE A STATEMENT.
HE SAYS IRAN CAN HAVE A NUCLEAR
WEAPON.
I SAY IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR
WEAPON.
>> POPE LEO HAS NEVER SAID IRAN
SHOULD HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
PRESSED ON WHETHER HE'D BE
WILLING TO MEET WITH THE POPE,
TRUMP SAID...
>> I DON'T THINK IT'S NECESSARY.
>> John: YEAH, I DON'T THINK
THAT'S NECESSARY EITHER.
THIS BATTLE OF WORDS HAS NOT
GONE WELL FOR TRUMP.
PLUS, I DON'T THINK THEY'D SEE
EYE TO EYE ON MUCH, OTHER THAN
MAYBE WHETHER IT'S A GOOD IDEA
TO "COVER YOUR WORKPLACE IN MORE
GOLD SHIT THAN SEEMS PHYSICALLY
POSSIBLE."
THE POINT IS, TRUMP SEEMS TO BE
ON AN EPIC RUN OF PICKING LOSING
FIGHTS, AND WHATEVER AIR OF
INVINCIBILITY HE HAD LAST YEAR
IS FADING FAST.
ALL OF WHICH IS A GOOD REMINDER
THAT ONE DAY, HE'S GOING TO BE
GONE, AND ON THAT DAY, IT'LL BE
TIME TO -- AS I BELIEVE THE
PHRASE NOW GOES -- DANCE LIKE A
HUNGARIAN HEALTH MINISTER.
AND NOW THIS.
>> Announcer: AND NOW,
LOCAL PITTSBURGH NEW CASTERS TO
PRONOUNCE THEIR BALLPARKS NEW
SNACK.
>> THE TEAM UNVEILED A NEW
SLOUGH AT PNC PARK.
>> IT BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF NEW
FLAVOR.
>> THIS IS A PUERTO RICAN
INSPIRED HOTDOG.
THE BORICUA DOG.
BORICUA DOG.
>> A BORICUA DOG PART OF THIS IS
THE PUERTO RICAN INSPIRED HOTDOG
WITH A PITTSBURGH TWIST.
>> John: MOVING ON.
OUR MAIN STORY TONIGHT CONCERNS
PREDICTION MARKETS -- THE
FAST-GROWING PLATFORMS WHERE YOU
CAN BET ON BASICALLY ANYTHING,
AS THIS TIKTOKKER EXPLAINS.
>> I'VE BEEN MAKING A TON OF
MONEY ON THIS APP THAT LETS YOU
BET ON ANYTHING IN THE WORLD.
I BET THAT "GTA 6" WON'T BE
RELEASED ON TIME.
I BET THAT TRUMP WOULD PARDON
YOUNG THUG THIS YEAR.
I'M PREDICTING DELTA AIRLINES
WILL BE THE FIRST AIRLINE TO
SELL ZYN ON THEIR FLIGHTS.
I MADE MONEY OFF TRUMP BEING
ELECTED PRESIDENT, AND 'CAUSE
KAMALA HARRIS DIDN'T GO ON
JOE ROGAN'S PODCAST.
WHEN I WAS IN NEW YORK, I BET IT
WOULD RAIN AND IT DID, SO I WON
MONEY.
I BET THAT JUSTIN BIEBER WOULD
GO TO THE DIDDY TRIAL.
WHEN I WAS IN CHICAGO, I BET ON
THE TEMPERATURE AND WON.
>> John: OKAY, SHOUT OUT TO THAT
GUY, CADEN BOOTH, FOR HAVING
SUCH A DIVERSE SET OF INTERESTS.
THE FIRST HALF OF HIS BETS ARE
STRICTLY GEN-Z BOY: "GRAND THEFT
AUTO", YOUNG THUG, ZYN, ROGAN.
BUT THE BACK HALF'S 100%
SUBURBAN MOM: POTENTIAL RAIN,
THE TEMPERATURE, GRISLY
CELEBRITY TRIALS.
CADE, YOU CONTAIN MULTITUDES.
PREDICTION MARKETS ARE BASICALLY
PLATFORMS WHERE YOU CAN WAGER ON
THE OUTCOME OF FUTURE EVENTS.
THE COMPANIES DECIDE ON THE
QUESTIONS TO LIST, AND RIGHT
NOW, YOU CAN WAGER ON ANYTHING
FROM WILL TRAFFIC IN THE STRAIT
OF HORMUZ RETURN TO NORMAL BY
THE END OF APRIL?
TO WILL THE U.S. CONFIRM THAT
ALIENS EXIST BY THE END OF NEXT
THESE MARKETS HAVE SEEN
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN RECENT
MONTHS, LOGGING BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS IN BETS EVERY WEEK.
YOU MAY'VE HEARD ABOUT THEM ON
THE NEWS, OR SEEN ADS, OR
STUMBLED ACROSS INFLUENCERS LIKE
THIS GUY, WHO'S CONSTANTLY
UPDATING HIS FOLLOWERS ON HOW
VARIOUS WAGERS ABOUT THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION ARE GOING, AND
I'LL WARN YOU -- IT'S A REAL
ROLLERCOASTER.
>> CHINA QUESTION.
PLEASE!
>> HIGH-END NVIDIA CHIPS TO
CHINA.
>> THAT'S CORRECT.
>> BUT THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL"
REPORTED YESTERDAY --
>> OH!
MY HERO!
>> THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE HIS
POSITION ON THIS VERY CLEAR,
BOTH TO THE CHINESE -- THAT'S
NOT SOMETHING WE'RE INTERESTED
IN SELLING TO CHINA AT THIS
TIME --
>> YES!
YES!
>> BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA --
>> YES!
BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!
>> I'M GETTING RICH OFF JEFFREY
EPSTEIN.
OH, THE FILES DROPPED?
YEAH!
IS DONALD TRUMP NAMED IN THE
FILES?
THEY'RE ALL REDACTED?
>> John: YEAH, A LOT MORE
SCREAMING THAN YOU THOUGHT, HUH?
AND IT'S KIND OF AMAZING TO
WITNESS SOMEONE ABSOLUTELY
FURIOUS TRUMP'S NAME WAS
REDACTED FROM THE EPSTEIN FILES
FOR A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
REASON THAN THE REST OF US.
THE POINT IS, A LOT OF PEOPLE
ARE GETTING INTO PREDICTION
MARKETS, THANKS IN PART TO AN
AGGRESSIVE MARKETING PUSH BY THE
TWO BIG PLAYERS IN THIS SPACE,
KALSHI AND POLYMARKET.
KALSHI RECENTLY LOCKED IN A $22
BILLION VALUATION FROM
INVESTORS, DOUBLING ITS
VALUATION FROM JUST A FEW MONTHS
EARLIER, AND POLYMARKET'S
CURRENTLY TRYING TO DO THE SAME.
MEANWHILE, DOZENS OF NEW
ENTRANTS -- LIKE COINBASE,
ROBINHOOD, AND EVEN TRUTH SOCIAL
-- ARE ALSO TRYING TO GET IN ON
THE ACTION.
IT'S SHOCKING THE EXTENT TO
WHICH PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE
PROLIFERATED, AND SOMETIMES A
LITTLE UNNERVING, GIVEN THE
THINGS YOU CAN NOW BET ON.
>> ALI KHAMENEI OUT AS SUPREME
LEADER OF IRAN?
WILL NANCY GUTHRIE'S KIDNAPPER
BE ARRESTED BY THE END OF
FEBRUARY?
THOSE ARE JUST TWO EVENTS
OFFERED ON POPULAR PREDICTION
MARKETS IN THE U.S. OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WHERE
PEOPLE COULD HAVE PUT THEIR
MONEY DOWN, BETTING ON THE
OUTCOME.
>> THERE'S A LOT OF BAD STUFF
GOING ON IN THE WORLD, AND BEING
ABLE TO BET ON JUST, LIKE,
HORRIBLE THINGS LIKE THAT,
LIKE -- WHEN SOMEBODY'S GONNA BE
FOUND?
LIKE, THAT'S NOT -- THAT'S
REALLY DARK TO ME.
>> John: YEAH, HE'S RIGHT.
THE IMPULSE TO TRY AND MAKE
MONEY BETTING ON WAR, OR AN
UNFOLDING TRAGEDY, IS REALLY
DARK.
WHEN SOMEONE DIES YOU'RE
SUPPOSED TO SEND THEIR FAMILY A
CARD THAT SAYS "SORRY FOR YOUR
LOSS" AND NOT ONE THAT SAYS
"THANKS FOR COVERING THE
SPREAD!"
THAT'S JUST ONE OF MANY ISSUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SITES, SO
TONIGHT, LET'S LOOK AT
PREDICTION MARKETS AND TRY TO
ANSWER A FEW QUESTIONS YOU MIGHT
HAVE -- WHERE EXACTLY DID THESE
SITES COME FROM?
WHAT PURPOSE, IF ANY, DO THEY
SERVE?
AND HOW ON EARTH IS ANY OF THIS
LEGAL?
AND LET'S START WITH THE FACT
THAT THE BROAD CONCEPT OF
"PREDICTION MARKETS" ON NEWS
EVENTS IS NOTHING NEW.
IN THE LATE '80s, ECONOMISTS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA CREATED
THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS AS
AN EXPERIMENT, ALLOWING STUDENTS
AND FACULTY TO BUY AND SELL
PREDICTIONS ABOUT UPCOMING
ELECTIONS, AND INTERESTINGLY,
THEY BEGAN TO OUTPERFORM MANY
LEADING POLLS.
THE THEORY WAS, "THE WISDOM OF
CROWDS" -- IN THE FORM OF PEOPLE
PUTTING ACTUAL MONEY BEHIND
THEIR OPINIONS -- CAN PRODUCE
USEFUL FORECASTS.
AND CONTROVERSIAL USES OF THESE
MARKETS AREN'T NEW, EITHER.
AFTER 9/11, THE PENTAGON
ACTUALLY FLIRTED WITH CREATING A
MARKET WHERE EXPERTS COULD WAGER
ON FUTURE EVENTS, HOPING IT
COULD HELP PREDICT EVENTS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST.
BUT IT QUICKLY GOT SHUT DOWN,
ONCE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS FOUND
OUT ABOUT IT, AND VOICED THEIR
DISGUST.
>> THIS BETTING PARLOR ON THE
INTERNET WILL INCLUDE WAGERS,
FOR EXAMPLE, AS THE -- THE
EXAMPLES ON THE INTERNET SITE
PUT UP BY THE DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE, WOULD INCLUDE, WILL
MR. ARAFAT BE ASSASSINATED?
WILL THERE BE MISSILE ATTACKS
FROM NORTH KOREA?
WILL THE KING OF JORDAN BE
OVERTHROWN?
JUST AS AN EXAMPLE.
I THINK THIS IS UNBELIEVABLY
STUPID.
IT'S NOT ONLY -- WELL, THAT IS A
GENTLE THING TO SAY ABOUT A
PROGRAM THAT IS SO DEVOID OF
VALUE.
IT COMBINES THE WORST OF ALL OF
OUR INSTINCTS, IN MY JUDGMENT.
>> John: YEAH, HE WAS
JUSTIFIABLY UPSET AT THE NOTION
OF PEOPLE BETTING ON
GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS THAT WOULD
AFFECT MILLIONS OF LIVES.
AS WE ALL KNOW, THE ONLY GROUPS
SOCIETY'S DECIDED ARE ALLOWED TO
PROFIT FROM INSTABILITY ARE
MILITARY CONTRACTORS, MEMBERS OF
THE TRUMP FAMILY AND THE MORMON
WIVES.
WHITNEY JOINED THE CAST OF
"CHICAGO" ON BROADWAY AND TAYLOR
GETS ANNOUNCED AS BACHELORETTE,
THEN NOTABLY UNANNOUNCED?
I DON'T KNOW HOW THESE WOMEN DO
IT BUT I CAN'T STOP WATCHING.
THE POINT IS, BACK THEN, THE
CONCEPT OF BETTING ON GRIM
OUTCOMES SEEMED BEYOND THE PALE.
BUT EVERYTHING STARTED CHANGING
A FEW YEARS AGO, WHEN KALSHI AND
POLYMARKET LAUNCHED AS STARTUPS,
OPENING THE DOOR TO THE
FREE-FOR-ALL THAT WE HAVE NOW.
INITIALLY, KALSHI SOUGHT
REGULATORY APPROVAL, AND IN
2020, IT WAS APPROVED AS THE
FIRST REGULATED EXCHANGE.
BUT POLYMARKET WENT A DIFFERENT
WAY, LAUNCHING WITHOUT APPROVAL,
AND SEEMING TO BE COMFORTABLE
WORKING OUTSIDE THE RULES.
THE GOVERNMENT ACTUALLY ACCUSED
POLYMARKET OF OPERATING AN
UNLICENSED EXCHANGE, AND AS PART
OF A 2022 SETTLEMENT, IT AGREED
TO PAY $1.4 MILLION AND BLOCK
AMERICANS FROM TRADING ON THE
WRONGDOING.
AND IT'S WORTH WATCHING
POLYMARKET'S CEO, SHAYNE COPLAN,
TRY AND SPIN THAT PENALTY.
>> IT WAS A $1.4 MILLION FINE
AND ALSO YOU --
>> IT WAS A SETTLEMENT.
>> AND YOU COULD NOT HAVE
CUSTOMERS IN THE UNITED STATES.
>> YEAH, WE HAD TO GO AND
GEO-BLOCK TRADING IN THE U.S.
AND MOVE CERTAIN OPERATIONS
OFFSHORE.
AND IT WASN'T, "HEY, YOU'RE
BANNED FROM TRADING IN THE U.S."
IT'S LIKE, "UNTIL YOU'RE
LICENSED."
>> I MEAN, IT WAS BREAKING THE
LAW.
>> I MEAN, PEOPLE SAY BREAKING
THE LAW.
IT'S LIKE, WHICH LAW, YOU KNOW?
SO, IF ANYTHING, IT'S
INCOMPATIBLE.
>> IT'S INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE
LAW.
>> YEAH, WITH THE REGULATORY
MATRIX THAT EXISTED.
>> John: LOOK, INCOMPATIBLE WITH
THE LAW IS CLEARLY RIDICULOUS,
BUT DON'T OVERLOOK THE LINE,
"PEOPLE SAY BREAKING THE LAW AND
IT'S LIKE WHICH LAW, YOU KNOW."
I'M SORRY, WHAT?
I'M PRETTY CONFIDENT THERE IS A
SPECIFIC LAW YOU BROKE, GIVEN --
Y'KNOW -- YOU PAID A
$1.4 MILLION DOLLAR PENALTY.
REGULATORS WEREN'T JUST LIKE,
"SHIT, HE ASKED WHICH LAW?
OH, THE CHINESE EXCLUSION ACT OF
1882?"
FROM THE START, POLYMARKET TOOK
AN EXTREMELY LIBERTARIAN
APPROACH, ALLOWING USERS TO USE
CRYPTO TO BET ANONYMOUSLY ON
THINGS LIKE WAR.
AND WHILE IT'S CURRENTLY ROLLING
OUT A NEW APP TO U.S. USERS THAT
DOES HAVE GOVERNMENT APPROVAL,
IT'S WAY MORE LIMITED AND MOSTLY
OFFERS TRADING ON SPORTS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF ITS
BUSINESS IS STILL DONE ON
POLYMARKET'S INTERNATIONAL
VERSION, WHICH IS BASED OFFSHORE
IN PANAMA, AND ON WHICH AMERICAN
USERS HAVE TO MASK THEIR
LOCATION IF THEY WANT TO TRADE.
AND WHILE DOING THAT MIGHT BE A
HIGH TECHNOLOGICAL BAR TO CLEAR
FOR SOMEONE LIKE ME, USING A
VPN IS SOMETHING ANYONE UNDER 25
LEARNS TO DO BEFORE THEY LEARN
HOW TO WRITE A CURSIVE
CAPITAL G, MOSTLY BECAUSE THAT'S
AN IMPOSSIBLE LETTER INVENTED BY
SOMEONE WHO WANTED TO MAKE
CHILDREN SUFFER.
IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE STABBING
HIMSELF IN THE STOMACH WITH A
PENCIL, BECAUSE THAT'S EXACTLY
WHAT TRYING TO WRITE THAT LETTER
MAKES YOU WANT TO FUCKING DO.
BUT REGARDLESS OF HOW THESE
COMPANIES GOT TO THIS POINT,
BOTH ENJOYED A HUGE SURGE OF
ATTENTION ABOUT A YEAR AND A
HALF AGO, AFTER THIS HAPPENED.
>> KALSHI MADE A NAME FOR ITSELF
IN THE 2024 ELECTION.
>> JUST OVER ONE WEEK AWAY FROM
ELECTION DAY, AND THE RACE IS
NECK AND NECK.
>> IT LOOKED CLOSE, UNLESS YOU
WERE KEEPING AN EYE ON KALSHI,
WHICH CALLED THE RACE WELL
BEFORE THE TV NETWORKS DID.
>> IT WAS LIKE, KALSHI, THEN
FOX, THEN CNN.
>> HOW DID THAT FEEL?
>> IT WAS CRAZY.
>> John: YEAH, KALSHI PREDICTED
TRUMP WOULD WIN, AS DID
POLYMARKET, WHOSE CEO THEN
TWEETED, "MAKE NO MISTAKE,
POLYMARKET SINGLE-HANDEDLY
CALLED THE ELECTION BEFORE
ANYTHING ELSE.
THE GLOBAL TRUTH MACHINE IS
HERE, POWERED BY THE PEOPLE."
AND WHILE IT'S NOT THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING, YOU'VE NOW MET
THE CEOS OF THESE TWO COMPANIES,
AND I'M JUST GONNA SAY: THEY'RE
TWO OF THE MOST "EXTRAS IN A
TOTINOS PIZZA ROLLS
COMMERCIAL"-LOOKING
MOTHERFUCKERS I'VE EVER SEEN IN
MY LIFE.
ANYWAY, SINCE THEN, THEY'VE BOTH
BEEN SCRAMBLING FOR MARKET
DOMINANCE, WHICH IS WHY KALSHI,
FOR INSTANCE, HAS RUN TV ADS
LIKE THIS.
>> INDIANA GONNA WIN, BABY.
>> WE'RE IN FLORIDA ASKING
PEOPLE WHAT THEY PUT THEIR MONEY
ON!
>> I'M ALL IN ON OKC!
>> INDIANA GOT THAT DOG IN 'EM!
>> WILL EGG PRICES GO UP THIS
MONTH?
>> I THINK WE'LL HIT $20.
>> HOW MANY HURRICANES DO YOU
THINK WE'LL HAVE THIS YEAR?
>> [SCREAMS]
>> KALSHI!
KALSHI!
>> KALSHI!
>> KALSHI LETS YOU LEGALLY TRADE
ON ANYTHING, ANYWHERE IN THE
U.S.
>> OKC!
>> INDIANA!
>> OKC!
>> KALSHI!
>> John: OKAY, THAT VISUAL
CACOPHONY IS AN AI SLOP
ATROCITY.
IT CONTAINED TWO ALLIGATORS,
FOUR SHIRTLESS OR NEARLY
SHIRTLESS OLD GUYS, ONE EGG
FREAK, THREE DIFFERENT PEOPLE
BEING PURSUED BY THE POLICE, ONE
WOMAN I'M KIND OF ROOTING FOR,
ONE USDA INSPECTOR'S FUCKING
NIGHTMARE, AND ONE ALIEN
SEEMINGLY ROOTING FOR DUKE,
WHICH -- HONESTLY -- TRACKS.
AND THE WHOLE THING ENDS WITH,
"THE WORLD'S GONE MAD, TRADE
IT," THOUGH GIVEN EVERYTHING
THAT CAME BEFORE, A MORE HONEST
TAGLINE WOULD'VE BEEN, "FUCK
EMPATHY, GET MONEY.
KALSHI."
AND AGAIN, THAT'S THE ONE THAT
LIKES TO PRESENT ITSELF AS THE
MORE BUTTONED-DOWN, RULE-ABIDING
COMPANY OF THE TWO.
AND AT THIS POINT, YOU MIGHT BE
THINKING: WAIT -- ISN'T THAT AN
AD FOR A GAMBLING SITE?
BUT BOTH KALSHI AND POLYMARKET
WILL FIERCELY ARGUE THAT'S NOT
WHAT THEY ARE AT ALL.
THEY ARGUE THAT GAMBLING
INVOLVES PLAYING AGAINST
"THE HOUSE," WHILE THEIR USERS
ARE TRADING AGAINST EACH OTHER,
WITH THE COMPANIES TYPICALLY
JUST CHARGING A FEE ON TRADES.
THEY'LL ALSO INSIST THEY'RE JUST
MODERN VERSIONS OF COMMODITY
FUTURES MARKETS, WHICH'VE BEEN
AROUND FOR OVER A CENTURY.
IF YOU'RE NOT FAMILIAR WITH
THEM, THEY'RE A PLACE WHERE
PEOPLE CAN SPECULATE ABOUT THE
FUTURE PRICE OF THINGS LIKE
CORN OR NATURAL GAS.
AND CRUCIALLY, THEY ARGUE THAT
THE BETS THEY SELL ARE FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENTS THAT ENABLE ORDINARY
PEOPLE TO HEDGE AGAINST FUTURE
RISKS -- LIKE BY BETTING THAT,
SAY, A HURRICANE WILL HIT, OR
THAT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WILL
SHUT DOWN.
HERE'S HOW KALSHI'S CEO FRAMES
IT.
>> WE HAD A MARKET ABOUT WHETHER
STUDENT LOANS ARE GOING TO BE
FORGIVEN OR NOT THIS YEAR.
AND SO, A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE
HEDGING USING THAT MARKET.
AND SO, IF IT WASN'T FORGIVEN,
THEY WOULD GET PAID SOME AMOUNT
OF MONEY THAT THEY COULD USE TO
BASICALLY PAY THE STUDENT LOAN.
AND THAT'S WHY THIS IS VERY
IMPORTANT.
>> John: RIGHT.
APPARENTLY, THEY'RE JUST TRYING
TO HELP PEOPLE MAKE WISE
PLANNING DECISIONS.
IT'S THE KIND OF RESPONSIBLE
FINANCIAL THINKING YOU
INTUITIVELY ASSOCIATE WITH A
COMPANY THAT ADVERTISES ITSELF
WITH A SHIRTLESS OLD MAN BEING
ARRESTED OR AN ALIEN PLEDGING
SIGMA CHI.
AND LOOK, THAT MIGHT MAKE SOME
SENSE WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT
AN ECONOMIC INDICATOR OR A
SPECIFIC EVENT THAT MIGHT IMPACT
YOU.
BUT WHAT EXACTLY IS THE
FINANCIAL LOSS THAT I'M HEDGING
AGAINST IF I BET ON THE NEXT
WINNER OF "THE MASKED SINGER" OR
ON WHETHER OR NOT MR. BEAST WILL
SAY "FEASTABLE?"
AND WHEN YOU WATCH SOME OF
KALSHI'S ACTUAL CUSTOMERS IN
ACTION, THE NOTION THAT THIS IS
ABOUT SOBER RISK MANAGEMENT
FEELS ABSURD.
>> I TELL YOU, IF I DIDN'T WIN
THIS ELECTION AND IF YOU HAD A
MORON LIKE KAMALA OR A MORON
LIKE SLEEPY JOE.
>> YEAH!
BANG!
NUMBER ONE, SLEEPY JOE!
>> WE'RE LOOKING GOOD SO FAR.
>> EASY, BRO.
OKAY.
ALL RIGHT.
>> WE MADE ABOUT $200 BUCKS."
>> OKAY.
ALL RIGHT.
$200 BUCKS.
>> MEN PLAYING IN WOMEN'S
SPORTS.
>> WAIT, WAIT, WAIT!
>> TRANSGENDER --
>> HEY!
>> YES!
>> HEY!
>> WE ARE OFF TO A GREAT START!
WE HIT ON THAT SHIT IMMEDIATELY!
>> SLEEPY JOE, TRANSGENDER.
>> WE GOT "SLEEPY JOE" AND
"TRANSGENDER" IN LIKE THE FIRST
FIVE MINUTES, BRO.
BRO, WE'RE UP LIKE $500 BUCKS.
>> WE GOT TO MAKE $1,000.
>> YEAH, WE GOT TO MAKE $1,000.
ALL RIGHT.
I HAVE NO -- LIKE I COULDN'T
EVEN TELL YOU WHAT THE [BLEEP]
THIS MAN IS SAYING.
LIKE, HE JUST SAYS A SOUP OF
RANDOM WORDS.
SOMEHOW JOEL IS JUST DECIPHERING
THIS AND JUST MAKING MONEY.
>> John: YEAH, THAT'S NOT USING
A FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT TO HEDGE
RISK.
IT'S TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A
SUN-DOWNING GERIATRIC'S RAPIDLY
DECLINING VERBAL ABILITIES.
OH, YOU BET HE'S GONNA SAY THE
WORD "NASTY?"
GREAT GUESS, DUDE, IT'S ONE OF
THE LAST 200 WORDS HE HAS LEFT.
HONESTLY, THAT CLIP'S UNSETTLING
ON MULTIPLE FRONTS -- ONE,
BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT'S HARMFUL
RHETORIC IS BEING DIVORCED FROM
ITS ACTUAL MEANING, BUT TWO,
BECAUSE THAT'S NOT WHAT THESE
BROS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE DOING.
THEY SHOULDN'T BE BETTING ON
TRUMP SPEECHES, THEY SHOULD BE
SITTING ON THAT SAME COUCH AND
WATCHING YOUTUBE HIGHLIGHT REELS
OF KEVIN LOVE OUTLET PASSES,
SIX MODELOS IN, FORGING A DEEP,
BEAUTIFUL FRIENDSHIP THAT'LL
LAST 40 YEARS AND THAT THEY'LL
NEVER EVER DISCUSS.
NATURE HAS LOST ITS COURSE.
THE POINT IS, THAT SURE LOOKS
LIKE GAMBLING.
AND IT'S PRETTY TELLING THAT,
WHILE POLITICAL "MENTIONS
MARKETS" LIKE THAT GET A LOT OF
ATTENTION, AROUND 90% OF TRADING
VOLUME ON KALSHI IS ON SPORTS.
BUT YOU CAN SEE WHY THESE
COMPANIES ARE SO INSISTENT THAT
THEY'RE NOT GAMBLING SITES.
JUST 39 STATES, D.C. AND PUERTO
RICO HAVE SOME FORM OF LEGALIZED
SPORTS BETTING -- WITH ONLY 32
OF THOSE ALLOWING ONLINE
GAMBLING, LEAVING SOME PRETTY
ATTRACTIVE MEGA-STATES LIKE
CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS ON THE
TABLE AND BY INSISTING THEY'RE
FINANCIAL EXCHANGES OFFERING NOT
BETS BUT "EVENT CONTRACTS,"
PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT ONLY
ABLE TO OPERATE IN STATES WHERE
GAMBLING ISN'T LEGAL -- BUT ALSO
GET AROUND STATE TAXES AND
MINIMUM-AGE REQUIREMENTS IN
STATES WHERE IT IS.
AND THEY'VE SOMETIMES TALKED OUT
OF BOTH SIDES OF THEIR MOUTH.
BECAUSE IN ADS LIKE THIS ONE,
KALSHI'S CALLED ITSELF "THE
FIRST NATIONWIDE LEGAL SPORTS
BETTING PLATFORM."
BUT WHEN ASKED ABOUT IT, IT
LATER TRIED TO QUALIFY THAT
STATEMENT, SAYING, "THE 'BET'
LANGUAGE IS ONLY USED IN THE
SENSE THAT ANY FINANCIAL
POSITION CAN BE CONSIDERED A
'BET' ON THE FUTURE."
AND THAT'S SO DUMB, IT'S ALMOST
CHARMING.
IT'S LIKE SEEING A SIGN OUTSIDE
A STRIP CLUB THAT SAYS "GIRLS
GIRLS GIRLS" AND THEN SEEING THE
MANAGER COME OUT AND SAY "WE
MEANT GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS WHO
CODE.
WE SUPPORT WOMEN IN STEM."
SURE YOU DO.
NICE TRY.
BUT THESE COMPANIES INSISTENCE
THAT THEY'RE NOT GAMBLING SITES
IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE TWO MOST
IRRITATING ARGUMENTS THESE SITES
TEND TO MAKE.
THE OTHER IS THAT THEY'RE
ACTUALLY INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT TO
SOCIETY, BECAUSE THEY CAN HELP
US MORE ACCURATELY PREDICT THE
FUTURE.
THE HEAD OF POLYMARKET'S EVEN
CALLED IT "THE MOST ACCURATE
THING WE HAVE AS MANKIND RIGHT
NOW," AND HAS BRAGGED THAT THE
PREDICTIONS IT GENERATES CAN
SAVE LIVES.
>> WHEN I GET HIT UP BY PEOPLE
IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHO ARE
SAYING THAT, HEY, WE'RE LOOKING
AT POLYMARKET TO DECIDE WHETHER
WE SLEEP NEAR THE BOMB SHELTER.
LIKE, WE LOOK AT IT EVERY DAY.
AND I'M LIKE, OH, IT'S REALLY
THAT POPULAR OVER THERE?
ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
DO YOU NOT EVEN KNOW WHAT'S
GOING ON?
LIKE, EVERYONE'S RELYING ON
THIS.
THAT'S VERY POWERFUL.
THAT'S LIKE AN UNDENIABLE VALUE
PROPOSITION THAT DID NOT EXIST
BEFORE
>> John: HEY, QUICK QUESTION:
WHAT EXACT STAGE OF CAPITALISM
ARE WE IN WHEN THE CHILD CEO OF
AN OFFSHORE GAMBLING PLATFORM
REFERS TO BETTING ODDS ON
BOMBINGS AS AN "UNDENIABLE VALUE
PROPOSITION?"
BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE WE'RE IN
PALLIATIVE CARE AT THIS POINT.
BUT I GUESS THAT'S THE POINT YOU
REACH WHEN YOU'RE A 27-YEAR-OLD
BILLIONAIRE, SURROUNDED BY YES
MEN WHO'LL NEVER TELL YOU THE
TRUTH, SOMETHING I KNOW FOR SURE
BECAUSE NO ONE IN THAT BOY'S
LIFE TOLD HIM NEVER TO WEAR THAT
JACKET, WHICH -- WHEN HE'S
SITTING LIKE THAT --
UNMISTAKABLY SAYS "PEED RIDER."
THOUGH FOR ALL THE TALK OF THESE
SITES' UNPARALLELED ACCURACY --
YOU SHOULD KNOW, THAT'S A BIT OF
AN OVERSELL.
THEY HAVE SHOWN PROMISE IN SOME
AREAS -- A RECENT PAPER FOUND
KALSHI'S PREDICTIONS WERE
"ROUGHLY CONSISTENT" WITH THOSE
OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS WHEN
IT CAME TO THE ECONOMY AND
FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY.
BUT THEY'VE ALSO HAD SOME BIG
MISSES.
FOR INSTANCE, BOTH FAVORED THE
CHIEFS TO WIN LAST YEAR'S SUPER
BOWL, AND ALSO WHIFFED THE
RECENT TEXAS REPUBLICAN SENATE
PRIMARY, WITH POLYMARKET EVEN
POSTING A "BREAKING" ALERT THAT
MORNING, ANNOUNCING KEN PAXTON
WAS PROJECTED TO WIN, WITH THEIR
ODDS GIVING HIM AN 83% CHANCE.
AND, Y'KNOW...
HE DIDN'T DO THAT.
AND LOOK, ALL OF THAT WOULD BE
FINE.
THESE ARE JUST ODDS, AND REAL
LIFE CAN DEFY ODDS.
WERE IT NOT FOR THE FACT THAT
THESE COMPANIES ARE ACTIVELY
SELLING THEMSELVES AS BASICALLY
ORACLES.
AND THEY'VE EVEN TRIED TO
BOLSTER THAT REPUTATION BY
ENTERING PAID PARTNERSHIP DEALS
WITH NEWS ORGANIZATIONS.
DOW JONES, PARENT COMPANY OF THE
"WALL STREET JOURNAL," ANNOUNCED
A PARTNERSHIP WITH POLYMARKET
EARLIER THIS YEAR, WHILE CNN,
CNBC AND FOX NEWS ALL SIGNED
DEALS WITH KALSHI, WHICH EVEN
SPONSORS SEGMENTS ON CNN THAT
FEATURE KALSHI'S ODDS ON VARIOUS
FUTURE EVENTS SCROLLING ACROSS
THE BOTTOM OF THE SCREEN.
AND I DO NOT WANT THE CNN
TICKER TO HAVE BETTING ODDS ON
NEWS EVENTS.
I DON'T REALLY WANT ANYTHING
THERE, EXCEPT MAYBE THE ODD
DISTRACTINGLY WEIRD HEADLINE
THAT TAKES MY MIND OFF THINGS
FOR A SECOND.
SOMETHING LIKE, "GIRAFFE ESCAPES
FROM ZOO -- POLICE SAY IT HAS A
GUN."
YOU KNOW, SOMETHING FUN TO
GOOGLE LATER.
BUT HAVING THEIR LOGO LIKE THAT
ON CNN IS A BIG WIN FOR KALSHI.
JUST AS IT'S A BIG WIN FOR THEM
TO HAVE INFLUENCERS LIKE THAT
GUY FROM EARLIER SAYING HOW EASY
IT IS TO WIN MONEY.
THOUGH YOU SHOULD KNOW, AFTER WE
ASKED, AND HE TOLD US HE WAS
PAID BY KALSHI FOR THAT POST.
AND IT FEELS LIKE INFLUENCERS
SHOULD BE MORE TRANSPARENT ABOUT
THAT.
IT MAKES ME A LITTLE ANNOYED.
AND EVEN MORE HUNGRY.
AND WHEN I NEED SOMETHING
NUTRITIOUS, YET IN A CAN, I KNOW
WHERE TO TURN: BUSH'S BAKED
BEANS.
BUT FULL DISCLOSURE, I WAS PAID
$40 TO SAY THAT.
BUT IT'S WORTH KNOWING THAT, IN
REALITY, AS WITH SPORTSBOOKS,
RESEARCHERS HAVE FOUND THAT MOST
USERS OF KALSHI AND POLYMARKET
LOSE MONEY.
AS WE'VE DISCUSSED BEFORE,
CASUAL GAMBLERS ARE ALWAYS GOING
TO BE EASY PREY FOR MORE
SOPHISTICATED OPERATORS WITH
ADVANCED SYSTEMS TO GIVE THEM AN
EDGE.
WHICH IS PROBABLY WHY, WHILE
POLYMARKET HAS MORE THAN TWO
MILLION USERS, ONE ANALYSIS
FOUND MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF
ALL MONEY WON ON IT WAS HELD BY
JUST 740 ACCOUNTS.
AND IF YOU'RE THINKING, "HOW,
EXACTLY, ARE THESE COMPANIES
GETTING AWAY WITH THIS?"
WELL, A LOT HAS TO DO WITH WHO'S
IN THE WHITE HOUSE RIGHT NOW.
BOTH COMPANIES HAVE FOSTERED
STRONG CONNECTIONS WITH THE
TRUMP FAMILY -- IN FACT, DON JR.
IS BOTH AN INVESTOR IN AND AN
UNPAID ADVISER TO POLYMARKET,
AND A PAID ADVISER TO KALSHI.
AND LOOK, I'M NOT SAYING THAT
DON JR. ISN'T PROVIDING
IMPORTANT OR VALUABLE INSIGHTS
-- THOUGH, IN A TRUER SENSE, I
VERY MUCH AM.
I'M JUST SAYING, IT'S NOTABLE
JUST HOW HARD IT WAS FOR
KALSHI'S CEO TO ANSWER A SERIES
OF BASIC QUESTIONS ABOUT
DON JR.'S ROLE.
>> WHY DID YOU GUYS MAKE
DONALD TRUMP JR. A STRATEGIC
ADVISOR?
>> WE HAVE A LOT OF ADVISORS,
AND THEY SPAN ACROSS THE BOARD,
ACROSS DIFFERENT FUNCTIONS.
BUT REALLY, THIS IS ALL ABOUT
GROWING THIS INDUSTRY, THE
PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY, THAT
A LOT OF PEOPLE REALLY BELIEVE
IN.
>> WHAT KIND OF ADVICE DOES HE
GIVE YOU?
>> SO, IT REALLY IS, AGAIN,
ABOUT GROWING PREDICTION
MARKETS.
YOU KNOW, HE BELIEVES IN
PREDICTION MARKETS.
WE BELIEVE IN PREDICTION
MARKETS.
A LOT OF PEOPLE BELIEVE IN
PREDICTION MARKETS, AND IT'S
REALLY ABOUT GO-TO-MARKET AND
EXPANSION PLANS.
>> DOES HE COME TO MEETINGS?
HOW MUCH DO YOU PAY HIM?
WHAT'S HIS ROLE?
I MEAN, THIS IS THE SON OF THE
PRESIDENT.
>> WE, AGAIN, I MEAN, WE HAVE A
LOT OF ADVISORS.
AND WHETHER IT'S OUR INVESTORS,
WHETHER IT'S PEOPLE THAT WE
REALLY TRUST AND RESPECT,
WHETHER PEOPLE --
>> BUT HE'S NOT JUST ANY
ADVISOR.
HE HAS A DIRECT LINE TO THE
WHITE HOUSE.
>> WE HAVE A LOT OF ADVISORS.
>> John: YEAH, TURNS OUT IT'S
PRETTY HARD TO JUSTIFY HIRING A
NEPO BABY, OR IN DON JR.'S CASE
"A NEPO DIVORCED DAD."
BUT THE THING IS, IF HIRING
DON JR. HELPED GET THESE
COMPANIES ON TRUMP'S GOOD SIDE,
IT'S A BET THAT'S PAID OFF
MASSIVELY FOR THEM.
BECAUSE WHILE THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION HAD AT LEAST
TRIED TO REIN IN SOME OF WHAT
THESE MARKETS WERE DOING, THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S GONE HARD
IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.
AND TO UNDERSTAND THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THAT'S THE CASE, TAKE A
LOOK AT THE CFTC, OR COMMODITY
FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION.
IT REGULATES THESE PLATFORMS.
AND IT WAS ACTUALLY EMPOWERED,
UNDER THE DODD-FRANK ACT IN
2010, TO BLOCK EVENT CONTRACTS
ABOUT TERRORISM, ASSASSINATION,
WAR, AND GAMING -- Y'KNOW, A
BUNCH OF WHAT YOU'VE SEEN SO
FAR TONIGHT.
BUT IT'S CLEARLY NOT ENFORCING
THAT RULE UNDER TRUMP, AND
DOESN'T EVEN SEEM TO BE TRYING.
IN FACT, WHILE THE CFTC'S
SUPPOSED TO BE COMPRISED OF FIVE
COMMISSIONERS, TWO OF WHOM ARE
REQUIRED TO BELONG TO THE
MINORITY PARTY, IT CURRENTLY
ONLY HAS THIS GUY,
MICHAEL SELIG, A TRUMP APPOINTEE
WHO'S A MASSIVE CHEERLEADER FOR
THIS INDUSTRY.
HE COMPLETELY BUYS INTO THEIR
WHOLE "THIS IS ALL ABOUT HEDGING
RISK" ARGUMENT, TO THE POINT HE
ONCE SUGGESTED THAT SOMEBODY
WITH A MEDICAL CONDITION COULD
MANAGE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF
HAVING A FUTURE TREATMENT OR
MEDICAL COSTS BY PLACING A BET
ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOMETHING
PASSING A DRUG TRIAL.
WHICH IS, AND I DON'T SAY THIS
LIGHTLY, ONE OF THE MOST FUCKED
UP SUGGESTIONS I'VE EVER HEARD
FOR THIS COUNTRY'S GUERNICA-ASS
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.
AND WHILE SELIG'S RECENTLY MADE
NOISES ABOUT STRONGER
ENFORCEMENT, IT'S HARD TO TAKE
HIM AT HIS WORD, GIVEN THAT,
DURING HIS CONFIRMATION
HEARINGS, HE TOLD CONGRESS HE'D
LET COURTS DECIDE WHETHER THESE
COMPANIES CONSTITUTE GAMBLING.
BUT IN OFFICE, HE'S DONE THE
EXACT OPPOSITE -- IN FACT, MORE
THAN A DOZEN STATES ARE
CURRENTLY SUING PREDICTION
MARKETS, BUT RATHER THAN LET
THAT PLAY OUT IN THE COURTS LIKE
HE PROMISED, SELIG POSTED THIS
VIDEO.
>> TO THOSE WHO SEEK TO
CHALLENGE OUR AUTHORITY IN THIS
SPACE, LET ME BE CLEAR: WE WILL
SEE YOU IN COURT.
>> John: WHAT A FUCKING WEASEL.
THAT GUY HAS BOTH THE ENERGY AND
FASHION SENSE OF A "SUITS"
VILLAIN WHO GOES TOE-TO-TOE WITH
HARVEY AND MIKE ALL SEASON LONG
WHILE LOUIS AND MEGHAN MARKLE --
I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU SAY,
THAT'S HER CHARACTER NAME TO ME
-- WATCH ON.
BUT HE'S DONE MORE THAN JUST
THREATEN -- SELIG'S LED HIS
AGENCY TO SUE THREE STATES TO
GET THEM TO BACK OFF TRYING TO
REGULATE PREDICTION MARKETS.
SO RIGHT NOW, THESE COMPANIES
ARE ABLE TO OPERATE UNDER
EXTREMELY FRIENDLY CONDITIONS.
AND GIVEN THAT, IT'S WORTH
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PROBLEMS
THAT'VE ALREADY BEGUN TO EMERGE.
STARTING WITH THE FACT THAT, FOR
A LOT OF THESE BETS, IT'S
INCREDIBLY EASY FOR INDIVIDUALS
TO MANIPULATE THE OUTCOMES.
SOME HAVE EVEN JOKED ABOUT THAT
-- FOR INSTANCE, ON A RECENT
EARNINGS CALL, THE CEO OF
COINBASE SAID THIS.
>> I WAS A LITTLE DISTRACTED
BECAUSE I WAS TRACKING THE
PREDICTION MARKET ABOUT WHAT
COINBASE WILL SAY ON THEIR NEXT
EARNINGS CALL, AND I JUST WANT
TO ADD HERE THE WORDS BITCOIN,
ETHEREUM, BLOCKCHAIN, STAKING,
AND WEB3 TO MAKE SURE WE GET
THOSE IN BEFORE THE END OF THE
CALL.
>> John: YEAH, HE SAW PEOPLE'S
BETS ONLINE AND JUST RATTLED OFF
WORDS THEY'D BET ON HIM SAYING.
AND IT REALLY FEELS LIKE
MANIPULATING BETTING OUTCOMES
SHOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN
THAT.
IN THE OLD DAYS YOU AT LEAST HAD
TO SNEAK COCAINE TO A RACE
HORSE, NOT JUST RATTLE OFF A
LIST OF THE MOST PUNCHABLE WORDS
IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE.
WE EVEN REALIZED, WHILE
RESEARCHING THIS PIECE, THAT
THERE WAS BETTING HAPPENING
AROUND THIS SHOW --
SPECIFICALLY, ON WHAT WORDS I'D
SAY DURING OUR SHOW
ON FEBRUARY 22.
WHICH IS STUPID FOR MULTIPLE
REASONS, INCLUDING THAT WE TAPE
ON SATURDAY, IN FRONT OF A
STUDIO AUDIENCE, ALL OF WHOM
WOULD THEN HAVE A MASSIVE
INFORMATION ADVANTAGE AND MORE
THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE THE BETTING
WINDOW CLOSED.
NOW, THANKFULLY, WE WIPE EVERY
AUDIENCE MEMBER'S MEMORY BEFORE
WE LET THEM OUT OF THE TAPING.
WE TRY TO ERASE ONLY THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT SOMETIMES WE
DO WIPE CLEAN A MILESTONE
BIRTHDAY.
THAT'S ON US AND WE'RE
CONSTANTLY CALIBRATING THE
TECHNOLOGY.
YOU'VE BEEN WARNED.
YOU WON'T REMEMBER, BUT YOU WERE
WARNED.
AND THERE ARE MARKETS WHERE IT'S
WAY TOO EASY FOR ANYONE TO
MANIPULATE OUTCOMES.
JUST LAST SUMMER, YOU MIGHT
REMEMBER, A BUNCH OF ASSHOLES
STARTED THROWING DILDOS ON THE
COURT DURING WNBA GAMES TO
PROMOTE A CRYPTO MEME COIN.
AND IF THAT WASN'T ALREADY A
CURSED ENOUGH SENTENCE, I'LL LET
THIS SOUTH AFRICAN MAN FILL YOU
IN ON WHAT HAPPENED NEXT.
>> DID YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN
ACTUALLY BET ON WHETHER A DILDO
WILL BE THROWN AT THE WNBA GAME
ON AUGUST 9, AUGUST 11 -- THAT'S
TODAY -- AND AUGUST 12.
RIGHT HERE ON POLYMARKET.
I HAD NO IDEA, ACTUALLY I HAD NO
IDEA WHAT THE WNBA WAS EITHER,
UNTIL, Y'KNOW, YOU COULD PLACE A
BET ON WHETHER A DILDO WOULD BE
THROWN AT IT.
>> John: YEAH, NONE OF THAT'S
GREAT.
AND IT'S PRETTY DEPRESSING THAT
THE WAY HE LEARNED ABOUT THE
EXISTENCE OF THE WNBA WAS
FINDING OUT YOU COULD BET ON
WHETHER A DILDO WOULD BE THROWN
AT ONE OF ITS GAMES.
IT'D BE LIKE FINDING OUT ABOUT
THE EXISTENCE OF ROBERT DE NIRO
BY GOOGLING "THE CAST OF DIRTY
GRANDPA."
AW, NO.
NOT LIKE THIS.
DON'T LEARN ABOUT HIM LIKE THIS.
BUT IT'S TRUE -- PEOPLE STARTED
BETTING WHETHER DILDOS WOULD BE
THROWN AGAIN, AND POLYMARKET
EVEN PUT UP THIS TWEET PROMOTING
THE BETS.
AND SURE ENOUGH, MORE DILDOS GOT
THROWN -- AND THAT COULD WELL
HAVE BEEN BECAUSE POLYMARKET HAD
JUST CREATED A SITUATION WHERE
YOU COULD EASILY MAKE MONEY BY
BETTING SOMEONE WOULD THROW A
DILDO, AND THEN GOING TO A GAME
WITH A DILDO AND THROWING IT.
THERE'VE ALSO BEEN MULTIPLE
INSTANCES OF PEOPLE SEEMING TO
USE INSIDE INFORMATION TO GAME
THESE MARKETS.
LAST YEAR, A TRADER MADE $1.2
MILLION WITH A SET OF ACCURATE
BETS ABOUT WHO'D BE GOOGLE'S
RANKINGS OF THE MOST-SEARCHED
PEOPLE OF 2025 -- THAT SAME
PERSON, BY THE WAY, HAD
PREVIOUSLY EARNED MORE THAN
$100,000 BY CORRECTLY BETTING ON
THE RELEASE DATE OF GOOGLE'S
GEMINI 3 MODEL.
WHICH MAKES YOU THINK THAT
PERSON EITHER WORKED FOR GOOGLE,
OR KNEW SOMEONE WHO DID, OR
MAYBE MANAGED TO HACK GOOGLE
FROM THE OUTSIDE, IN WHICH CASE,
WOULD IT KILL YOU TO DO A GOOGLE
DOODLE FOR MY BIRTHDAY.
IT'S ON THURSDAY.
AND POLYMARKET'S CEO HAS, IN THE
PAST, OPENLY CELEBRATED THE FACT
THIS KIND OF THING CAN HAPPEN ON
HIS PLATFORM, BECAUSE HE'S
ARGUED IT JUST MAKES ITS
PREDICTION ABILITIES THAT MUCH
STRONGER.
>> WHAT DO YOU GUYS DO, IF
ANYTHING, TO BASICALLY GUARD
AGAINST INSIDER TRADING?
>> YEAH.
SO, IT GOES BACK TO THIS IDEA OF
INFORMATIONAL MARKETS, RIGHT?
LIKE, YOU THINK ABOUT WHEN WILL
GEMINI 3 LAUNCH?
NOBODY IS UNDER THE IMPRESSION
THAT NOBODY KNOWS THE ANSWER,
RIGHT?
LIKE, OF COURSE, THERE'S PEOPLE
WHO ARE WORKING ON IT WHO KNOW
WHEN IT'S GONNA COME.
AND I THINK WHAT'S COOL ABOUT
POLYMARKET IS THAT IT CREATES
THIS FINANCIAL INCENTIVE FOR
PEOPLE TO GO AND DIVULGE THE
INFORMATION TO THE MARKET, AND
THE MARKET TO CHANGE, AND ALL OF
A SUDDEN IT'S TRADING AT $.95
CENTS, AND PEOPLE ARE LIKE, OH
--
>> I MEAN, YOU -- WHEN YOU SAY
DIVULGE, YOU MEAN THE PEOPLE WHO
ACTUALLY KNOW?
>> YEAH, OR SOMEONE TELLS
SOMEONE AND THEN THE MARKET
RESPONDS.
>> John: YEAH, HE BASICALLY JUST
ANSWERED THE QUESTION "HOW DO
YOU GUARD AGAINST INSIDER
TRADING" THERE WITH "NO."
AND HE DID IT WITH A FASHION
CHOICE SOMEHOW EVEN WORSE THAN
HIS BIKER JACKET, BECAUSE WHAT
IN THE NYU ARMY FATIGUES IS THAT
SHIT?
THAT SWEATER LOOKS LIKE IT WAS
MADE FROM ILLEGALLY POACHED
GRIMACE.
BUT ALSO, I DON'T CARE HOW MANY
STATEMENT SWEATERS YOU WEAR OR
HOW MANY "BEN PLATT IN DEAR EVAN
HANSEN" HAIRCUTS YOU HAVE -
YOU'RE NOT DESCRIBING SOME EDGY
CHILL WAY TO DIVULGE INFORMATION
TO THE MARKET.
YOU'RE DESCRIBING INSIDER
TRADING.
AND IT GETS GENUINELY CHILLING
WHEN YOU REALIZE THAT PEOPLE
SEEM TO BE USING INSIDER INFO TO
BET ON LIFE-OR-DEATH EVENTS.
IN JANUARY, AFTER THE U.S.
SEIZED NICOLAS MADURO, AN
ANONYMOUS TRADER POCKETED MORE
THAN $400,000 OFF BETS THAT
WOULD HAPPEN, WITH THE BULK OF
THOSE BETS MADE MERE HOURS
BEFORE THE RAID WAS ANNOUNCED.
IN FEBRUARY, TWO ISRAELIS WERE
CHARGED WITH USING CLASSIFIED
MILITARY INFORMATION TO PLACE
BETS ON POLYMARKET.
AND IN MARCH, THIS HAPPENED.
>> DEADLY AMERICAN STRIKES, AND
SOME PEOPLE MAY HAVE MADE MONEY
FROM THEM.
MORE THAN A DOZEN ANONYMOUS
ACCOUNTS PLACED BETS PREDICTING
THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD
STRIKE IRAN BY SATURDAY THE 28TH
OF FEBRUARY.
MOST OF THOSE WAGERS WERE PLACED
IN THE HOURS BEFORE THE FIRST
BOMBS FELL.
AND MANY OF THE ACCOUNTS HAD
BEEN CREATED ONLY DAYS EARLIER.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST WINNERS USED
THE ACCOUNT NAME "MAGAMYMAN."
THE TRADER PLACED $87,000 ON A
WAR WITH IRAN EXACTLY 71 MINUTES
BEFORE THE FIRST STRIKE, WINNING
A JACKPOT WORTH $515,000.
>> John: YEAH, THAT SURE FEELS
LIKE SOMEONE WITH INSIDE
INFORMATION WAS BETTING ON
POLYMARKET.
AND I'D SAY IT WASN'T A GREAT
IDEA TO MAKE THEIR USERNAME
"MAGA MY MAN," EXCEPT IT DOESN'T
SEEM TO MATTER ANYMORE.
HIS USERNAME MIGHT AS WELL HAVE
BEEN "MAGA MY MAN JUST KIDDING
MY NAME IS DYLAN BARTHWELL AND I
WORK AT THE DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE."
HE'S NOT REALLY RISKING MUCH.
NOW, I SHOULD SAY, KALSHI JUST
ANNOUNCED IT TOOK ACTION IN TWO
INSIDER TRADING CASES, AND HAS
TAKEN OUT BILLBOARDS BRAGGING
THAT IT BANS INSIDER TRADING,
AND ALSO THAT IT DOESN'T OFFER
DEATH MARKETS.
WHICH IS A LITTLE WEIRD!
IT'D BE LIKE MCDONALD'S PUTTING
UP ADS THAT ITS NUGGETS "DON'T
CONTAIN BABY MEAT."
OKAY MAMA, BUT NOW I HAVE WAY
MORE QUESTIONS!
FOR ITS PART, POLYMARKET
RECENTLY UPDATED ITS RULES TO
CLARIFY THAT USERS CAN'T ACT ON
STOLEN CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION,
WAGER USING ILLEGAL TIPS, OR BET
IF THEY'RE IN A POSITION TO
INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME OF AN
EVENT.
ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT A GREAT SIGN
THAT JUST RECENTLY, THERE WAS A
SUSPICIOUS SPIKE IN TRADING
RIGHT BEFORE THE CEASEFIRE WITH
IRAN WAS ANNOUNCED, AS A GROUP
OF NEW ACCOUNTS ON POLYMARKET
MADE HIGHLY SPECIFIC, WELL-TIMED
BETS ABOUT IT, EARNING HUNDREDS
OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS.
SO IT SURE SEEMS LIKE RIGHT NOW,
WE'VE EFFECTIVELY GOT GAMBLING
SITES OPERATING EVEN IN STATES
WHERE GAMBLING IS ILLEGAL, AND
OFFERING BETS ON THINGS THERE'VE
BEEN LAWS AGAINST FOR OVER A
DECADE.
SO, WHAT CAN WE DO?
WELL, AT THE BARE MINIMUM, THE
CFTC SHOULD BE DOING MORE,
WELL IT SAYS IT'S RUNNING WRITING NEW
RULES, I WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
TO HAPPEN AS LONG AS THIS
FUCKING GUY IN CHARGE.
AS I SAID, THERE ARE A BUNCH OF
CASES MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE COURTS RIGHT NOW, BUT IT'S
NOT CLEAR HOW THEY'LL RESOLVE,
AND IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE IN
FRONT OF THE SUPREME COURT.
MEANWHILE, CONGRESS IS
CONSIDERING A NUMBER OF
PROPOSALS TACKLING ASPECTS OF
THIS ISSUE -- ALTHOUGH, GIVEN
THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES HAS A KID CURRENTLY
ADVISING BOTH MAJOR COMPANIES, I
WOULDN'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.
SO MEANING POLICY SHIFTS IN THE
NEAR TERM SEEMS UNLIKELY.
BUT AT SOME POINT, WE DO NEED TO
PUT IN PLACE SOME BASIC
GUARDRAILS.
AND UNTIL THEN, IF WE CAN'T
CHANGE HOW THESE SITES OPERATE,
WE SHOULD AT LEAST TRY AND
CHANGE HOW WE INDIVIDUALLY SEE
THEM.
ONE THING THAT WOULD FRANKLY
HELP IS IF NEWS ORGANIZATIONS
STOPPED LAUNDERING THESE
COMPANIES' REPUTATIONS FOR THEM
BY PUTTING THEIR ODDS ON SCREEN
LIKE THEY'RE ACTUAL NEWS.
BECAUSE IS IT A BAD IDEA FOR
THEM TO BE DOING THAT?
IF I MAY QUOTE THE SINGLE
LOUDEST MAN IN THE WORLD...
>> YES!
>> John: YES.
EXACTLY.
I COULD NOT HAVE SCREAMED IT
BETTER MYSELF.
AND LOOK, ON A PERSONAL LEVEL,
IF YOU'RE USING THESE MARKETS TO
GAMBLE, TRY AND REMEMBER THAT
YOU'RE STATISTICALLY LIKELY TO
LOSE MONEY.
AND WHILE I'M NOT AGAINST
GAMBLING PER SE, THERE'S
SOMETHING SO GRIM ABOUT THESE
SITES TURNING EVERY ASPECT OF
OUR LIVES INTO A BET.
BECAUSE SURE, MONEY CAN BE WON
ON THEM -- BUT IN THAT
HAPPENING, SOMETHING ALSO GETS
LOST.
SPECIFICALLY, A SOCIETY WHERE
THINGS AREN'T ONLY WEIGHED IN
FINANCIAL TERMS, AND WHERE
PEOPLE ENGAGE WITH NEWS FOR WHAT
IT MEANS TO HUMAN BEINGS, NOT
JUST BECAUSE THEY HAVE $50
RIDING ON IT.
AND WHEN SOMETHING UNEXPECTED
HAPPENS IN THE WORLD, IT'D BE
NICE NOT TO HAVE TO
AUTOMATICALLY QUESTION WHETHER
IT'S ONLY BECAUSE SOMEONE'S
TRYING TO MOVE A MARKET.
THAT'S WHY I'M GOING TO MAKE YOU
A PROMISE TONIGHT: I WILL NEVER
DO ANYTHING, BECAUSE SOMEONE
ONLINE PLACED A BET ON IT.
SO YOU CAN BE CONFIDENT THAT IF
I EVER SAY "BITCOIN, ETHEREUM,
BLOCKCHAIN, STAKING, AND WEB3,"
IT'S WON'T BE BECAUSE I'M TRYING
TO MOVE MARKETS, IT'LL BE
BECAUSE I'M HAVING A STROKE.
AND ONCE YOU HAVE THAT TRUST,
YOU CAN FEEL SECURE IN THE
KNOWLEDGE THAT IF A DILDO EVER
LANDS ON THIS DESK, IT'S NOT
BECAUSE SOMEONE HAD A SECRET
WAGER ON IT.
IT'S BECAUSE WE WEREN'T SURE HOW
TO GET OUT OF A 32-MINUTE
SEGMENT ON A QUASI-LEGAL
GAMBLING INDUSTRY, BUT WE KNEW
THAT A THROWN DILDO -- IN THE
RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES, AND WITH
THE FULL CONSENT OF THE PERSON
HAVING IT THROWN AT THEM --
WOULD BE UNDENIABLY FUNNY.
AND IF MORE THAN ONE DILDOS
LANDS, IT'LL ONLY BE BECAUSE A
FUNDAMENTAL RULE OF COMEDY IS
"MORE DILDOS IS MORE FUNNY."
AND IF IT TURNS OUT THERE ARE
TOO MANY DILDOS FLYING THROUGH
THE AIR, I PROMISE, IT'LL ONLY
BE BECAUSE WE DIDN'T KNOW HOW
MANY TO BUY, AND NOW WE'RE SORT
OF SCREWED BECAUSE I DON'T THINK
YOU'RE ALLOWED TO RETURN THEM.
THAT IS OUR SHOW.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING.
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.
GOOD NIGHT!
THIS IS -- THIS IS JUST TOO MANY
DILDOS!
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]
♪ ♪