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[happy music]

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Downloaded from
YTS.LT

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[breaking noise]

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[spooky music]

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Official YIFY movies site:
YTS.LT

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[exciting music]

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[ufo sound]

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- [Brian] UFOs. They're
not just in the skies.

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They're in the newspaper.

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They're on TV. They're in old books,

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and they're what your
friends are talking about today.

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They're in the stories
you heard growing up,

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and they keep coming back into our lives.

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They're in our lives right now.

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Since 2017, the media has been cramming

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UFOs and alien visitation down our throats.

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It's the latest craze on
TV's pseudo-science

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and pseudo-history networks.

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The result is that between 2019 and 2021,

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Americans' belief that some UFOs are aliens

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has risen from 33% to 41%

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according to a recent Gallup poll.

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We can't help but think
about aliens and UFOs,

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but how much of that thinking is informed

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by the real sciences involved?

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My name is Brian
Dunning, I'm a science writer

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and I love coming out here to the desert

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in the American west to
look up at our amazing skies.

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I've personally been lucky
enough to see something,

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three times in fact,

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that I couldn't figure
out what it might be.

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Now, I did soon learn what they were

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but for a few minutes I had
a magical rush like no other.

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There's something up there,

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something we can't explain.

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But we all have in the back of
our minds what we hope it is.

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This observatory is one of the places

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where we look deep into space

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to peek into the most interesting stars.

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It makes us wonder who's out there.

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In any given patch of the sky,

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how many life forms are there

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in just that little field of view?

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Now, that's a question
that should intrigue anyone,

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but here's an even better one.

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In that same patch of sky,

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how many eyes are there looking back at us?

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For me, personally,

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that's about the most
exciting question there is.

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Now, I work for an educational nonprofit.

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Sometimes we make movies,

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sometimes we make videos or podcasts.

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But in that educational role,

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we can't just tell you what we think

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or what we wish was true.

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We're limited to what's verifiable.

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So we report on the latest

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and the greatest state of our knowledge,

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what scientists have learned so far,

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how they learned it, what
they're still working on.

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It's about our best
knowledge and the latest data.

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That's what we're going to talk about here.

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You already know that I love to wonder

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about our neighbors in the universe.

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You already know that
I'm fascinated by UFOs

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and I want to learn more about them,

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and you can't help but to have been exposed

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to all the attention UFOs
have been getting in the media

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these past few years.

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Navy videos. TV series.

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Congressional hearings. Personalities.

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It's been everywhere.

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So obviously a lot of
us are very interested

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in these things.

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So tonight I want to combine these,

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I'm going to present a science-based report

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free of any personal bias on this subject

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that we all seem to
have a mutual interest in.

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What are these things in our sky?

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What do we know, and how do we know it?

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Who is out there – or isn't
– and how do we know?

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And of course, the million dollar question,

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the one that really
overrides all the others:

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Are they visiting us?

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Now, spoiler alert, we don't
have all the answers yet,

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but we do have a lot of them.

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Are you ready?

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I am.

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Let's blast off.

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One of the biggest questions
we face as human beings

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on the planet Earth is
the possibility of alien life,

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other worlds, maybe other civilizations,

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other smart people who
are like us in some ways

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and unlike us in many others.

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So what do the folks who
study these questions think?

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This is astrobiologist
Dr. Kaitlin Rasmussen.

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I spoke with her at the 107 inch telescope

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at the McDonald Observatory in Texas.

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- [Kaitlin] So I think the general opinion

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in the field of astrobiology

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is that there is a lot of
life out there in the galaxy.

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I really think that the galaxy

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is absolutely teeming with life.

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Whether that life is intelligent,

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is really up for question,
but I have no doubt

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and many of my peers have no doubt

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that there is a lot of life out there.

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- [Brian] And her colleague, Miles Currie,

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also an astrobiologist.

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- Right, yeah, so I would
say most astronomers

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have come to the consensus that we think

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there is some kind of life out there.

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Now, whether that is intelligent life

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or just microbes out there
is a totally different question.

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- [Brian] And this is Dakotah Tyler.

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He's an astrophysicist.

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- So most astronomers
believe that there is life

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in the universe, without a doubt.

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- A lot, a little?

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- A lot or a little could depend

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upon exactly what you're talking about

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in terms of intelligence
or advanced civilization,

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but I would say a lot of life.

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- That shouldn't come as a surprise.

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In 1952, Miller and Urey put a sample

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of the primordial Earth's
atmosphere into a test tube,

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sparked it to simulate lightning,

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and created more than 20 amino acids,

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the basic building blocks of life.

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But there was nothing about their mixture

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unique to the Earth.

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It was what the atmosphere would consist of

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on any newly formed rocky volcanic planet.

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The Miller-Urey experiment
gets replicated all the time.

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Only now we've refined
it with better estimates

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of the atmospheric composition

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and we get even more amino acids produced.

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Those same conditions have
been happening on rocky planets

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throughout the universe
since the beginning of time.

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So how many planets is that?

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Well check this out.

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It's a video from NASA
showing all the exoplanets

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we've found so far.

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[gentle polyphonic music]

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We've found over 5,000,

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but that number's going
up so fast that 5,000

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probably sounds comically low

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by the time you're watching this.

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And that super dense
patch of planets right there,

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it's not that there are more planets there

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than anywhere else,

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that's just where we happen
to know about a lot of them

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because it's where the Kepler
space telescope was pointed

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for the duration of its initial mission,

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which was to do a really deep study

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of just one tiny patch of sky.

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There are actually even more there,

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a lot more, that Kepler
wasn't able to resolve;

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and that's really what the
entire Milky Way looks like.

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In fact, we figure there
are tens of billions of planets

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and that's just right
here in our local galaxy.

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That's more planets than
there are people on Earth.

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Billions more.

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On all those planets,

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are there any civilizations right now?

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Rich civilizations with
culture, arts, science,

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history and space programs of their own?

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I don't know what your math tells you

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but my math says there are probably many

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out there right now.

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If there are alien
astrobiologists out there

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and if they're asking these same questions,

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then our Earth is going to be
about the most exciting target

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in the sky.

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Allow me to explain.

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When we look for life on other planets,

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we use spectroscopic analysis

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to look at the chemical
makeup of their atmosphere.

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By looking at the light spectrum,

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we can see if that planet has water,

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we can see if it has chlorophyll.

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Astrobiologists have identified
many spectra we can look for

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representing all the different types

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of chemical basis for life,
not just carbon-based like us,

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but all the other ways
elements might bond together

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to form living matter.

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Now even with James Webb,

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our best space telescopes
almost have the ability,

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but not quite.

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But we're very close and
our next generation telescopes

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will for sure, within a few decades.

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This century, we will almost certainly

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identify exoplanets that
have life of some kind.

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So considering how many civilizations

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are probably out there,

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some of them must also
know these same things

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and some of them have also
been looking at exoplanets.

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Think of what Earth must look like to them.

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71% water on its surface
and all the chemical signatures

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of life in its atmosphere.

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Carbon is the most
interactive element there is

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and organic compounds are
everywhere in our spectrum.

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Earth is an alien
astrobiologist's dream planet.

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We are as enticing as any
exoplanet could possibly be.

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- We are absolutely a planet that screams,

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"There is intelligent life
here," not just life in general,

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but life that is contributing
to its environment

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in a technological way.

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- Considering the laws of large numbers,

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it's highly probable that someone,

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maybe tens or hundreds
or thousands of them,

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have already found
Earth's incredible spectrum.

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Someone out there
probably knows we are here.

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They know a few things about us.

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That is an amazing,
astounding, mind blowing thought,

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and it's very exciting for those of us

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who hope that the children of Earth

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will one day meet our neighbors.

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So as we talk about this subject,

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let's keep it in context
that there's a good chance

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there are alien
civilizations interested in us

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and the scientific basis for that is real.

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They'd probably love to visit us

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just as much as we'd love to visit them.

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Now, all that is wonderful and amazing,

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but it's also where we
bump into our first problem.

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- The reason that, as astronomers,

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we believe that life is so
abundant in the universe

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is because of the vastness.

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It's kind of a numbers game.

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But that vastness is the same reason

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that we don't believe that that life

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will ever get here to us on Earth.

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- They can't get here.

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Remember, we're trying to stick to reality,

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not the Star Trek universe.

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That means asking
if it's possible to travel

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faster than light; because civilizations

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are going to be very, very far away.

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- So as scientists, we are bound

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by what we can test and observe.

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And what we observe
is that nothing can travel

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the speed of light except for light itself.

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It would take an infinite amount of energy

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to accelerate anything with any mass at all

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to the speed of light.

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- So faster than light
travel is not possible

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because of the part of
physics called relativity.

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And in relativity, the faster you move,

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the heavier you get
and the shorter you get.

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And so as you approach the speed of light,

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you become infinitely
massive and infinitely flat.

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- I hear terms like relativity,

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like Einstein and laws of physics.

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Are these just ideas that
human scientists made up?

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- So you may naively
think that the laws of physics

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are something that we
came up with as humans,

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but these are not legislative laws.

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These are really observations
that we have verified

260
00:13:38,118 --> 00:13:40,186
time and time and time again to the point

261
00:13:40,253 --> 00:13:43,690
that we really consider
them unbreakable laws.

262
00:13:43,757 --> 00:13:46,292
- Is it possible that some
aliens might come to us

263
00:13:46,359 --> 00:13:48,028
from a different part of the universe

264
00:13:48,094 --> 00:13:51,164
that might have different laws of physics?

265
00:13:51,231 --> 00:13:52,832
- No, it is not possible.

266
00:13:52,899 --> 00:13:55,101
The laws of physics are
the same everywhere.

267
00:13:56,269 --> 00:13:57,170
- How do you know?

268
00:13:58,038 --> 00:14:00,907
- So we actually can use the
James Webb space telescope

269
00:14:00,974 --> 00:14:03,910
to look back in time because
the farther away something is,

270
00:14:03,977 --> 00:14:07,347
the longer light has been traveling to us.

271
00:14:07,414 --> 00:14:08,982
And so when we look back in time,

272
00:14:09,049 --> 00:14:12,552
we can see something called
the cosmic microwave background.

273
00:14:12,619 --> 00:14:15,588
Now this is the leftover
light from the Big Bang

274
00:14:15,655 --> 00:14:18,091
and this light dims like a dimmer switch

275
00:14:18,158 --> 00:14:20,694
and we've been able to use
the laws of physics to say,

276
00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,262
"OK, it should have been this bright

277
00:14:22,328 --> 00:14:24,531
at this point in time,
and now it's this bright

278
00:14:24,597 --> 00:14:25,665
at this point in time."

279
00:14:25,732 --> 00:14:27,267
And those line up perfectly.

280
00:14:27,334 --> 00:14:31,438
So we know that in
different parts of the universe

281
00:14:31,504 --> 00:14:34,507
that we can see billions and
billions of light years away,

282
00:14:34,574 --> 00:14:37,677
those laws of physics are exactly the same

283
00:14:37,744 --> 00:14:39,612
as the laws of physics here on Earth.

284
00:14:39,679 --> 00:14:43,650
- OK, so if the laws are
the same everywhere now,

285
00:14:43,717 --> 00:14:46,152
have they always been the same?

286
00:14:46,219 --> 00:14:48,321
- By looking at
gravitational lensing effects,

287
00:14:48,388 --> 00:14:51,124
we've been able to determine that gravity

288
00:14:51,191 --> 00:14:54,627
behaves the same today
as it did 5 billion years ago

289
00:14:54,694 --> 00:14:56,963
and 5 billion light years away.

290
00:14:57,030 --> 00:15:00,533
- The entire universe
obeys the laws of physics

291
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:01,501
as we know it.

292
00:15:01,568 --> 00:15:03,236
We can look way back in the universe

293
00:15:03,303 --> 00:15:06,539
and compare our observations
to some of the models

294
00:15:06,606 --> 00:15:09,676
that we create based on the
laws of physics we know now

295
00:15:09,743 --> 00:15:11,478
and we can see that these two things match.

296
00:15:11,544 --> 00:15:14,981
So these laws of physics have
been the same laws of physics

297
00:15:15,048 --> 00:15:17,484
ever since the beginning
as far as we can look back.

298
00:15:17,550 --> 00:15:19,119
- [Brian] So that's disappointing.

299
00:15:19,185 --> 00:15:22,722
These barriers to faster than
light travel are the same here

300
00:15:22,789 --> 00:15:24,591
as they are for a civilization

301
00:15:24,657 --> 00:15:26,292
on the other side of the universe.

302
00:15:26,359 --> 00:15:28,895
And those problems we face today

303
00:15:28,962 --> 00:15:31,931
were the same for
civilizations a billion years ago.

304
00:15:31,998 --> 00:15:35,268
But the problems don't even end there.

305
00:15:39,005 --> 00:15:41,608
I call this the Christmas tree problem,

306
00:15:41,675 --> 00:15:44,210
and it has to do with the
time element of communicating

307
00:15:44,277 --> 00:15:45,512
with our neighbors.

308
00:15:45,578 --> 00:15:48,314
Do you think there
might be a radio greeting

309
00:15:48,381 --> 00:15:51,584
from some alien
civilization winging its way

310
00:15:51,651 --> 00:15:53,453
through space toward us right now?

311
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,890
- So there may be greetings
from alien civilizations

312
00:15:56,956 --> 00:15:59,592
flying all over the place in the universe.

313
00:15:59,659 --> 00:16:01,594
The problem is that you have to look

314
00:16:01,661 --> 00:16:04,764
at the exact right place
at the exact right time

315
00:16:04,831 --> 00:16:05,732
to receive it.

316
00:16:05,799 --> 00:16:09,836
- It turns out time is just as
big a problem as distance.

317
00:16:09,903 --> 00:16:13,640
Imagine a Christmas tree
with strings of blinking lights.

318
00:16:13,707 --> 00:16:16,643
Imagine that tree is the
universe and each light

319
00:16:16,710 --> 00:16:19,245
during that brief moment
when it's illuminated

320
00:16:19,312 --> 00:16:22,248
is the duration of a
technological civilization,

321
00:16:22,315 --> 00:16:24,951
from the moment they
first develop the capability

322
00:16:25,018 --> 00:16:26,953
to interact with other civilizations

323
00:16:27,020 --> 00:16:29,389
to the moment they meet their end,

324
00:16:29,456 --> 00:16:31,224
they get hit with a gamma ray burst

325
00:16:31,291 --> 00:16:33,360
or a planet killer asteroid

326
00:16:33,426 --> 00:16:35,962
or a war or a pandemic or whatever.

327
00:16:36,029 --> 00:16:39,466
Maybe they exist as a
technological civilization

328
00:16:39,532 --> 00:16:42,936
for a million years or a hundred years,

329
00:16:43,003 --> 00:16:46,339
and they're sprinkled
everywhere throughout the cosmos,

330
00:16:46,406 --> 00:16:50,276
an unknowable number of such civilizations.

331
00:16:50,343 --> 00:16:53,413
But they don't all exist at the same time.

332
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,515
The chances of two Christmas tree lights

333
00:16:55,582 --> 00:16:57,083
that are really close together

334
00:16:57,150 --> 00:17:00,120
being on at the same time is small.

335
00:17:00,186 --> 00:17:03,223
Even if we developed
space travel at very close

336
00:17:03,289 --> 00:17:04,457
to the speed of light,

337
00:17:04,524 --> 00:17:07,894
for two civilizations to
have physical contact

338
00:17:07,961 --> 00:17:10,196
they'd have to be extremely close together

339
00:17:10,263 --> 00:17:13,166
and at the same time.

340
00:17:13,233 --> 00:17:15,802
So it's possible, and it probably happens,

341
00:17:15,869 --> 00:17:19,239
it's probably happening
some-where in the universe right now.

342
00:17:19,305 --> 00:17:23,143
But the Christmas tree
problem makes it much less likely

343
00:17:23,209 --> 00:17:25,345
that any technological civilization

344
00:17:25,412 --> 00:17:28,348
will ever get to visit a neighbor,

345
00:17:28,882 --> 00:17:31,651
and that's a problem that we hate.

346
00:17:35,055 --> 00:17:37,424
So here's the thing that
almost always comes up

347
00:17:37,490 --> 00:17:39,325
at this point in the conversations.

348
00:17:39,392 --> 00:17:41,628
Aliens are more advanced than us.

349
00:17:41,695 --> 00:17:43,997
They've probably figured
out the laws of physics

350
00:17:44,064 --> 00:17:45,231
better than we have.

351
00:17:45,298 --> 00:17:48,468
So they're not limited by time or distance.

352
00:17:48,535 --> 00:17:51,638
They're not bound by special relativity.

353
00:17:51,705 --> 00:17:53,506
By all we poor humans know,

354
00:17:53,573 --> 00:17:56,710
special relativity is among
the most thoroughly tested

355
00:17:56,776 --> 00:17:59,646
and proven of all the laws of physics.

356
00:17:59,713 --> 00:18:02,749
But hey, maybe the
aliens are smarter than us.

357
00:18:02,816 --> 00:18:04,851
Aliens, if they're smarter than us,

358
00:18:04,918 --> 00:18:07,220
can't they get around those laws

359
00:18:07,287 --> 00:18:10,090
and break the laws of physics?

360
00:18:10,156 --> 00:18:12,125
- You cannot break the laws of physics.

361
00:18:12,192 --> 00:18:15,729
- OK, it's nice to just declare
that like a proclamation,

362
00:18:15,795 --> 00:18:19,032
but why can't the aliens know more than us?

363
00:18:19,099 --> 00:18:22,669
- So any sufficiently
intelligent alien civilization

364
00:18:22,736 --> 00:18:24,371
is going to invent math.

365
00:18:24,437 --> 00:18:27,307
And their math is going to
tell them the exact same thing

366
00:18:27,374 --> 00:18:29,042
that our math tells us,

367
00:18:29,109 --> 00:18:31,244
and these are just the laws of physics.

368
00:18:31,311 --> 00:18:34,114
- OK, let's say that we've
got the mathematics wrong

369
00:18:34,180 --> 00:18:37,217
and that faster than
light travel is possible.

370
00:18:37,283 --> 00:18:40,020
Now, obviously, not all
alien civilizations out there

371
00:18:40,086 --> 00:18:42,055
would figure it out, but remember,

372
00:18:42,122 --> 00:18:44,624
there might be a huge
number of them out there.

373
00:18:44,691 --> 00:18:46,693
Enough of them would get it.

374
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,597
If distance doesn't matter
anymore, the problems go away.

375
00:18:50,663 --> 00:18:53,833
Advanced aliens without
distance constraints

376
00:18:53,900 --> 00:18:56,503
would be visiting civilizations everywhere.

377
00:18:56,569 --> 00:18:58,972
Maybe some of them
would want to remain hidden

378
00:18:59,039 --> 00:19:02,842
or just examine us, but
surely not all of them,

379
00:19:02,909 --> 00:19:04,878
at least some of them would have jumped

380
00:19:04,944 --> 00:19:08,214
onto the White House lawn
to say, "Hey, here we are."

381
00:19:08,281 --> 00:19:10,016
And by the same logic,

382
00:19:10,083 --> 00:19:14,554
at least some of them might
be hostile and destructive.

383
00:19:14,621 --> 00:19:17,090
But look, we're here.

384
00:19:17,157 --> 00:19:18,892
Nobody has destroyed us

385
00:19:18,958 --> 00:19:22,162
and nobody has appeared
on the White House lawn.

386
00:19:22,228 --> 00:19:24,531
So work it backwards. If there are no

387
00:19:24,597 --> 00:19:28,868
hostile or sociable
long distance travelers,

388
00:19:28,935 --> 00:19:31,271
that means there probably aren't any

389
00:19:31,338 --> 00:19:33,306
long distance travelers.

390
00:19:33,373 --> 00:19:36,443
Our lack of obvious
visitors is really the best

391
00:19:36,509 --> 00:19:40,180
empirical evidence that we
have that nobody anywhere

392
00:19:40,246 --> 00:19:42,982
has solved both the Christmas tree problem

393
00:19:43,049 --> 00:19:45,618
and the problem of
faster than light travel.

394
00:19:45,685 --> 00:19:47,787
Remember we did point out earlier,

395
00:19:47,854 --> 00:19:51,391
special relativity is among
the most thoroughly tested

396
00:19:51,458 --> 00:19:55,161
and proven of all the laws of physics.

397
00:19:55,228 --> 00:19:57,263
Also, when we speculate that aliens

398
00:19:57,330 --> 00:20:00,800
might not be bound by the
same laws of physics we are,

399
00:20:00,867 --> 00:20:02,736
what are we really saying?

400
00:20:02,802 --> 00:20:05,872
We're saying they can do anything like gods

401
00:20:05,939 --> 00:20:07,874
or genies or leprechauns.

402
00:20:07,941 --> 00:20:10,944
- So the aliens have to
abide by the same laws

403
00:20:11,011 --> 00:20:13,580
of physics that we do, they aren't magic.

404
00:20:13,646 --> 00:20:14,547
They're not Harry Potter.

405
00:20:14,614 --> 00:20:16,649
They just can't do whatever they want.

406
00:20:16,716 --> 00:20:19,419
- I think it's more likely
that advanced aliens

407
00:20:19,486 --> 00:20:22,522
understand and work
with the laws of physics

408
00:20:22,589 --> 00:20:24,090
the same as we do.

409
00:20:24,157 --> 00:20:27,227
But again, I'm now just
speculating outside of science.

410
00:20:27,293 --> 00:20:29,963
If we want to come up with reliable answers

411
00:20:30,030 --> 00:20:32,332
to these big questions we're asking,

412
00:20:32,399 --> 00:20:35,802
we need to stick to
reality and not speculate

413
00:20:35,869 --> 00:20:39,739
about what we think gods and
genies and leprechauns could do.

414
00:20:39,806 --> 00:20:41,675
Or Harry Potter.

415
00:20:41,741 --> 00:20:45,278
In logic, we call that a special pleading.

416
00:20:45,345 --> 00:20:46,112
We can't just say,

417
00:20:46,179 --> 00:20:48,548
"Oh, the aliens don't have any limitations.

418
00:20:48,615 --> 00:20:51,718
Us poor dumb humans are
just not able to comprehend

419
00:20:51,785 --> 00:20:53,386
their superiority."

420
00:20:53,453 --> 00:20:56,723
Well, that's not science,
that's wishful thinking.

421
00:20:56,790 --> 00:20:58,725
It's convincing yourself something is true

422
00:20:58,792 --> 00:21:01,327
because you want it to be true.

423
00:21:01,394 --> 00:21:03,296
I want it to be true too

424
00:21:03,363 --> 00:21:06,566
but I also want to understand what's real.

425
00:21:09,703 --> 00:21:12,706
The way we do that is to
establish a very high bar

426
00:21:12,772 --> 00:21:15,141
for the quality of evidence
that we're going to accept.

427
00:21:15,208 --> 00:21:19,045
If we present bad evidence,
it weakens our case;

428
00:21:19,112 --> 00:21:21,981
so we will only accept good evidence.

429
00:21:22,048 --> 00:21:23,883
You might think this video

430
00:21:23,950 --> 00:21:27,354
looks like excellent
quality evidence, but it's not.

431
00:21:27,420 --> 00:21:28,455
It's terrible.

432
00:21:28,521 --> 00:21:32,025
I know that, because I made it
myself using an app on my phone

433
00:21:32,092 --> 00:21:34,794
to add a flying saucer to my video.

434
00:21:34,861 --> 00:21:37,497
But you should have known
it was terrible evidence too

435
00:21:37,564 --> 00:21:39,866
because all videos or pictures

436
00:21:39,933 --> 00:21:43,937
are what we call anecdotal evidence.

437
00:21:44,004 --> 00:21:45,105
That refers to anything

438
00:21:45,171 --> 00:21:47,807
that can't be directly studied or tested.

439
00:21:47,874 --> 00:21:50,944
I can directly study and test this rock

440
00:21:51,011 --> 00:21:52,679
because I'm holding it,

441
00:21:52,746 --> 00:21:55,782
but you can't because you're
just watching it on a video.

442
00:21:55,849 --> 00:21:57,650
As far as you are able to prove

443
00:21:57,717 --> 00:22:01,254
it might be nothing
more than a special effect.

444
00:22:01,321 --> 00:22:04,791
Pictures or videos will
never meet that high bar

445
00:22:04,858 --> 00:22:06,760
of evidence that we need.

446
00:22:06,826 --> 00:22:10,530
Millions of people are better
than me at faking videos.

447
00:22:10,597 --> 00:22:12,165
And more than half a century ago,

448
00:22:12,232 --> 00:22:14,367
hoaxers were throwing hubcaps in the air

449
00:22:14,434 --> 00:22:17,137
and absolutely persuading many

450
00:22:17,203 --> 00:22:20,774
that they took authentic
photos of a flying saucer.

451
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,043
People accepted bad evidence

452
00:22:23,109 --> 00:22:26,446
and the result was that they were wrong.

453
00:22:27,113 --> 00:22:31,284
Verbal stories or stories
presented on UFO TV programs

454
00:22:31,351 --> 00:22:35,722
are also completely anecdotal
and very untrustworthy.

455
00:22:35,789 --> 00:22:37,590
They get more and more exaggerated

456
00:22:37,657 --> 00:22:39,659
every time they're retold.

457
00:22:39,726 --> 00:22:41,528
Even though the people on these shows

458
00:22:41,594 --> 00:22:43,763
often seem trustworthy,

459
00:22:43,830 --> 00:22:46,966
we have to force ourselves
to not simply believe

460
00:22:47,033 --> 00:22:48,568
everything on television.

461
00:22:48,635 --> 00:22:52,072
We have to force ourselves
to be open to information

462
00:22:52,138 --> 00:22:54,474
that's not what we want to hear.

463
00:22:54,541 --> 00:22:58,044
This is how we improve our knowledge.

464
00:22:58,111 --> 00:23:00,480
Another way we scrutinize
evidence to make sure

465
00:23:00,547 --> 00:23:05,318
it meets our high bar is
to try to falsify our theories.

466
00:23:05,385 --> 00:23:08,655
What does the cancer
researcher want most of all?

467
00:23:08,722 --> 00:23:11,624
She wants to find a cure
for the particular cancer

468
00:23:11,691 --> 00:23:12,892
she's working on.

469
00:23:12,959 --> 00:23:15,328
So if she gets the
slightest positive result,

470
00:23:15,395 --> 00:23:17,964
the cancer responded slightly better

471
00:23:18,031 --> 00:23:21,201
to this one candidate
drug than to the others,

472
00:23:21,267 --> 00:23:25,205
she knows the most premature
and foolhardy thing she can do

473
00:23:25,271 --> 00:23:26,706
is to immediately declare,

474
00:23:26,773 --> 00:23:27,941
"Yay, I've found it.

475
00:23:28,008 --> 00:23:30,110
This cancer has been cured."

476
00:23:30,176 --> 00:23:33,246
Instead, she has to search for any possible

477
00:23:33,313 --> 00:23:36,850
alternate explanation
for that positive result

478
00:23:36,916 --> 00:23:38,752
so she can eliminate it.

479
00:23:38,818 --> 00:23:40,453
Maybe it was caused by

480
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,390
residue from cleaning her test equipment.

481
00:23:43,456 --> 00:23:46,359
The most important step she takes

482
00:23:46,426 --> 00:23:50,697
is to find ways to
falsify any positive result.

483
00:23:50,764 --> 00:23:52,832
That's how she makes sure she's left

484
00:23:52,899 --> 00:23:57,070
with only the best evidence
that passes all scrutiny.

485
00:23:58,304 --> 00:24:02,776
So if the UFO researcher
wants to convincingly show

486
00:24:02,842 --> 00:24:05,045
that aliens are visiting us,

487
00:24:05,111 --> 00:24:08,848
he has to apply that same extreme scrutiny

488
00:24:08,915 --> 00:24:11,851
to his theory to find every possible way

489
00:24:11,918 --> 00:24:15,488
that something else might
account for his evidence.

490
00:24:15,555 --> 00:24:18,024
The video that looks like
a craft making movements

491
00:24:18,091 --> 00:24:19,793
that airplanes can't,

492
00:24:19,859 --> 00:24:22,028
might just be an optical illusion

493
00:24:22,095 --> 00:24:23,763
from the way the camera's moving.

494
00:24:23,830 --> 00:24:27,167
He has to absolutely
eliminate that possibility

495
00:24:27,233 --> 00:24:29,703
and then he has to work just as hard

496
00:24:29,769 --> 00:24:33,606
to find the next thing that
might explain the video.

497
00:24:33,673 --> 00:24:37,744
So falsify, eliminate
every other possibility

498
00:24:37,811 --> 00:24:39,546
if we want to make a strong case,

499
00:24:39,612 --> 00:24:41,614
we have to make sure it stands up

500
00:24:41,681 --> 00:24:44,651
to the scrutiny of falsification.

501
00:24:48,254 --> 00:24:50,557
So to do that, let's start by looking

502
00:24:50,623 --> 00:24:54,861
at the whole history of UFOs
that were eventually identified

503
00:24:54,928 --> 00:24:57,697
and see what kinds of things
have fooled eyewitnesses

504
00:24:57,764 --> 00:24:59,132
in the past.

505
00:24:59,199 --> 00:25:01,935
Now, luckily we have lots of data for this.

506
00:25:02,002 --> 00:25:05,872
A number of authors have
compiled great big data sets,

507
00:25:05,939 --> 00:25:08,008
and even Wikipedia has an article

508
00:25:08,074 --> 00:25:11,244
on the most common
explanations for UFO sightings

509
00:25:11,311 --> 00:25:14,080
that were ultimately explained.

510
00:25:14,147 --> 00:25:18,318
The #1 most common
cause of solved UFO cases

511
00:25:18,385 --> 00:25:22,122
is misidentification of celestial objects,

512
00:25:22,188 --> 00:25:25,792
basically planets and
stars, and mostly Venus,

513
00:25:25,859 --> 00:25:30,363
but also satellites,
meteors, and orbital debris.

514
00:25:30,430 --> 00:25:34,200
Every time SpaceX launches
a train of Starlink satellites,

515
00:25:34,267 --> 00:25:37,837
which appear in the sky
as a giant long line of lights,

516
00:25:37,904 --> 00:25:39,939
I get a ton of messages
from people asking me,

517
00:25:40,006 --> 00:25:43,510
"Whoa, what the heck
was this?" Celestial objects

518
00:25:43,576 --> 00:25:46,913
fool experienced sky watchers every day;

519
00:25:46,980 --> 00:25:49,916
so they're the most important
phenomenon we have to try

520
00:25:49,983 --> 00:25:53,520
and find a match for
in order to rule it out.

521
00:25:53,586 --> 00:25:55,755
- With all of the artificial satellites

522
00:25:55,822 --> 00:25:58,191
that are in orbit around the Earth,

523
00:25:58,258 --> 00:26:01,461
it wouldn't be hard to imagine
a pilot seeing something

524
00:26:01,528 --> 00:26:04,698
and not knowing exactly
what it was, and tagging it

525
00:26:04,764 --> 00:26:07,000
as an unidentified flying object,

526
00:26:07,067 --> 00:26:08,902
which for them it would be.

527
00:26:08,968 --> 00:26:10,704
- And here's an air traffic controller.

528
00:26:10,770 --> 00:26:11,938
You'll meet him soon.

529
00:26:12,005 --> 00:26:14,474
- We've had pilots
report a line of aircrafts

530
00:26:14,541 --> 00:26:18,778
a hundred miles across,
30 aircraft, what is it?

531
00:26:18,845 --> 00:26:20,714
- And they're seeing a Starlink train?

532
00:26:20,780 --> 00:26:21,915
- They're seeing, yes.

533
00:26:21,981 --> 00:26:25,085
- The second most common
cause of solved UFO cases

534
00:26:25,151 --> 00:26:28,722
is airborne clutter,
mostly weather balloons,

535
00:26:28,788 --> 00:26:32,759
but also birds, party balloons,
and conventional aircraft

536
00:26:32,826 --> 00:26:37,464
including planes, blimps,
especially advertising blimps,

537
00:26:37,530 --> 00:26:39,799
drones, and helicopters.

538
00:26:39,866 --> 00:26:44,471
All of these fool serious
UFO spotters every day.

539
00:26:44,537 --> 00:26:47,574
And so we also have to try
and match these to our sighting

540
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,777
to eliminate them as the explanation.

541
00:26:50,844 --> 00:26:53,346
Airborne clutter also includes hoaxes,

542
00:26:53,413 --> 00:26:55,882
like knuckleheads launching
something on purpose

543
00:26:55,949 --> 00:26:57,183
to trick people.

544
00:26:57,250 --> 00:27:00,887
But hoaxing is such a minuscule
part of the UFO phenomenon

545
00:27:00,954 --> 00:27:03,990
that we're really not even
going to spend any time on it.

546
00:27:04,057 --> 00:27:07,160
Another common cause of solved UFO cases

547
00:27:07,227 --> 00:27:11,831
is misidentification of lights
or objects on the ground.

548
00:27:11,898 --> 00:27:15,502
Horizons can disappear
in a number of atmospheric

549
00:27:15,568 --> 00:27:16,970
and lighting conditions,

550
00:27:17,037 --> 00:27:20,040
and lights and other objects on the ground

551
00:27:20,106 --> 00:27:22,742
can often appear to be in the air.

552
00:27:22,809 --> 00:27:25,779
Sometimes it takes some
real outside the box thinking

553
00:27:25,845 --> 00:27:28,682
to discover that your UFO
was actually something

554
00:27:28,748 --> 00:27:29,749
on the ground.

555
00:27:29,816 --> 00:27:34,554
But again, this fools
smart people every day.

556
00:27:35,255 --> 00:27:37,957
The last potential ID for solved UFOs

557
00:27:38,024 --> 00:27:40,427
is perhaps the most
important for our purposes

558
00:27:40,493 --> 00:27:43,830
and that's an extraordinary craft.

559
00:27:43,897 --> 00:27:45,298
By an extraordinary craft,

560
00:27:45,365 --> 00:27:48,635
I mean an actual physical
vehicle of some kind

561
00:27:48,702 --> 00:27:52,305
that is not an airplane or
any other previously known

562
00:27:52,372 --> 00:27:54,007
and familiar type.

563
00:27:54,074 --> 00:27:57,677
An extraordinary craft is
one that has capabilities

564
00:27:57,744 --> 00:28:00,914
or characteristics never before seen.

565
00:28:00,980 --> 00:28:04,351
If we had an actual alien spaceship,

566
00:28:04,417 --> 00:28:07,153
that would be an extraordinary craft.

567
00:28:07,220 --> 00:28:09,289
If we had some new kind of vehicle with

568
00:28:09,356 --> 00:28:12,759
flight characteristics that
are apparently impossible,

569
00:28:12,826 --> 00:28:16,196
maybe Chinese, maybe
Russian, maybe American,

570
00:28:16,262 --> 00:28:19,366
but truly paradigm upending,

571
00:28:19,432 --> 00:28:21,968
that would be an extraordinary craft.

572
00:28:22,902 --> 00:28:25,138
The reason I say this is the most important

573
00:28:25,205 --> 00:28:30,210
for our purposes is that in
the entire history of UFOlogy,

574
00:28:30,276 --> 00:28:33,213
in not one single case ever

575
00:28:33,279 --> 00:28:36,349
has an extraordinary craft been found

576
00:28:36,416 --> 00:28:38,818
to be the explanation for a UFO.

577
00:28:38,885 --> 00:28:41,521
Not once. Ever.

578
00:28:41,588 --> 00:28:45,091
Not a single extraordinary
craft has ever been found,

579
00:28:45,158 --> 00:28:48,228
at least not that meets our
high standard of evidence,

580
00:28:48,294 --> 00:28:50,897
which means rejecting
the many anecdotal stories

581
00:28:50,964 --> 00:28:53,233
of captured alien debris.

582
00:28:53,299 --> 00:28:54,834
So if we go through and eliminate

583
00:28:54,901 --> 00:28:57,203
all the more likely possibilities:

584
00:28:57,270 --> 00:28:59,406
celestial objects, airborne clutter,

585
00:28:59,472 --> 00:29:00,740
objects on the ground,

586
00:29:00,807 --> 00:29:04,377
conventional aircraft,
and optical illusions,

587
00:29:04,444 --> 00:29:07,213
and if we believe an extraordinary craft

588
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,449
must be responsible for the sighting,

589
00:29:09,516 --> 00:29:11,851
this is where we become the ones

590
00:29:11,918 --> 00:29:14,154
making the extraordinary claim,

591
00:29:14,220 --> 00:29:18,158
and where we must present
extraordinary evidence.

592
00:29:18,224 --> 00:29:22,328
To prove something
that's truly unprecedented,

593
00:29:22,395 --> 00:29:26,399
our standard of evidence must be crazy high

594
00:29:26,466 --> 00:29:28,134
and that's why it's so important

595
00:29:28,201 --> 00:29:30,537
to go through the falsification process.

596
00:29:34,407 --> 00:29:36,976
So now let's look at the evidence we have

597
00:29:37,043 --> 00:29:39,412
through this filter of setting the bar high

598
00:29:39,479 --> 00:29:42,716
and let's falsify everything we can.

599
00:29:42,782 --> 00:29:45,385
I want to start with a couple
of really bad examples,

600
00:29:45,452 --> 00:29:47,854
just to illustrate how easy it is

601
00:29:47,921 --> 00:29:50,557
for a really amazing story to spread

602
00:29:50,623 --> 00:29:53,860
when nobody subjects it to any scrutiny.

603
00:29:53,927 --> 00:29:55,729
Where do we find these?

604
00:29:55,795 --> 00:29:57,397
On television, of course.

605
00:29:57,464 --> 00:30:00,867
People forget that TV
shows are entertainment.

606
00:30:00,934 --> 00:30:04,771
Nobody at the network
cares how accurate it is.

607
00:30:04,838 --> 00:30:06,406
They only care that you watch.

608
00:30:06,473 --> 00:30:08,975
And so they let the stories get exaggerated

609
00:30:09,042 --> 00:30:10,643
and completely distorted.

610
00:30:14,047 --> 00:30:17,984
One of these is the Rendlesham
Forest case from 1980.

611
00:30:18,051 --> 00:30:20,487
At a US Air Force base inside England,

612
00:30:20,553 --> 00:30:22,922
airmen on duty saw some bright lights

613
00:30:22,989 --> 00:30:26,026
flashing through the
trees of Rendlesham Forest

614
00:30:26,092 --> 00:30:28,061
just outside the base perimeter.

615
00:30:28,128 --> 00:30:31,464
They went to investigate
and found what they described

616
00:30:31,531 --> 00:30:36,536
as a craft of unknown
origin landed inside the forest.

617
00:30:37,070 --> 00:30:39,406
They approached it and
one of the men studied

618
00:30:39,472 --> 00:30:42,208
and touched it for 45 minutes,

619
00:30:42,275 --> 00:30:44,844
logging the details in a notebook.

620
00:30:44,911 --> 00:30:48,014
But they were ordered never
to discuss what happened.

621
00:30:48,081 --> 00:30:50,884
And so it's been called one
of the great UFO coverups

622
00:30:50,950 --> 00:30:52,752
in history.

623
00:30:52,819 --> 00:30:56,289
Something that nearly always
happens with stories like this

624
00:30:56,356 --> 00:30:58,858
that get told and retold on TV shows

625
00:30:58,925 --> 00:31:02,062
is that each network
has to outdo the last one.

626
00:31:02,128 --> 00:31:06,466
And so the eyewitnesses' stories
get magnified and expanded

627
00:31:06,533 --> 00:31:09,069
every time another network tells it.

628
00:31:09,135 --> 00:31:12,038
When we go back to the
original documentation,

629
00:31:12,105 --> 00:31:14,708
the actual records from that night,

630
00:31:14,774 --> 00:31:17,877
they tell a very different story.

631
00:31:17,944 --> 00:31:20,747
Now, the men did indeed
follow a flashing light

632
00:31:20,814 --> 00:31:23,850
through the trees, and
suspecting that there might

633
00:31:23,917 --> 00:31:26,252
have been a crash of
some kind in the forest,

634
00:31:26,319 --> 00:31:28,755
they called the local constables, who,

635
00:31:28,822 --> 00:31:30,990
being familiar with the area,

636
00:31:31,057 --> 00:31:33,059
found the men were seeing nothing more

637
00:31:33,126 --> 00:31:36,629
than the flashing light
of Orfordness Lighthouse

638
00:31:36,696 --> 00:31:38,465
about six miles away

639
00:31:38,531 --> 00:31:41,368
and they did not investigate further.

640
00:31:41,434 --> 00:31:43,636
A colonel from the base accompanied the men

641
00:31:43,703 --> 00:31:47,207
with an audio recorder
and recorded the following:

642
00:32:08,528 --> 00:32:11,598
- [Brian] Now every lighthouse
has its own unique interval

643
00:32:11,664 --> 00:32:13,633
for how often it flashes.

644
00:32:13,700 --> 00:32:17,037
That way mariners can identify
which lighthouse they're seeing.

645
00:32:17,103 --> 00:32:19,005
The Orfordness Lighthouse,

646
00:32:19,072 --> 00:32:20,974
which is sadly gone now,

647
00:32:21,041 --> 00:32:25,311
flashed at an interval
of exactly five seconds.

648
00:32:25,378 --> 00:32:27,247
So let's hear that audio again,

649
00:32:27,313 --> 00:32:31,117
but with a beep added every five seconds.

650
00:32:33,353 --> 00:32:34,354
[beep]

651
00:32:38,391 --> 00:32:39,392
[beep]

652
00:32:43,396 --> 00:32:44,397
[beep]

653
00:32:46,533 --> 00:32:48,535
- [Brian] What about the guy
who said he examined the craft

654
00:32:48,601 --> 00:32:51,404
in the forest writing down
the details in his notebook?

655
00:32:51,471 --> 00:32:55,709
That didn't become a
part of the story until 1996,

656
00:32:55,775 --> 00:32:58,712
16 years after it happened.

657
00:32:58,778 --> 00:33:02,916
He'd given other interviews on
TV shows as recently as 1994

658
00:33:02,982 --> 00:33:06,186
and had never said
anything about seeing a craft.

659
00:33:06,252 --> 00:33:09,322
And it wasn't until another TV show in 2003

660
00:33:09,389 --> 00:33:11,891
that he first mentioned having a notebook.

661
00:33:11,958 --> 00:33:14,894
Back in 1980 when this happened,

662
00:33:14,961 --> 00:33:17,197
he had told the Air Force interviewer

663
00:33:17,263 --> 00:33:19,032
that they followed the flashing light

664
00:33:19,099 --> 00:33:21,201
but couldn't get very close to it.

665
00:33:21,267 --> 00:33:22,902
And that's all.

666
00:33:23,303 --> 00:33:26,973
Then every time a new TV
show came out about this story,

667
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:28,942
it got bigger and bigger,

668
00:33:29,009 --> 00:33:32,545
and more story elements were invented.

669
00:33:32,612 --> 00:33:35,281
Go back to the original accounts

670
00:33:35,348 --> 00:33:38,351
and it's documented
that nothing interesting

671
00:33:38,418 --> 00:33:40,186
happened at all.

672
00:33:40,253 --> 00:33:42,455
There's no evidence that any of the events

673
00:33:42,522 --> 00:33:45,825
added by the TV shows ever happened.

674
00:33:45,892 --> 00:33:49,029
So Rendlesham Forest does not satisfy

675
00:33:49,095 --> 00:33:51,598
our standard of evidence.

676
00:33:55,101 --> 00:33:57,637
There's another story that
highlights the importance

677
00:33:57,704 --> 00:34:00,173
of going back to original accounts.

678
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:04,144
This one comes from Zimbabwe in 1994.

679
00:34:04,210 --> 00:34:06,246
At a rural school in Africa,

680
00:34:06,312 --> 00:34:09,949
62 children reported that
a flying saucer came down

681
00:34:10,016 --> 00:34:13,153
and landed in a field just
outside their playground,

682
00:34:13,219 --> 00:34:15,989
and some small men in black came out

683
00:34:16,056 --> 00:34:18,491
and gave them all a telepathic message

684
00:34:18,558 --> 00:34:21,027
that they should take
better care of the Earth.

685
00:34:21,094 --> 00:34:23,763
The 62 children drew pictures of the craft

686
00:34:23,830 --> 00:34:25,832
and told the story of what happened.

687
00:34:25,899 --> 00:34:28,802
Their stories and pictures
were all consistent.

688
00:34:28,868 --> 00:34:32,038
Even a prominent Harvard
professor interviewed them

689
00:34:32,105 --> 00:34:36,209
and reported their story
was absolutely authentic.

690
00:34:36,276 --> 00:34:39,979
Moreover, these were said to
have been poor African children

691
00:34:40,046 --> 00:34:43,516
who would've had no prior
exposure to science fiction

692
00:34:43,583 --> 00:34:47,153
or pop culture, and wouldn't
even have known about UFOs

693
00:34:47,220 --> 00:34:48,922
or flying saucers.

694
00:34:48,988 --> 00:34:52,192
It's said to be one of the
most compelling cases

695
00:34:52,258 --> 00:34:55,061
of proof of alien visitation.

696
00:34:56,162 --> 00:34:59,833
The problem here is that we
don't have any original accounts

697
00:34:59,899 --> 00:35:02,736
of what might have
happened there, if anything.

698
00:35:02,802 --> 00:35:05,605
First of all, these were
not poor African children

699
00:35:05,672 --> 00:35:07,073
from some village.

700
00:35:07,140 --> 00:35:10,844
This school was among the
most expensive private schools

701
00:35:10,910 --> 00:35:15,682
serving Harare, the capital of
Zimbabwe, 15 minutes away.

702
00:35:15,749 --> 00:35:17,183
These were wealthy kids,

703
00:35:17,250 --> 00:35:21,187
mostly South African and
British who had HBO at home

704
00:35:21,254 --> 00:35:23,923
and went to the movies and watched TV.

705
00:35:23,990 --> 00:35:26,426
And what they'd been
watching for the past few days

706
00:35:26,493 --> 00:35:29,696
had been nothing but UFO hype.

707
00:35:29,763 --> 00:35:33,633
A great fireball had broken
up in the night sky over Africa,

708
00:35:33,700 --> 00:35:36,369
which we later learned
had been the re-entry

709
00:35:36,436 --> 00:35:38,238
of the Zenit-2 rocket

710
00:35:38,304 --> 00:35:42,275
from the Russian Cosmos
2290 satellite launch.

711
00:35:42,342 --> 00:35:45,779
The TV and radio stations
were buzzing with calls

712
00:35:45,845 --> 00:35:49,049
for photos and the best UFO stories.

713
00:35:49,115 --> 00:35:53,586
The editor of UFO Afrinews
heard about the children's story

714
00:35:53,653 --> 00:35:55,055
and went to the school.

715
00:35:55,121 --> 00:35:56,589
She placed them into groups

716
00:35:56,656 --> 00:35:59,693
and held group story sharing sessions.

717
00:35:59,759 --> 00:36:01,995
They made and shared
their drawings together.

718
00:36:02,062 --> 00:36:03,997
This is the exact opposite

719
00:36:04,064 --> 00:36:06,533
of how witnesses are
supposed to be interviewed,

720
00:36:06,599 --> 00:36:09,336
the most crucial step of
which is to separate them

721
00:36:09,402 --> 00:36:11,905
completely as early as possible.

722
00:36:11,971 --> 00:36:14,708
Because now, having influenced one another,

723
00:36:14,774 --> 00:36:19,045
the children's stories were
hopelessly cross-contaminated

724
00:36:19,112 --> 00:36:21,781
and so of course the stories were similar.

725
00:36:21,848 --> 00:36:23,783
But the most destructive influencing

726
00:36:23,850 --> 00:36:27,020
came from the Harvard
professor two months later.

727
00:36:27,087 --> 00:36:31,024
This was John Mack, an
author who firmly believed

728
00:36:31,091 --> 00:36:34,928
in alien abduction. He was
actually under investigation

729
00:36:34,994 --> 00:36:36,529
by Harvard at the time

730
00:36:36,596 --> 00:36:39,232
for telling people who
wondered if they'd been abducted

731
00:36:39,299 --> 00:36:43,803
by aliens that that's exactly
what had happened to them.

732
00:36:43,870 --> 00:36:47,407
His whole thing was persuading people

733
00:36:47,474 --> 00:36:49,809
that they'd been visited by aliens,

734
00:36:49,876 --> 00:36:53,079
to the point of breaking
Harvard's ethical standards.

735
00:36:53,146 --> 00:36:56,282
That is not an impartial observer.

736
00:36:57,217 --> 00:37:00,487
Whatever actually happened
at the school on that day

737
00:37:00,553 --> 00:37:03,456
is impossible to know,
because of the sloppy way

738
00:37:03,523 --> 00:37:05,759
the eyewitness accounts were handled.

739
00:37:05,825 --> 00:37:10,096
We do know that 62 children
say they saw something,

740
00:37:10,163 --> 00:37:13,733
but whatever they originally
reported was quickly lost

741
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,169
and the great majority of children present,

742
00:37:16,236 --> 00:37:21,241
some 200 others, reported
seeing nothing at all.

743
00:37:22,942 --> 00:37:26,613
We are looking for
extraordinary hard evidence,

744
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,882
but these two stories offer nothing

745
00:37:28,948 --> 00:37:32,585
but horrible contaminated anecdotes.

746
00:37:32,652 --> 00:37:34,354
Maybe we can find something better

747
00:37:34,421 --> 00:37:37,991
if we look at some of the
official government reports.

748
00:37:41,628 --> 00:37:43,163
Perhaps the most concerning

749
00:37:43,229 --> 00:37:45,265
of all the government UFO accounts

750
00:37:45,331 --> 00:37:47,400
is the story that you may have heard

751
00:37:47,467 --> 00:37:50,470
about UFOs being found to have the ability

752
00:37:50,537 --> 00:37:53,740
to disable United States nuclear missiles.

753
00:37:53,807 --> 00:37:56,910
If anything would warrant
official investigation,

754
00:37:56,976 --> 00:37:58,745
it would be that, right?

755
00:37:58,812 --> 00:38:01,081
So here's Congressman Mike Gallagher

756
00:38:01,147 --> 00:38:05,352
grilling representatives of
the US Navy's UAP task force

757
00:38:05,418 --> 00:38:09,656
at a congressional hearing in May, 2022.

758
00:38:09,723 --> 00:38:11,458
- [Gallagher] It's also been
reported that there have been

759
00:38:11,524 --> 00:38:14,694
UAP observed and
interacting with and flying over

760
00:38:14,761 --> 00:38:16,363
sensitive military facilities, particularly

761
00:38:16,429 --> 00:38:19,232
and not just ranges, but
some facilities housing

762
00:38:19,299 --> 00:38:20,800
our strategic nuclear forces.

763
00:38:20,867 --> 00:38:23,303
One such incident allegedly occurred

764
00:38:23,370 --> 00:38:27,107
at Malmstrom Air Force Base
in which 10 of our nuclear ICBMs

765
00:38:27,173 --> 00:38:28,575
were rendered inoperable.

766
00:38:28,641 --> 00:38:31,378
At the same time, a glowing
red orb was observed overhead.

767
00:38:31,444 --> 00:38:32,912
I'm not commenting on the accuracy of this.

768
00:38:32,979 --> 00:38:35,648
I'm simply asking you
whether you're aware of it

769
00:38:35,715 --> 00:38:37,350
and whether you have any
comment on the accuracy

770
00:38:37,417 --> 00:38:38,585
of that report.

771
00:38:38,651 --> 00:38:39,419
- [Colleague] Let me pass that to Mr. Bray,

772
00:38:39,486 --> 00:38:41,187
you've been looking at
UAPs over the last three years.

773
00:38:41,254 --> 00:38:43,790
- [Bray] That data is
not within the holdings

774
00:38:43,857 --> 00:38:45,058
of the UAP task force.

775
00:38:45,992 --> 00:38:49,529
- OK, but are you aware of the the report

776
00:38:49,596 --> 00:38:53,033
or that the data exists somewhere?

777
00:38:53,099 --> 00:38:55,635
- I have heard stories.

778
00:38:55,702 --> 00:38:57,470
I have not seen the official data on that.

779
00:38:57,537 --> 00:39:00,774
- Well, I have, because
it's been publicly available

780
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,542
for a long time.

781
00:39:02,609 --> 00:39:07,614
The event Gallagher is
referring to happened in 1967,

782
00:39:07,681 --> 00:39:09,849
well over half a century ago,

783
00:39:09,916 --> 00:39:12,719
at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana,

784
00:39:12,786 --> 00:39:19,159
home to the 341st strategic
missile wing of Minuteman ICBMs.

785
00:39:19,225 --> 00:39:21,961
The only reason anyone
knows about this incident

786
00:39:22,028 --> 00:39:26,700
is this book, "Faded
Giant", co-written in 2005

787
00:39:26,766 --> 00:39:30,036
by UFO author Robert Salas.

788
00:39:30,103 --> 00:39:33,606
He's written at least
three books about UFOs,

789
00:39:33,673 --> 00:39:36,142
and he was actually
one of the missile officers

790
00:39:36,209 --> 00:39:39,746
on duty that day in 1967.

791
00:39:39,813 --> 00:39:43,249
So to learn more about this,
I called up a friend of mine.

792
00:39:43,316 --> 00:39:44,284
- My name is Hal Bidlack,

793
00:39:44,351 --> 00:39:45,752
I'm a retired Lieutenant Colonel

794
00:39:45,819 --> 00:39:47,354
in the United States Air Force.

795
00:39:47,420 --> 00:39:49,456
In my career, I spent my first assignment

796
00:39:49,522 --> 00:39:52,125
as a finger on the button
guy, an ICBM launch officer.

797
00:39:52,192 --> 00:39:53,927
I ultimately earned a PhD and taught

798
00:39:53,993 --> 00:39:56,062
at the Air Force Academy
for much of my career.

799
00:39:56,129 --> 00:39:58,098
- Are there a lot of missileers out there?

800
00:39:58,164 --> 00:39:59,966
- It's a relatively small
and tight community

801
00:40:00,033 --> 00:40:01,534
within the military.

802
00:40:01,601 --> 00:40:03,370
- So had you heard this story before?

803
00:40:03,436 --> 00:40:07,107
- No, and frankly, that
makes me suspicious.

804
00:40:07,173 --> 00:40:09,376
As I said, it's a small, tight community,

805
00:40:09,442 --> 00:40:11,177
and odd things do happen

806
00:40:11,244 --> 00:40:13,146
where missiles break from time to time,

807
00:40:13,213 --> 00:40:14,247
and we know about those.

808
00:40:14,314 --> 00:40:16,449
But the fact that I've
never heard of this story

809
00:40:16,516 --> 00:40:20,787
is yet another reason to
suspect it's of doubtful origin.

810
00:40:20,854 --> 00:40:22,822
- A lot of people have tried to find out

811
00:40:22,889 --> 00:40:24,357
what really happened there,

812
00:40:24,424 --> 00:40:28,294
including by filing Freedom
of Information Act requests.

813
00:40:28,361 --> 00:40:32,499
In 2001, the Air Force
responded with 84 pages.

814
00:40:32,565 --> 00:40:35,502
A lot of it consisted of
the reports of technicians

815
00:40:35,568 --> 00:40:38,071
from Boeing, which built the Minuteman,

816
00:40:38,138 --> 00:40:39,639
and these technicians were called in

817
00:40:39,706 --> 00:40:43,143
to investigate and figure
out what went wrong.

818
00:40:43,209 --> 00:40:46,846
Apparently an entire flight of 10 missiles

819
00:40:46,913 --> 00:40:50,550
all did reboot themselves on that day.

820
00:40:50,617 --> 00:40:55,121
The report focused on the
power to these launch facilities.

821
00:40:55,188 --> 00:40:56,990
How do these launch
facilities get their power?

822
00:40:57,057 --> 00:40:59,426
- Well just like any homeowner,
they plug into the grid,

823
00:40:59,492 --> 00:41:01,194
that is the primary source of power.

824
00:41:01,261 --> 00:41:03,329
There's also backups in terms of batteries

825
00:41:03,396 --> 00:41:05,965
and diesel generators,
should that power fail

826
00:41:06,032 --> 00:41:07,467
or be out of tolerance.

827
00:41:07,534 --> 00:41:11,037
- So according to this now
declassified 1967 report

828
00:41:11,104 --> 00:41:12,972
from Malmstrom Air Force Base,

829
00:41:13,039 --> 00:41:15,375
Fergus Electric is the
company that supplied

830
00:41:15,442 --> 00:41:16,643
the commercial power.

831
00:41:16,710 --> 00:41:20,213
So it says here, a 7.2 kilovolt transformer

832
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,750
shorted in the line to
cite Echo three at 14:50,

833
00:41:23,817 --> 00:41:26,086
March 16th, 1967.

834
00:41:26,152 --> 00:41:28,755
This transformer is located
on a farm two miles south

835
00:41:28,822 --> 00:41:30,657
of the Winifred substation.

836
00:41:30,724 --> 00:41:33,727
Automatic reclosure
switches at Winifred substation

837
00:41:33,793 --> 00:41:35,962
opened and were re-closed manually

838
00:41:36,029 --> 00:41:38,698
after transformer
replacement later in the day.

839
00:41:38,765 --> 00:41:41,901
This caused the brine
chiller problem at Echo 1.

840
00:41:41,968 --> 00:41:47,474
Sites Echo 3, 5, 6, 9 and 10
transferred to standby power.

841
00:41:47,540 --> 00:41:51,544
Site Echo 1 transferred
to direct current operation.

842
00:41:51,611 --> 00:41:53,546
Then it goes on to talk about
the same thing happening

843
00:41:53,613 --> 00:41:55,181
at sites 7 and 8.

844
00:41:55,248 --> 00:41:56,616
But does that seem to make sense to you?

845
00:41:56,683 --> 00:41:57,884
- Absolutely.

846
00:41:57,951 --> 00:42:00,587
The ICBM sites are,
by design, in very rural

847
00:42:00,653 --> 00:42:01,654
and distant locations,

848
00:42:01,721 --> 00:42:03,723
and they rely on the local power grid.

849
00:42:03,790 --> 00:42:05,625
They're also designed
to protect themselves.

850
00:42:05,692 --> 00:42:08,028
So yes, if a current problem occurred,

851
00:42:08,094 --> 00:42:09,662
they would cut themselves off from that,

852
00:42:09,729 --> 00:42:11,364
they'd restart their electrical power,

853
00:42:11,431 --> 00:42:13,800
and wait for the outside
current to stabilize.

854
00:42:13,867 --> 00:42:16,169
- Could a power event
like this cause the missiles

855
00:42:16,236 --> 00:42:17,971
to reboot themselves?

856
00:42:18,038 --> 00:42:19,439
- Well, it certainly wouldn't
be a common event

857
00:42:19,506 --> 00:42:21,341
but it's also not unheard of.

858
00:42:21,408 --> 00:42:22,942
- So if the only thing that happened

859
00:42:23,009 --> 00:42:25,945
was this power surge
from the blown transformer,

860
00:42:26,012 --> 00:42:29,382
and that caused the
missiles to reboot normally,

861
00:42:29,449 --> 00:42:32,485
how long were they actually down for?

862
00:42:32,552 --> 00:42:35,155
The report goes on to say
that the exact time estimates

863
00:42:35,221 --> 00:42:36,623
couldn't be established,

864
00:42:36,690 --> 00:42:39,092
but it was approximately 10 to 40 seconds

865
00:42:39,159 --> 00:42:40,326
that the missiles were offline.

866
00:42:40,393 --> 00:42:41,628
- Seems reasonable.

867
00:42:41,695 --> 00:42:43,196
- So in your experience,

868
00:42:43,263 --> 00:42:45,198
an event like what we're talking about

869
00:42:45,265 --> 00:42:46,733
would've been unremarkable enough

870
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,134
that you say you hadn't heard of it?

871
00:42:48,201 --> 00:42:49,769
- Well in that time and place

872
00:42:49,836 --> 00:42:51,938
it would be remarkable just
because it's very uncommon

873
00:42:52,005 --> 00:42:54,107
to have anything out
of the ordinary happen.

874
00:42:54,174 --> 00:42:58,845
Missiles have about a 99.9%
reliability in On Alert record.

875
00:42:58,912 --> 00:43:01,147
So it would certainly be known at the time,

876
00:43:01,214 --> 00:43:03,850
but it would not be passed
down through the years

877
00:43:03,917 --> 00:43:06,086
as some kind of shocking event.

878
00:43:06,152 --> 00:43:08,855
- In his books, Salas actually attributed

879
00:43:08,922 --> 00:43:13,827
the missile restarts not to
the power outage, but to UFOs,

880
00:43:13,893 --> 00:43:15,762
the glowing red orbs

881
00:43:15,829 --> 00:43:18,565
that Congressman Gallagher asked about.

882
00:43:18,631 --> 00:43:21,534
Well, the Air Force did check that out.

883
00:43:21,601 --> 00:43:25,805
They found, quote, "Rumors
of unidentified flying objects"

884
00:43:25,872 --> 00:43:29,509
around the area of Echo
flight during the time of fault

885
00:43:29,576 --> 00:43:31,311
were disproven.

886
00:43:31,378 --> 00:43:32,645
A mobile strike team,

887
00:43:32,712 --> 00:43:35,548
which had checked all
November flight's launch facilities,

888
00:43:35,615 --> 00:43:39,219
on the morning of March 16th, 1967,

889
00:43:39,285 --> 00:43:43,123
were questioned and
stated that no unusual activity

890
00:43:43,189 --> 00:43:45,425
"or sightings were observed."

891
00:43:46,326 --> 00:43:48,595
Here is what actually happened.

892
00:43:48,661 --> 00:43:51,831
That power outage caused all 10 missiles

893
00:43:51,898 --> 00:43:53,633
to reboot themselves.

894
00:43:53,700 --> 00:43:57,871
They were down for no more
than 10 to 40 seconds total.

895
00:43:57,937 --> 00:44:02,142
Then, eight days later in
the town of Belt, Montana,

896
00:44:02,208 --> 00:44:05,812
someone reported seeing
a UFO to the local paper.

897
00:44:05,879 --> 00:44:09,015
There's no logical reason
to conclude one thing

898
00:44:09,082 --> 00:44:11,117
had anything to do with the other.

899
00:44:11,184 --> 00:44:15,288
38 years later, Salas writes a book

900
00:44:15,355 --> 00:44:17,290
about what he thinks he remembers

901
00:44:17,357 --> 00:44:19,959
and he's sure the UFO
and the missile reboots

902
00:44:20,026 --> 00:44:22,962
were on the same day at the same place.

903
00:44:23,029 --> 00:44:25,765
The records show he's wrong.

904
00:44:25,832 --> 00:44:29,102
I think he's probably honestly mistaken;

905
00:44:29,169 --> 00:44:34,908
38 years is a long time;
but regardless, he's wrong.

906
00:44:34,974 --> 00:44:36,476
And now today we've got something

907
00:44:36,543 --> 00:44:39,412
of a conspiracy theory
community who believe

908
00:44:39,479 --> 00:44:41,648
it's impossible that he was mistaken,

909
00:44:41,715 --> 00:44:46,252
and therefore the Air Force
must be covering up the truth,

910
00:44:46,319 --> 00:44:48,988
a truth revealed in the book.

911
00:44:49,055 --> 00:44:52,759
So Colonel Bidlack, you and
Salas both worked in a field

912
00:44:52,826 --> 00:44:54,594
dealing with a lot of classified events.

913
00:44:54,661 --> 00:44:55,428
- You bet.

914
00:44:55,495 --> 00:44:58,565
- If the Air Force classified
something or covered it up,

915
00:44:58,631 --> 00:45:01,968
would you be allowed to
freely write about it and reveal it?

916
00:45:02,035 --> 00:45:04,104
- No, I could not.

917
00:45:04,170 --> 00:45:05,038
If I chose to do that,

918
00:45:05,105 --> 00:45:07,574
I'd be setting myself up
for significant problems

919
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,043
under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

920
00:45:10,110 --> 00:45:13,513
- Publishing about
classified events is no joke.

921
00:45:13,580 --> 00:45:16,816
Mark Owen was the pen
name of one of the Navy SEALs

922
00:45:16,883 --> 00:45:20,086
who got Bin Laden, and he
wrote a 2012 book about it

923
00:45:20,153 --> 00:45:22,222
called "No Easy Day".

924
00:45:22,288 --> 00:45:23,690
To get the book out fast,

925
00:45:23,757 --> 00:45:26,926
he and his publisher decided
to skip submitting the book

926
00:45:26,993 --> 00:45:29,729
to the Department of Defense for review.

927
00:45:29,796 --> 00:45:31,865
Owen never got charged with a crime,

928
00:45:31,931 --> 00:45:36,703
but he had to turn over all
6.8 million dollars in royalties

929
00:45:36,770 --> 00:45:39,939
that he'd made and
give it to the government.

930
00:45:40,006 --> 00:45:43,143
Tom Clancy, author of the Jack Ryan novels,

931
00:45:43,209 --> 00:45:46,146
famously got questioned
by the FBI after his book

932
00:45:46,212 --> 00:45:48,415
"The Hunt for Red October" came out.

933
00:45:48,481 --> 00:45:51,518
Apparently it did reveal
classified information,

934
00:45:51,584 --> 00:45:53,553
but he showed them all the legal sources

935
00:45:53,620 --> 00:45:54,788
where he got everything,

936
00:45:54,854 --> 00:45:57,090
so there wasn't anything they could do.

937
00:45:57,157 --> 00:45:59,259
So he went on to write freely about this.

938
00:45:59,325 --> 00:46:01,161
He wrote about it in two more books.

939
00:46:01,227 --> 00:46:03,063
He's spoken about it on podcasts,

940
00:46:03,129 --> 00:46:05,265
and he's spoken about
it at UFO conferences;

941
00:46:05,331 --> 00:46:06,700
What does that tell you?

942
00:46:06,766 --> 00:46:09,169
- Well, it tells you the Air
Force just doesn't care,

943
00:46:09,235 --> 00:46:11,271
which strongly suggests that it's fiction.

944
00:46:11,338 --> 00:46:14,341
And as we know, fiction is not classified.

945
00:46:14,407 --> 00:46:17,210
- So the only evidence
that UFOs can deactivate

946
00:46:17,277 --> 00:46:21,681
our nuclear missiles is one
man's 38 year old memories

947
00:46:21,748 --> 00:46:24,417
that contradict everything
that's in the record.

948
00:46:24,484 --> 00:46:27,354
That's about as anecdotal as it gets.

949
00:46:27,420 --> 00:46:29,923
The claim of UFOs having the ability

950
00:46:29,989 --> 00:46:32,926
to disable nuclear arsenals does not meet

951
00:46:32,992 --> 00:46:35,662
any reasonable standard of evidence.

952
00:46:39,099 --> 00:46:42,736
Let's talk more about official
government UFO reports.

953
00:46:42,802 --> 00:46:46,373
We have one from a
president of the United States,

954
00:46:46,439 --> 00:46:48,608
and that's about as
official as you can get.

955
00:46:48,675 --> 00:46:51,277
You may have heard that
President Jimmy Carter

956
00:46:51,344 --> 00:46:54,581
once saw a UFO back in the 1960s

957
00:46:54,647 --> 00:46:56,583
before he was the president.

958
00:46:56,649 --> 00:46:59,819
It's a story he's told in
public any number of times,

959
00:46:59,886 --> 00:47:03,156
but it wasn't until the
wide reach of podcasts

960
00:47:03,223 --> 00:47:05,925
that we were actually able to solve it.

961
00:47:05,992 --> 00:47:08,261
The Skeptics Guide to the Universe podcast

962
00:47:08,328 --> 00:47:09,863
is one that played a role.

963
00:47:09,929 --> 00:47:11,965
To tell the story of what
happened, we're going to

964
00:47:12,032 --> 00:47:15,368
begin by traveling down to Plains, Georgia,

965
00:47:15,435 --> 00:47:19,105
to the private residence
of President Jimmy Carter.

966
00:47:19,172 --> 00:47:21,307
- Hi, I'm Josh Carter, welcome to Plains.

967
00:47:21,374 --> 00:47:22,375
I'm President Carter's grandson

968
00:47:22,442 --> 00:47:23,843
and we're sitting in his office right now.

969
00:47:23,910 --> 00:47:25,945
- So how did we come
to have President Carter

970
00:47:26,012 --> 00:47:28,148
on the Skeptics Guide podcast?

971
00:47:28,214 --> 00:47:31,885
- So Jay would have a question
at the end of every episode

972
00:47:31,951 --> 00:47:34,087
that would, for audience engagement,

973
00:47:34,154 --> 00:47:37,757
he would ask a question
about any given topic.

974
00:47:37,824 --> 00:47:40,460
And one of the questions that he asked was.

975
00:47:40,527 --> 00:47:42,162
- [Podcaster] Name the former world leader

976
00:47:42,228 --> 00:47:44,030
that used to laugh at UFO believers

977
00:47:44,097 --> 00:47:46,132
but later became a believer himself

978
00:47:46,199 --> 00:47:48,234
when he himself witnessed one?

979
00:47:48,301 --> 00:47:51,237
Think about that and be the
first one to answer correctly.

980
00:47:51,304 --> 00:47:52,339
Good luck everyone.

981
00:47:52,405 --> 00:47:53,740
- And I was like, "Man, I know exactly"

982
00:47:53,807 --> 00:47:58,111
"who he's talking about." So I
emailed the Skeptics Guide.

983
00:47:58,178 --> 00:48:00,146
- We got an email from a guy

984
00:48:00,213 --> 00:48:03,650
who claimed to be President
Jimmy Carter's grandson.

985
00:48:03,717 --> 00:48:06,619
And I have to say that I
was a little bit skeptical.

986
00:48:06,686 --> 00:48:08,521
- So Steve emailed me back and he goes.

987
00:48:08,588 --> 00:48:12,325
"OK, we believe your story
and we believe what you said,

988
00:48:12,392 --> 00:48:13,960
but do you have any proof?

989
00:48:14,027 --> 00:48:15,128
What proof can you give us

990
00:48:15,195 --> 00:48:17,430
that you're Jimmy Carter's grandson?"

991
00:48:17,497 --> 00:48:20,000
And so I sent him my wedding photo with me,

992
00:48:20,066 --> 00:48:22,235
my wife and my grandparents
standing next to me.

993
00:48:22,302 --> 00:48:26,206
Pretty definitive proof
that I am who I say I am.

994
00:48:26,272 --> 00:48:28,274
- So I invited Josh to come on the show

995
00:48:28,341 --> 00:48:31,378
and tell us the story of
President Carter's UFO sighting.

996
00:48:31,444 --> 00:48:32,445
- And I said, "Well, I could,

997
00:48:32,512 --> 00:48:34,280
but would you like to talk
to my grandfather instead?"

998
00:48:34,347 --> 00:48:34,981
And he was like,

999
00:48:35,048 --> 00:48:39,919
"Yes, sorry, I'd rather talk
to your grandfather than you.

1000
00:48:39,986 --> 00:48:40,954
No offense."

1001
00:48:41,021 --> 00:48:43,123
So I called my grandfather

1002
00:48:43,189 --> 00:48:45,258
and I asked if he would
be on the Skeptics Guide,

1003
00:48:45,325 --> 00:48:46,393
and he said, "Sure."

1004
00:48:46,459 --> 00:48:50,196
- So in 2007, episode 105 of our podcast,

1005
00:48:50,263 --> 00:48:54,000
we had on President Jimmy
Carter and he told us his story.

1006
00:50:25,058 --> 00:50:27,994
- [Steve] So he told that story,
and for several years anyway,

1007
00:50:28,061 --> 00:50:29,362
that was the end of it.

1008
00:50:29,429 --> 00:50:32,198
- Meanwhile, there's this
professor from Georgia Tech,

1009
00:50:32,265 --> 00:50:34,034
Jere Justus.

1010
00:50:34,100 --> 00:50:36,202
- Well, as a native Georgian,

1011
00:50:36,269 --> 00:50:38,605
I've always been
interested in Georgia history

1012
00:50:38,672 --> 00:50:41,975
and was one day reading
the book by Don Rhodes,

1013
00:50:42,042 --> 00:50:44,177
"Georgia Myth and Legends".

1014
00:50:44,244 --> 00:50:48,748
And it gives an account
of Carter seeing the UFO

1015
00:50:48,815 --> 00:50:53,386
and includes a replica
of his actual UFO report.

1016
00:50:54,020 --> 00:50:57,657
And when I read the details
of that description, I said,

1017
00:50:57,724 --> 00:51:01,661
"That sounds exactly
like someone describing

1018
00:51:01,728 --> 00:51:04,964
seeing a barium release cloud."

1019
00:51:05,031 --> 00:51:07,901
When I started graduate
school, I needed some support

1020
00:51:07,967 --> 00:51:10,370
so I got a job as a research assistant

1021
00:51:10,437 --> 00:51:14,574
on an Air Force project and
one of the things involved

1022
00:51:14,641 --> 00:51:17,377
was rocket launches
from Eglin Air Force Base.

1023
00:51:17,444 --> 00:51:20,180
- So what were these rockets doing?

1024
00:51:20,246 --> 00:51:22,782
- Well, the rockets
that released the barium

1025
00:51:22,849 --> 00:51:26,186
would take up a canister, if you will,

1026
00:51:26,252 --> 00:51:29,823
of barium chemical and release it out

1027
00:51:29,889 --> 00:51:31,925
at a point in the atmosphere.

1028
00:51:31,991 --> 00:51:36,162
And this would be in sunlight at altitude

1029
00:51:36,229 --> 00:51:38,732
but dark on the surface

1030
00:51:38,798 --> 00:51:42,102
so you could get good
pictures of this glowing release

1031
00:51:42,168 --> 00:51:43,603
of barium material.

1032
00:51:43,670 --> 00:51:45,905
- So the barium itself was in sunlight

1033
00:51:45,972 --> 00:51:48,008
and you're viewing it against a black sky?

1034
00:51:48,074 --> 00:51:48,908
- That's correct.

1035
00:51:48,975 --> 00:51:51,211
- So one day out of the blue,

1036
00:51:51,277 --> 00:51:54,080
I get an email from this guy Jere Justus.

1037
00:51:54,147 --> 00:51:56,850
He is a Georgia Tech
professor and he just sends me

1038
00:51:56,916 --> 00:51:57,684
an email saying,

1039
00:51:57,751 --> 00:52:01,354
"Hey, I think I figured out
your grandfather's UFO story."

1040
00:52:01,421 --> 00:52:04,057
- The sunlight would be
strong enough to actually ionize

1041
00:52:04,124 --> 00:52:05,725
part of the barium

1042
00:52:05,792 --> 00:52:10,163
and the neutral barium would
look greenish bluish color.

1043
00:52:10,230 --> 00:52:14,701
The ionized barium would
look sort of reddish color

1044
00:52:14,768 --> 00:52:17,737
and would stretch out along the field lines

1045
00:52:17,804 --> 00:52:19,606
of the Earth's magnetic field.

1046
00:52:19,673 --> 00:52:21,474
And so this was part of the studies

1047
00:52:21,541 --> 00:52:24,044
as to determine characteristics

1048
00:52:24,110 --> 00:52:27,580
of the Earth's magnetic
field at those altitudes.

1049
00:52:27,647 --> 00:52:29,916
- The Air Force was absolutely
launching sounding rockets

1050
00:52:29,983 --> 00:52:32,185
during that time and
continues to to this day

1051
00:52:32,252 --> 00:52:33,853
for a variety of purposes.

1052
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:35,288
They would have had
different things in them

1053
00:52:35,355 --> 00:52:37,257
that they would have dumped
in the atmosphere, for example,

1054
00:52:37,323 --> 00:52:40,060
to test radio reflectability
and other aspects

1055
00:52:40,126 --> 00:52:41,294
of military operations.

1056
00:52:41,361 --> 00:52:43,496
So it's not unusual or
odd at all that a person

1057
00:52:43,563 --> 00:52:45,565
could have seen a
cloud like that in the sky.

1058
00:52:45,632 --> 00:52:47,667
- As it starts out as a
small little point of light

1059
00:52:47,734 --> 00:52:50,370
that glows and it expands

1060
00:52:50,437 --> 00:52:53,873
into a big giant orb
that turns red or blue,

1061
00:52:53,940 --> 00:52:56,343
depending on how the sun hits it

1062
00:52:56,409 --> 00:52:59,312
and how the barium gets
ionized and then it dissipates.

1063
00:52:59,379 --> 00:53:01,481
And I was like, "Wow, that
sounds exactly like the story

1064
00:53:01,548 --> 00:53:02,482
that I've heard my entire life

1065
00:53:02,549 --> 00:53:04,351
of my grandfather's UFO."

1066
00:53:04,417 --> 00:53:05,719
- So did you pass that on?

1067
00:53:05,785 --> 00:53:08,154
And what did the president think of that?

1068
00:53:08,221 --> 00:53:09,356
- He was excited about it.

1069
00:53:09,422 --> 00:53:11,558
He was excited to have an answer

1070
00:53:11,624 --> 00:53:15,628
and moving from unidentified to identified,

1071
00:53:15,695 --> 00:53:17,430
was very satisfactory for him.

1072
00:53:17,497 --> 00:53:19,099
To know what it was.

1073
00:53:19,165 --> 00:53:21,134
Because when my
grandfather told that story,

1074
00:53:21,201 --> 00:53:25,405
a lot of people assumed that he saw Venus.

1075
00:53:25,472 --> 00:53:27,407
He grew up looking at the sky,

1076
00:53:27,474 --> 00:53:29,309
he grew up interested in astronomy,

1077
00:53:29,376 --> 00:53:30,810
he grew up as a naval officer.

1078
00:53:30,877 --> 00:53:33,513
He knew what Venus looked
like and he was offended

1079
00:53:33,580 --> 00:53:36,816
that people thought that he
didn't know what Venus was.

1080
00:53:38,251 --> 00:53:40,253
- Professor Justus tracked down

1081
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:44,024
the exact launch on the right day and time

1082
00:53:44,090 --> 00:53:46,826
that President Carter had
been outside the Lions Club,

1083
00:53:46,893 --> 00:53:49,496
and found that Carter's
estimates of direction

1084
00:53:49,562 --> 00:53:54,534
and elevation had been almost
exactly right on the money.

1085
00:53:54,801 --> 00:53:56,002
- Well, my initial findings,

1086
00:53:56,069 --> 00:53:58,972
I sent to the Carter Center
and heard back from them

1087
00:53:59,039 --> 00:54:01,608
that they had passed it
along to President Carter

1088
00:54:01,675 --> 00:54:05,178
for his analysis and he basically concurred

1089
00:54:05,245 --> 00:54:10,917
that it was plausible that that
was indeed what he had seen.

1090
00:54:10,984 --> 00:54:13,853
And so to the president's own satisfaction,

1091
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,657
it turns out that his UFO
was a fairly exotic piece

1092
00:54:17,724 --> 00:54:21,628
of airborne clutter: an
artificial barium cloud.

1093
00:54:25,331 --> 00:54:27,534
OK, so the UFO stories that have gotten

1094
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:30,270
by far the most attention
over the past few years

1095
00:54:30,337 --> 00:54:33,506
have been the videos that
came from the US Navy.

1096
00:54:33,573 --> 00:54:36,943
Originally there were three of
them called Gimbal, Go Fast,

1097
00:54:37,010 --> 00:54:40,347
and Nimitz, also called the Tic Tac video.

1098
00:54:40,413 --> 00:54:42,248
These videos are from the camera screens

1099
00:54:42,315 --> 00:54:45,452
in the F-18 fighters that
were there on the scene.

1100
00:54:45,518 --> 00:54:48,154
Now a lot of people feel that
what's shown in these videos

1101
00:54:48,221 --> 00:54:51,324
are extraordinary craft making movements

1102
00:54:51,391 --> 00:54:53,993
beyond the capability
of anything we know of.

1103
00:54:54,060 --> 00:54:55,795
And if you don't understand the meaning

1104
00:54:55,862 --> 00:54:58,965
of all the numbers and other
data shown on the screens,

1105
00:54:59,032 --> 00:55:01,434
it would be pretty easy to
get that same impression.

1106
00:55:02,268 --> 00:55:05,305
So I wanted to talk with
someone who does understand

1107
00:55:05,372 --> 00:55:07,007
all the stuff on the screens,

1108
00:55:07,073 --> 00:55:08,875
and who has an even deeper knowledge

1109
00:55:08,942 --> 00:55:12,512
of the entire scene being
presented in these videos.

1110
00:55:12,579 --> 00:55:14,481
Now it just so happens
that a friend of mine

1111
00:55:14,547 --> 00:55:17,917
by the name of Mick West
happens to be that guy.

1112
00:55:17,984 --> 00:55:19,886
Ever since these videos were released,

1113
00:55:19,953 --> 00:55:23,356
Mick has been making
appearances on TV and online

1114
00:55:23,423 --> 00:55:26,693
all around the world
explaining what we're seeing.

1115
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,963
Before he fell into being
basically the world's foremost

1116
00:55:30,030 --> 00:55:34,000
UFO video analyst, Mick
did 3D physics simulations

1117
00:55:34,067 --> 00:55:35,869
in video game development.

1118
00:55:35,935 --> 00:55:38,304
He's also created a piece
of proprietary software

1119
00:55:38,371 --> 00:55:41,107
called Sitrec, which can combine data

1120
00:55:41,174 --> 00:55:43,410
from many different sources to recreate

1121
00:55:43,476 --> 00:55:45,612
what's in videos like these,

1122
00:55:45,679 --> 00:55:48,848
a recreation that's geospatially accurate.

1123
00:55:49,716 --> 00:55:51,084
- Sitrec is a tool I developed,

1124
00:55:51,151 --> 00:55:53,453
it's called the Situation Recreation Tool.

1125
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,823
And the idea is that we
take a video of a UFO,

1126
00:55:56,890 --> 00:55:59,392
like this one here and then
make my own version of it

1127
00:55:59,459 --> 00:56:02,095
by creating a full 3D simulation

1128
00:56:02,162 --> 00:56:03,930
that's mathematically accurate.

1129
00:56:03,997 --> 00:56:06,299
- So what we've got here
is that's the original video

1130
00:56:06,366 --> 00:56:08,335
and that's your 3D recreation?

1131
00:56:08,401 --> 00:56:09,169
- That's right.

1132
00:56:09,235 --> 00:56:10,070
And as you can see, it's pretty much

1133
00:56:10,136 --> 00:56:11,871
the same in terms of
the way the cloud moves

1134
00:56:11,938 --> 00:56:14,574
and this little object here
moves the same way.

1135
00:56:14,641 --> 00:56:16,209
And I can zip through the video

1136
00:56:16,276 --> 00:56:17,410
and we can see it moving along.

1137
00:56:17,477 --> 00:56:20,313
Here's the plane moving
along that's taking the video

1138
00:56:20,380 --> 00:56:22,849
and here's the track of the object,

1139
00:56:22,916 --> 00:56:24,217
the potential track of the object.

1140
00:56:24,284 --> 00:56:26,886
- So how do you know where the plane was?

1141
00:56:26,953 --> 00:56:28,521
How do you know where the object was?

1142
00:56:28,588 --> 00:56:30,123
Where do you get all this data?

1143
00:56:30,190 --> 00:56:32,392
- Well, for the plane itself
down here we get all the data

1144
00:56:32,459 --> 00:56:33,593
from this screen here.

1145
00:56:33,660 --> 00:56:37,364
We know what the bank
angle is by extracting, by using

1146
00:56:37,430 --> 00:56:40,400
motion capture techniques
to extract the angle here.

1147
00:56:40,467 --> 00:56:42,535
We know the heading of the camera here,

1148
00:56:42,602 --> 00:56:46,473
53 degrees left, 2 degrees down.

1149
00:56:46,539 --> 00:56:49,342
And we can use that to
create these lines of sight here.

1150
00:56:50,543 --> 00:56:54,180
And so we've got the
little plane flying along here

1151
00:56:54,247 --> 00:56:56,016
and we have its targeting part

1152
00:56:56,082 --> 00:56:58,284
and we know what
direction it's pointing in.

1153
00:56:58,351 --> 00:57:00,253
So we know that the other object

1154
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,023
is somewhere along
all of these lines of sight.

1155
00:57:03,089 --> 00:57:05,825
We don't know how far away it is though.

1156
00:57:05,892 --> 00:57:08,928
So I allow the user to
experiment with things like that

1157
00:57:08,995 --> 00:57:11,231
and we take this little slider here

1158
00:57:11,297 --> 00:57:12,499
and we can adjust how far away

1159
00:57:12,565 --> 00:57:15,602
the actual theoretical object is.

1160
00:57:15,669 --> 00:57:18,304
- So let's start with the
Navy video called Gimbal,

1161
00:57:18,371 --> 00:57:19,606
- Right. - What's up with that?

1162
00:57:19,673 --> 00:57:20,874
- So this is the Gimbal video.

1163
00:57:20,940 --> 00:57:23,777
It looks like a kind of saucer shaped craft

1164
00:57:23,843 --> 00:57:25,779
flying over a cloud base.

1165
00:57:25,845 --> 00:57:27,747
It's viewed in infrared.

1166
00:57:27,814 --> 00:57:30,150
And the claim is that
it's an actual flying saucer

1167
00:57:30,216 --> 00:57:32,986
and it's moving with no
visible means of propulsion.

1168
00:57:33,053 --> 00:57:34,421
And it's particularly interesting

1169
00:57:34,487 --> 00:57:35,922
because towards the end of the video

1170
00:57:35,989 --> 00:57:38,024
it does this little rotation here,

1171
00:57:38,091 --> 00:57:40,794
which isn't something that
a normal plane could do.

1172
00:57:40,860 --> 00:57:43,563
- So what do you think
is actually going on?

1173
00:57:43,630 --> 00:57:44,931
- We've got two possibilities here.

1174
00:57:44,998 --> 00:57:48,368
It could be something
that's close to the plane

1175
00:57:48,435 --> 00:57:51,638
in some kinda weird curvy path back here.

1176
00:57:51,705 --> 00:57:53,773
We could be doing this weird curve.

1177
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:55,875
Or it's something that
could be further away

1178
00:57:55,942 --> 00:57:57,210
doing a straight line.

1179
00:57:57,277 --> 00:58:00,447
And I think the most likely
thing for this particular video

1180
00:58:00,513 --> 00:58:01,281
is that what we're looking at

1181
00:58:01,348 --> 00:58:04,117
is something that's actually quite far away

1182
00:58:04,184 --> 00:58:07,020
and it's perhaps another
plane moving in a straight line

1183
00:58:07,087 --> 00:58:09,489
and what we're seeing
is the back of the plane.

1184
00:58:09,556 --> 00:58:11,758
- It doesn't look like a distant jet.

1185
00:58:11,825 --> 00:58:13,393
- No, I think what we're actually seeing

1186
00:58:13,460 --> 00:58:15,295
isn't the shape of the object itself,

1187
00:58:15,362 --> 00:58:18,898
but the shape of the
infrared glare from this object,

1188
00:58:18,965 --> 00:58:21,001
like if you were to take a
flashlight like this one here

1189
00:58:21,067 --> 00:58:22,535
and you point it at the camera,

1190
00:58:22,602 --> 00:58:25,505
you get a glare around it
which is a certain shape

1191
00:58:25,572 --> 00:58:30,043
and because of the way the
camera on this jet is mounted,

1192
00:58:30,110 --> 00:58:31,878
when it traverse a certain angle,

1193
00:58:31,945 --> 00:58:34,981
it actually has to do this rotation

1194
00:58:35,048 --> 00:58:37,517
and it has to do it because
of the gimbal system,

1195
00:58:37,584 --> 00:58:40,086
which coincidentally is
the name of the video,

1196
00:58:40,153 --> 00:58:42,956
the official Navy name of
the video, the Gimbal video.

1197
00:58:43,023 --> 00:58:46,059
- Is there anything on the screen

1198
00:58:46,126 --> 00:58:50,330
that tells you the angle of the gimbal?

1199
00:58:50,397 --> 00:58:51,664
- There's nothing that tells
you the angle of the gimbal,

1200
00:58:51,731 --> 00:58:54,834
but what you do get is this azimuth angle

1201
00:58:54,901 --> 00:58:58,605
and this other angle here,
which is the elevation angle.

1202
00:58:58,672 --> 00:59:01,274
And you can use those to calculate

1203
00:59:01,341 --> 00:59:03,777
what the gimbal angle actually has to be.

1204
00:59:03,843 --> 00:59:05,178
- I see.

1205
00:59:05,245 --> 00:59:06,680
- So if you move this along,

1206
00:59:06,746 --> 00:59:09,115
you can see as you move
around a certain region,

1207
00:59:09,182 --> 00:59:11,851
it has to do a rotation
in order to keep pointing

1208
00:59:11,918 --> 00:59:13,286
in a certain direction.

1209
00:59:15,155 --> 00:59:17,157
- That one's a really interesting problem

1210
00:59:17,223 --> 00:59:20,360
because we only have video, just the image

1211
00:59:20,427 --> 00:59:22,729
of what the plane's cameras were seeing.

1212
00:59:22,796 --> 00:59:24,264
If it was a radar screen,

1213
00:59:24,330 --> 00:59:26,433
we would know how far away the object was

1214
00:59:26,499 --> 00:59:28,001
and how it was moving.

1215
00:59:28,068 --> 00:59:32,105
But that data doesn't exist so
that makes analysts like Mick

1216
00:59:32,172 --> 00:59:35,642
have to go the long way
around and reverse engineer

1217
00:59:35,709 --> 00:59:37,544
the entire situation.

1218
00:59:37,610 --> 00:59:39,245
- I think the most likely explanation

1219
00:59:39,312 --> 00:59:41,381
is that it's another military jet

1220
00:59:41,448 --> 00:59:45,051
that is just about 20 to 30 miles away,

1221
00:59:45,118 --> 00:59:47,587
just flying away and we're just looking

1222
00:59:47,654 --> 00:59:48,855
basically up its tailpipe,

1223
00:59:48,922 --> 00:59:51,758
at its jet engines and
that's creating the glare.

1224
00:59:51,825 --> 00:59:52,826
- There you have it.

1225
00:59:52,892 --> 00:59:55,495
Probably nothing out
of the ordinary at all.

1226
00:59:56,329 --> 00:59:58,732
- All right, let's look at
the video they call Go Fast.

1227
00:59:58,798 --> 00:59:59,766
- This is the Go Fast video.

1228
00:59:59,833 --> 01:00:02,035
It looks like something
is moving very fast,

1229
01:00:02,102 --> 01:00:03,036
hence the name Go Fast.

1230
01:00:03,103 --> 01:00:06,006
We see this little white
dot and it looks like

1231
01:00:06,072 --> 01:00:08,108
it's zipping over the surface of the ocean.

1232
01:00:08,174 --> 01:00:10,010
At the start of the video
you see them trying

1233
01:00:10,076 --> 01:00:12,445
to lock onto it and then
they finally do lock onto it

1234
01:00:12,512 --> 01:00:15,115
and now the the pod itself is tracking it.

1235
01:00:15,181 --> 01:00:17,017
So the claim here is that this is something

1236
01:00:17,083 --> 01:00:19,452
with no visible means
of propulsion, it's cold,

1237
01:00:19,519 --> 01:00:22,322
we see it's white, which
means cold in this mode

1238
01:00:22,389 --> 01:00:23,857
and it's moving very, very fast.

1239
01:00:23,923 --> 01:00:26,459
So people think, people get
very excited about this one.

1240
01:00:26,526 --> 01:00:29,696
- Yeah, I mean it looks
pretty exciting to me.

1241
01:00:29,763 --> 01:00:33,133
How could this be
something not moving fast?

1242
01:00:33,199 --> 01:00:34,734
- Well, the interesting
thing about this video

1243
01:00:34,801 --> 01:00:36,836
is that we get a lot of
information on screen.

1244
01:00:36,903 --> 01:00:39,439
We have here this 4.3 nautical miles range,

1245
01:00:39,506 --> 01:00:41,574
which is the distance from
the camera to the object.

1246
01:00:41,641 --> 01:00:44,577
And we have this angle we're
looking down, 27 degrees,

1247
01:00:44,644 --> 01:00:47,847
and we have the altitude of
the plane here, 25,000 feet.

1248
01:00:47,914 --> 01:00:50,383
So we can take this angle
here and this distance

1249
01:00:50,450 --> 01:00:53,620
and we can do 4.3 times the sin of 27

1250
01:00:53,687 --> 01:00:57,090
tells you how far below the plane it is.

1251
01:00:57,157 --> 01:00:59,426
Very simple high school trigonometry.

1252
01:00:59,492 --> 01:01:02,762
Turns out it's about 11,000 feet down.

1253
01:01:02,829 --> 01:01:06,433
Subtract that from 25,000
feet, you get 14,000 feet.

1254
01:01:06,499 --> 01:01:08,935
So it's actually 14,000
feet above the ocean.

1255
01:01:09,002 --> 01:01:10,770
It's not down by the ocean.

1256
01:01:10,837 --> 01:01:14,274
It's halfway between this
plane that's taking the video

1257
01:01:14,341 --> 01:01:16,109
and the ocean service itself,

1258
01:01:16,176 --> 01:01:19,145
which means that it's
actually moving very slowly.

1259
01:01:19,212 --> 01:01:20,747
- [Brian] I've heard people who should know

1260
01:01:20,814 --> 01:01:23,783
what they're talking
about, pilots, military pilots,

1261
01:01:23,850 --> 01:01:26,586
people in these government
hearings saying that

1262
01:01:26,653 --> 01:01:29,756
"No; what this video shows
is something going very fast."

1263
01:01:29,823 --> 01:01:31,691
- It looks like it's moving very fast

1264
01:01:31,758 --> 01:01:33,326
and it's a very compelling illusion.

1265
01:01:33,393 --> 01:01:35,362
Something that's far away moving fast

1266
01:01:35,428 --> 01:01:38,331
looks the same as something
that's close and moving slow.

1267
01:01:38,398 --> 01:01:39,966
But you've got to do the trigonometry,

1268
01:01:40,033 --> 01:01:41,901
you've got to take these
numbers into account

1269
01:01:41,968 --> 01:01:43,269
and they're simply not doing that.

1270
01:01:43,336 --> 01:01:46,239
If they do the math, they'll
get the same answer that I do.

1271
01:01:46,306 --> 01:01:47,841
- But even the pilots thought

1272
01:01:47,907 --> 01:01:50,543
that this was something extraordinary.

1273
01:01:56,916 --> 01:01:59,919
- Can pilots be wrong
about something like that?

1274
01:01:59,986 --> 01:02:01,421
Well, I asked another friend of mine,

1275
01:02:01,488 --> 01:02:02,956
remember we saw him earlier?

1276
01:02:03,023 --> 01:02:06,993
Jason Bush, who happens
to be an air traffic controller.

1277
01:02:07,894 --> 01:02:10,864
So do pilots ever make
mistakes like the rest of us?

1278
01:02:10,930 --> 01:02:11,698
- Absolutely.

1279
01:02:11,765 --> 01:02:14,868
They make big mistakes,
small mistakes every day.

1280
01:02:14,934 --> 01:02:17,137
- What are some common
mistakes you see pilots make?

1281
01:02:17,203 --> 01:02:19,539
- A pilot might read
back the wrong altitude,

1282
01:02:19,606 --> 01:02:21,474
obviously see it in the news sometimes

1283
01:02:21,541 --> 01:02:23,843
where a pilot might try to
land at the wrong airport.

1284
01:02:23,910 --> 01:02:26,713
Both civilian and military have done that.

1285
01:02:26,780 --> 01:02:28,515
- So you're saying pilots are human?

1286
01:02:28,581 --> 01:02:30,183
- Pilots are absolutely human.

1287
01:02:30,250 --> 01:02:33,586
- The error so many people
make with this particular video

1288
01:02:33,653 --> 01:02:36,489
is caused by one of the
most common optical illusions.

1289
01:02:36,556 --> 01:02:39,959
It's called the motion parallax illusion.

1290
01:02:40,026 --> 01:02:43,430
Mick shot this little video
in his yard to demonstrate it.

1291
01:02:43,496 --> 01:02:45,965
He hung this ping pong ball from a tree,

1292
01:02:46,032 --> 01:02:48,368
then walked past it with his camera.

1293
01:02:48,435 --> 01:02:50,437
When you zoom in, it looks like the ball

1294
01:02:50,503 --> 01:02:52,539
is moving at great speed,

1295
01:02:52,605 --> 01:02:56,076
but the ball's not moving
at all, only you are.

1296
01:02:56,142 --> 01:02:58,645
That's the motion parallax illusion.

1297
01:02:58,712 --> 01:03:01,614
It's why the object seems to
be moving relative to the ocean

1298
01:03:01,681 --> 01:03:03,249
in the Go Fast video.

1299
01:03:03,316 --> 01:03:05,919
And it's why the distant
plane seems to be moving

1300
01:03:05,985 --> 01:03:09,723
relative to the clouds in the Gimbal video.

1301
01:03:09,789 --> 01:03:12,292
So I wondered if pilots are trained

1302
01:03:12,359 --> 01:03:14,561
in this common optical illusion.

1303
01:03:14,627 --> 01:03:17,230
To find out, I took a
flight with another friend,

1304
01:03:17,297 --> 01:03:21,034
Chris Freeze, who's a highly
experienced flight instructor.

1305
01:03:22,268 --> 01:03:23,203
- I'm on the short list.

1306
01:03:23,269 --> 01:03:28,208
I've got over 3000 hours
of dual instruction given,

1307
01:03:28,274 --> 01:03:30,443
I've been a flight instructor
for about 15 years.

1308
01:03:30,510 --> 01:03:33,947
- Chris knows what gets
taught to pilots and what doesn't.

1309
01:03:34,014 --> 01:03:37,951
- Do pilots know what the
motion parallax illusion is?

1310
01:03:40,787 --> 01:03:43,256
- Probably not in said term.

1311
01:03:43,323 --> 01:03:45,392
I mean flight instructors
are trained in the idea

1312
01:03:45,458 --> 01:03:47,961
of parallax when it comes to the cockpit.

1313
01:03:48,028 --> 01:03:50,030
But in terms of motion,

1314
01:03:50,096 --> 01:03:52,799
I've never heard it in any of my training.

1315
01:03:52,866 --> 01:03:56,136
- It's just a common
thing that can fool anyone.

1316
01:03:56,202 --> 01:03:59,039
Do pilots make the same kind
of mistakes as other people?

1317
01:03:59,105 --> 01:04:00,240
- Absolutely.

1318
01:04:00,306 --> 01:04:02,909
Pilots are not perfect,
controllers are not perfect.

1319
01:04:02,976 --> 01:04:05,712
- Pilots are not sky gods,
they're regular people.

1320
01:04:05,779 --> 01:04:08,515
They put their pants on one leg at a time.

1321
01:04:08,581 --> 01:04:11,885
- What is it that makes
pilots, especially military pilots,

1322
01:04:11,951 --> 01:04:14,020
better observers than the rest of us?

1323
01:04:14,087 --> 01:04:15,789
- I mean, they have got
some unique equipment

1324
01:04:15,855 --> 01:04:17,724
that the civilian market doesn't have.

1325
01:04:17,791 --> 01:04:21,528
They've got faster equipment than the 182

1326
01:04:21,594 --> 01:04:23,163
that we're flying right here.

1327
01:04:23,229 --> 01:04:24,798
But at the end of the day,

1328
01:04:26,332 --> 01:04:28,234
they're just people flying airplanes.

1329
01:04:28,301 --> 01:04:30,337
- One of the leading
guesses for what that thing is

1330
01:04:30,403 --> 01:04:33,306
in the Go Fast video is, believe it or not,

1331
01:04:33,373 --> 01:04:35,775
a simple weather balloon floating along.

1332
01:04:35,842 --> 01:04:38,345
It could even be a Mylar party balloon.

1333
01:04:38,411 --> 01:04:41,481
How it looks in the video
is exactly how balloons look

1334
01:04:41,548 --> 01:04:42,816
on that same camera.

1335
01:04:43,683 --> 01:04:46,953
- I had a student the other
day, we were flying along,

1336
01:04:47,020 --> 01:04:51,324
he swore he saw a drone at 4,000 feet.

1337
01:04:51,391 --> 01:04:52,592
It could have been a Mylar balloon.

1338
01:04:52,659 --> 01:04:54,427
I think it probably was a Mylar balloon

1339
01:04:54,494 --> 01:04:56,830
given the altitude and the like

1340
01:04:56,896 --> 01:04:58,031
and especially where it was,

1341
01:04:58,098 --> 01:05:01,601
I mean over Lancaster County, Pennsylvania.

1342
01:05:01,668 --> 01:05:04,104
- I understand that if you
are in the heat of flying,

1343
01:05:04,170 --> 01:05:07,474
you're not necessarily going
to do Mick's same calculations

1344
01:05:07,540 --> 01:05:09,876
to see how high that little dot is.

1345
01:05:09,943 --> 01:05:12,345
But these are military pilots.

1346
01:05:12,412 --> 01:05:13,980
Aren't professionals trained

1347
01:05:14,047 --> 01:05:17,283
to be able to tell how far away a dot is?

1348
01:05:17,350 --> 01:05:20,086
- Controllers are not
better at judging the size

1349
01:05:20,153 --> 01:05:21,921
or speed of a single dot.

1350
01:05:21,988 --> 01:05:24,324
Something could be up close moving slow

1351
01:05:24,391 --> 01:05:26,893
and it could match exactly
what something far away

1352
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:28,261
moving fast is going.

1353
01:05:28,328 --> 01:05:29,929
You have no idea what the speed is

1354
01:05:29,996 --> 01:05:32,499
unless you know how far away something is.

1355
01:05:32,565 --> 01:05:34,734
- Is a trained pilot better
able than a layperson

1356
01:05:34,801 --> 01:05:39,773
to judge the size, speed
and distance of a single dot?

1357
01:05:40,140 --> 01:05:41,041
- No.

1358
01:05:41,274 --> 01:05:44,811
- So in short, all indications
are that this was nothing

1359
01:05:44,878 --> 01:05:46,913
more exotic than a balloon.

1360
01:05:47,814 --> 01:05:50,216
Alright, so now let's
look at the Nimitz video.

1361
01:05:50,283 --> 01:05:53,586
- Right, so the Nimitz
video, shot back in 2004.

1362
01:05:53,653 --> 01:05:57,223
Again, it shows a little
blob way off in the distance.

1363
01:05:57,290 --> 01:05:59,526
And the interesting thing about this video

1364
01:05:59,592 --> 01:06:01,661
is that this little blob appears

1365
01:06:01,728 --> 01:06:04,798
to make sudden movements now and again

1366
01:06:04,864 --> 01:06:09,235
and people have claimed
that the movements it's making

1367
01:06:09,302 --> 01:06:10,870
are inconsistent with a human craft,

1368
01:06:10,937 --> 01:06:12,806
like it's accelerating far too fast,

1369
01:06:12,872 --> 01:06:17,143
the G-forces will be far too
intense for a human pilot.

1370
01:06:18,111 --> 01:06:20,146
So they claim that it makes
these sudden movements

1371
01:06:20,213 --> 01:06:21,514
which are impossible.

1372
01:06:21,581 --> 01:06:22,882
- Wow.

1373
01:06:22,949 --> 01:06:24,250
It just went flying off the screen

1374
01:06:24,317 --> 01:06:25,518
at a billion miles an hour.

1375
01:06:25,585 --> 01:06:26,519
- Yeah.

1376
01:06:26,586 --> 01:06:28,421
It looks like it's actually moving.

1377
01:06:28,488 --> 01:06:31,057
It looks like there's
actual motion of the craft.

1378
01:06:31,124 --> 01:06:34,060
There's a couple of
movements in particular, right?

1379
01:06:34,127 --> 01:06:35,929
Right here you'll see it zip down

1380
01:06:35,995 --> 01:06:38,365
from the center to the outside.

1381
01:06:38,431 --> 01:06:40,500
It's just like hanging
out in the middle there.

1382
01:06:40,567 --> 01:06:42,769
Then all of a sudden it seems to disappear.

1383
01:06:42,836 --> 01:06:43,603
- Yeah.

1384
01:06:43,670 --> 01:06:44,904
Well it's on video. I mean, how do you?

1385
01:06:44,971 --> 01:06:47,507
- If you go back and you
analyze these in depth,

1386
01:06:47,574 --> 01:06:49,843
you'll see that every
time it does a movement,

1387
01:06:49,909 --> 01:06:54,647
it actually coincides with
some kind of camera motion.

1388
01:06:54,714 --> 01:06:56,816
We can see that the person taking the video

1389
01:06:56,883 --> 01:06:59,419
is actually switching between
modes, between zoom levels,

1390
01:06:59,486 --> 01:07:02,655
between types of camera
throughout the entire video.

1391
01:07:02,722 --> 01:07:05,625
And every time it does
that, the camera loses lock.

1392
01:07:05,692 --> 01:07:06,860
- Is there something on the screen

1393
01:07:06,926 --> 01:07:10,497
that tells us what the zoom
level is or the type of camera?

1394
01:07:10,563 --> 01:07:11,998
- Right here, it says here,

1395
01:07:12,065 --> 01:07:14,668
It says "NAR", in the
corner, it says, "1X zoom."

1396
01:07:14,734 --> 01:07:17,771
These combine to tell
you what the zoom level is.

1397
01:07:17,837 --> 01:07:20,073
This is the optical path that it's using,

1398
01:07:20,140 --> 01:07:22,842
narrow at the moment,
and this is digital zoom.

1399
01:07:22,909 --> 01:07:26,913
Right up here it says "IR"
and in some points in the video

1400
01:07:26,980 --> 01:07:29,916
that says "TV", right
here it's saying "TV".

1401
01:07:29,983 --> 01:07:32,786
And when it switches between TV and IR,

1402
01:07:32,852 --> 01:07:34,120
if you watch that here,

1403
01:07:34,854 --> 01:07:36,456
you saw that little movement
right there at the start?

1404
01:07:36,523 --> 01:07:38,258
- Yeah.

1405
01:07:38,324 --> 01:07:40,527
- When it switches from
one camera mode to another,

1406
01:07:40,593 --> 01:07:43,930
it loses lock on the
object and it very briefly

1407
01:07:43,997 --> 01:07:46,933
just keeps moving in the
way it was moving before.

1408
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:49,502
So here we're changing modes.

1409
01:07:49,569 --> 01:07:52,105
It does a little movement to the side.

1410
01:07:52,172 --> 01:07:53,340
Same thing happened right there.

1411
01:07:53,406 --> 01:07:54,674
It just switched modes again,

1412
01:07:54,741 --> 01:07:56,776
it did a little movement to the side.

1413
01:07:56,843 --> 01:07:58,411
Where it gets interesting
is when it changes

1414
01:07:58,478 --> 01:08:02,582
between a narrow field of
view and a wide field of view.

1415
01:08:02,649 --> 01:08:04,050
Here we're in narrow field of view,

1416
01:08:04,117 --> 01:08:07,287
meaning we're really zoomed
in and we're going to change

1417
01:08:07,354 --> 01:08:09,889
to a medium or a wide field of view.

1418
01:08:09,956 --> 01:08:14,060
And we do that here,
and we see it's had to,

1419
01:08:14,127 --> 01:08:15,995
the object zips off.

1420
01:08:16,062 --> 01:08:17,731
Now the reason it's zipping off

1421
01:08:17,797 --> 01:08:19,699
is kind of similar to what
happens with a microscope.

1422
01:08:19,766 --> 01:08:20,800
When you're looking through a microscope

1423
01:08:20,867 --> 01:08:22,936
and you change from one
magnification to another,

1424
01:08:23,003 --> 01:08:25,071
you'll see it looks like the
whole image is moving.

1425
01:08:25,138 --> 01:08:27,474
- Yeah, because the lens
actually moves out of the way.

1426
01:08:27,540 --> 01:08:28,808
- Yeah, the lens,

1427
01:08:28,875 --> 01:08:30,176
you change from one lens to another

1428
01:08:30,243 --> 01:08:31,644
and that's what's happening here.

1429
01:08:31,711 --> 01:08:33,613
This object isn't moving off to the side.

1430
01:08:33,680 --> 01:08:36,683
All that's happening is one optical pathway

1431
01:08:36,750 --> 01:08:38,485
is rotating into position.

1432
01:08:38,551 --> 01:08:40,887
It's basically an internal
thing in the camera,

1433
01:08:40,954 --> 01:08:44,124
a little prism rotates
or a little mirror rotates.

1434
01:08:44,190 --> 01:08:45,392
Now, right at the end of the video,

1435
01:08:45,458 --> 01:08:48,194
the one that people talk
about the most is this one here.

1436
01:08:48,261 --> 01:08:50,263
We're in medium field of view,

1437
01:08:50,330 --> 01:08:53,033
but it's going to change
to narrow field of view,

1438
01:08:53,099 --> 01:08:54,601
means he's going to zoom in on it.

1439
01:08:54,668 --> 01:08:57,203
And that happens right about here.

1440
01:08:57,270 --> 01:09:01,675
So we change modes, as
this indicator lags a little bit,

1441
01:09:01,741 --> 01:09:04,644
and when the camera comes back up,

1442
01:09:04,711 --> 01:09:07,614
the object is just outside the bars

1443
01:09:07,681 --> 01:09:11,584
and it widens the bars,
tries to get it back in again,

1444
01:09:11,651 --> 01:09:14,020
it's just outside still, widens it,

1445
01:09:14,087 --> 01:09:16,256
for some reason it narrows it there

1446
01:09:16,322 --> 01:09:17,724
and now it's lost it, it's gone.

1447
01:09:17,791 --> 01:09:18,792
It's outside.

1448
01:09:18,858 --> 01:09:20,260
It tries to get it again.

1449
01:09:20,326 --> 01:09:22,929
It switches to 2X zoom at that point.

1450
01:09:22,996 --> 01:09:25,265
So this jump here isn't an actual motion.

1451
01:09:25,331 --> 01:09:25,732
- Oh...

1452
01:09:25,799 --> 01:09:27,467
- This is actually just
switching from one zoom level

1453
01:09:27,534 --> 01:09:29,669
to another zoom level, especially that one.

1454
01:09:32,238 --> 01:09:36,543
And then the object
basically just drifts off screen.

1455
01:09:36,609 --> 01:09:39,312
- So can we take a look at this in Sitrec

1456
01:09:39,379 --> 01:09:41,381
and see what that object is actually doing?

1457
01:09:41,448 --> 01:09:42,248
- Sure.

1458
01:09:42,315 --> 01:09:43,750
So here we have the plane flying along.

1459
01:09:43,817 --> 01:09:45,985
It's basically flying in a straight line

1460
01:09:46,052 --> 01:09:48,121
and it's looking up at
something off in the distance,

1461
01:09:48,188 --> 01:09:50,957
that's this yellow track
way off in the distance.

1462
01:09:51,024 --> 01:09:55,195
And we know that it's somewhere
along these lines of sight

1463
01:09:55,261 --> 01:09:58,031
because we have these angular lines.

1464
01:09:58,098 --> 01:10:01,534
So we — a good guess
as to where it might be

1465
01:10:01,601 --> 01:10:03,903
if we then look at this from above

1466
01:10:05,905 --> 01:10:07,607
is that it's just way off in the distance

1467
01:10:07,674 --> 01:10:10,777
and it's just flying
away and a bit to the left.

1468
01:10:11,378 --> 01:10:14,180
- I mean it looks like something moving,

1469
01:10:14,247 --> 01:10:17,017
it seems to move the
same, a similar distance

1470
01:10:17,083 --> 01:10:20,053
in a similar amount of time
as the plane taking the movie.

1471
01:10:20,120 --> 01:10:21,154
- Yes, you can tell by the fact

1472
01:10:21,221 --> 01:10:23,356
that these lines here
are about the same length

1473
01:10:23,423 --> 01:10:25,725
that it's moving at about the same speed

1474
01:10:25,792 --> 01:10:26,860
as the plane itself,

1475
01:10:26,926 --> 01:10:29,396
which suggests it's probably another plane.

1476
01:10:29,462 --> 01:10:33,133
- But if you notice, it's just
a weird Tic Tac blob shape.

1477
01:10:33,199 --> 01:10:34,901
It's not shaped like a plane.

1478
01:10:34,968 --> 01:10:36,403
Here's why.

1479
01:10:36,469 --> 01:10:38,705
- So here's some thermal
camera footage of some jets

1480
01:10:38,772 --> 01:10:41,274
and you can see more or
less the shape of the jet there.

1481
01:10:41,341 --> 01:10:43,243
But when the camera's
in a certain configuration

1482
01:10:43,309 --> 01:10:46,179
a little bit earlier, all
you see is this blob.

1483
01:10:46,246 --> 01:10:48,481
You can't see the actual
shape of the plane itself

1484
01:10:48,548 --> 01:10:51,685
because the heat of the
engine is creating this glare

1485
01:10:51,751 --> 01:10:53,420
which obscures the shape of the engine.

1486
01:10:53,486 --> 01:10:56,222
And I think that's what we're
seeing in the Gimbal video.

1487
01:10:56,289 --> 01:10:57,791
- So the other one I
wanted to ask you about

1488
01:10:57,857 --> 01:11:00,727
is this green pyramid video
where we seem to have

1489
01:11:00,794 --> 01:11:03,863
giant green pyramid shaped spaceships

1490
01:11:03,930 --> 01:11:06,199
flying around in the sky over Navy ships.

1491
01:11:06,266 --> 01:11:07,734
What's going on with that?

1492
01:11:07,801 --> 01:11:09,169
- Well, this was a
really interesting video.

1493
01:11:09,235 --> 01:11:11,771
It looks like this video
is shot with night vision.

1494
01:11:11,838 --> 01:11:12,906
So everything appears green.

1495
01:11:12,972 --> 01:11:14,307
It's not actually green.

1496
01:11:14,374 --> 01:11:16,743
And it looks like we are seeing some kind

1497
01:11:16,810 --> 01:11:21,414
of flying green triangle,
which is a very interesting thing.

1498
01:11:21,481 --> 01:11:22,549
- I should say so.

1499
01:11:22,615 --> 01:11:27,520
- And it is shot by a Navy
sailor on a Navy ship.

1500
01:11:27,587 --> 01:11:29,089
So we know it's the official thing

1501
01:11:29,155 --> 01:11:31,958
and we know that it was
looked at by the UAP task force

1502
01:11:32,025 --> 01:11:34,060
and they tried to figure out what it was.

1503
01:11:34,127 --> 01:11:35,095
Now we see a couple more.

1504
01:11:35,161 --> 01:11:36,663
We see a couple more triangles
and then there's some more

1505
01:11:36,730 --> 01:11:39,632
down here and they're not moving.

1506
01:11:39,699 --> 01:11:41,701
They're in a very particular configuration.

1507
01:11:41,768 --> 01:11:45,772
And the claim was that this
actually shows a whole bunch

1508
01:11:45,839 --> 01:11:47,874
of drones in the sky.

1509
01:11:47,941 --> 01:11:48,842
They said these were drones.

1510
01:11:48,908 --> 01:11:50,477
That's a drone, that was a drone,

1511
01:11:50,543 --> 01:11:53,279
all these were triangular shaped drones.

1512
01:11:53,346 --> 01:11:56,082
- So what else might they be?

1513
01:11:56,149 --> 01:11:58,184
- The odds of all these drones

1514
01:11:58,251 --> 01:12:01,221
being all exactly the same
size, shape, and orientation

1515
01:12:01,287 --> 01:12:02,822
are just ridiculous.

1516
01:12:02,889 --> 01:12:03,723
So I thought, you know,

1517
01:12:03,790 --> 01:12:06,092
perhaps it's just lights
and what we're seeing

1518
01:12:06,159 --> 01:12:08,828
is the aperture of the
camera is causing this effect.

1519
01:12:08,895 --> 01:12:10,630
- Do any of these night vision cameras

1520
01:12:10,697 --> 01:12:12,699
have that kind of aperture?

1521
01:12:12,766 --> 01:12:14,067
- And the interesting thing is that some

1522
01:12:14,134 --> 01:12:17,103
of the night vision cameras
do have this type of aperture.

1523
01:12:17,170 --> 01:12:19,172
Someone on Metabunk happened to look

1524
01:12:19,239 --> 01:12:20,473
at his night vision camera

1525
01:12:20,540 --> 01:12:23,443
and it had this triangular aperture.

1526
01:12:23,510 --> 01:12:25,945
So this is Jesse's camera,
it's a night vision camera.

1527
01:12:26,012 --> 01:12:28,748
And as you can see, the
aperture of the camera

1528
01:12:28,815 --> 01:12:29,649
is triangular.

1529
01:12:30,483 --> 01:12:34,921
And you can see it is actually
a proper night vision camera.

1530
01:12:34,988 --> 01:12:36,356
Third generation.

1531
01:12:36,423 --> 01:12:37,223
- Huh.

1532
01:12:37,290 --> 01:12:38,525
- So this is the video that he took

1533
01:12:38,591 --> 01:12:40,126
with that night vision camera.

1534
01:12:40,193 --> 01:12:41,227
- [Brian] It looks exactly the same.

1535
01:12:41,294 --> 01:12:42,562
- [Mick] It looks exactly the same.

1536
01:12:42,629 --> 01:12:44,664
We are seeing flickering lights,

1537
01:12:44,731 --> 01:12:46,566
which are just stars.

1538
01:12:46,633 --> 01:12:49,302
And if a plane was to
fly by, it was flashing,

1539
01:12:49,369 --> 01:12:51,805
we would see the exact same thing.

1540
01:12:51,871 --> 01:12:55,475
And what Jesse does is
he adjusts the focus slightly.

1541
01:12:55,542 --> 01:12:58,411
And when it's just very
slightly out of focus,

1542
01:12:58,478 --> 01:13:00,780
everything in the scene
that's a single bright light

1543
01:13:00,847 --> 01:13:02,215
turns into these green triangles.

1544
01:13:02,282 --> 01:13:03,049
- [Brian] So the same thing,

1545
01:13:03,116 --> 01:13:04,317
you've got some sort of scattered noise

1546
01:13:04,384 --> 01:13:06,353
and then the stars are all green triangles.

1547
01:13:06,419 --> 01:13:08,788
- It looks identical to the Navy video.

1548
01:13:10,123 --> 01:13:12,125
So right at the start of this video,

1549
01:13:12,192 --> 01:13:14,494
we see a number of lights
and somebody noticed

1550
01:13:14,561 --> 01:13:16,830
that there's a particular
configuration here.

1551
01:13:16,896 --> 01:13:18,765
We see a very bright one here,

1552
01:13:18,832 --> 01:13:20,800
one here and then two others here.

1553
01:13:20,867 --> 01:13:22,769
And someone figured out that this one here

1554
01:13:22,836 --> 01:13:24,604
is actually Jupiter.

1555
01:13:24,671 --> 01:13:26,339
And then from there you can figure out

1556
01:13:26,406 --> 01:13:29,442
exactly what these other stars are.

1557
01:13:29,509 --> 01:13:33,013
And it turns out that
pretty much every light

1558
01:13:33,079 --> 01:13:34,914
in this entire video, other than the one

1559
01:13:34,981 --> 01:13:38,852
that's moving along and
flashing, is a star or a planet.

1560
01:13:38,918 --> 01:13:41,454
So we take the fact that we
know where Jupiter is over here

1561
01:13:41,521 --> 01:13:43,423
and these other stars down here,

1562
01:13:43,490 --> 01:13:46,993
and we can just basically
trace the path across the sky.

1563
01:13:47,060 --> 01:13:48,495
We can see all these other stars.

1564
01:13:48,561 --> 01:13:50,897
This one right here just
popped in very briefly

1565
01:13:50,964 --> 01:13:53,500
is Rasalhague.

1566
01:13:53,566 --> 01:13:55,101
And we keep going.

1567
01:13:55,168 --> 01:13:59,205
Now we see it pass these...

1568
01:14:00,140 --> 01:14:01,775
two stars here,

1569
01:14:01,841 --> 01:14:03,510
which are the two dim things that we see

1570
01:14:03,576 --> 01:14:06,479
when it zooms all the
way in, that's the star Okab.

1571
01:14:06,546 --> 01:14:08,948
And we see it just pass by.

1572
01:14:09,015 --> 01:14:10,417
- Look at that.

1573
01:14:10,784 --> 01:14:12,686
Just an ordinary aircraft

1574
01:14:12,752 --> 01:14:14,954
with ordinary flashing navigation lights

1575
01:14:15,021 --> 01:14:17,290
flying along in front
of the stars that we see

1576
01:14:17,357 --> 01:14:19,325
in the sky every night,

1577
01:14:19,392 --> 01:14:22,595
but one well-meaning
guy on a Navy ship films it

1578
01:14:22,662 --> 01:14:23,697
with a night vision camera

1579
01:14:23,763 --> 01:14:25,865
that's just slightly out of focus

1580
01:14:25,932 --> 01:14:28,968
and suddenly we have
fleets of Chinese drones

1581
01:14:29,035 --> 01:14:30,870
and a national security threat

1582
01:14:30,937 --> 01:14:34,674
or aliens flying giant green pyramids.

1583
01:14:34,741 --> 01:14:38,411
This is what happens when we
have this whole cultural mania.

1584
01:14:38,478 --> 01:14:41,414
Everything is aliens
or everything is Chinese

1585
01:14:41,481 --> 01:14:43,950
or Russian national security threats.

1586
01:14:44,017 --> 01:14:46,553
We tend to forget all
about having that standard

1587
01:14:46,619 --> 01:14:48,054
for quality of evidence.

1588
01:14:48,121 --> 01:14:50,724
And we start to allow in garbage

1589
01:14:50,790 --> 01:14:54,861
coming from what Mick
calls the low information zone.

1590
01:14:54,928 --> 01:14:58,164
- The low information
zone is where UFOs exist.

1591
01:14:58,231 --> 01:15:00,633
It's the region or the distance

1592
01:15:00,700 --> 01:15:03,269
at which you can't quite
make something out.

1593
01:15:03,336 --> 01:15:06,573
And if you could zoom
in a little bit bit more,

1594
01:15:06,639 --> 01:15:08,641
if you could actually
get closer to the UFO,

1595
01:15:08,708 --> 01:15:10,510
you'd be able to tell what it was.

1596
01:15:10,577 --> 01:15:14,581
UFOs only exist because
they're in the low information zone.

1597
01:15:14,647 --> 01:15:16,816
- If there was enough information,

1598
01:15:16,883 --> 01:15:18,718
they'd be identified.

1599
01:15:18,785 --> 01:15:20,954
So Bigfoot is in the low information zone.

1600
01:15:21,021 --> 01:15:24,057
- Very much so, Bigfoot is
in the low information zone.

1601
01:15:24,124 --> 01:15:28,561
Anything that is naturally
blurry, I think you could say,

1602
01:15:28,628 --> 01:15:29,996
is something that's an example of something

1603
01:15:30,063 --> 01:15:31,698
in the low information zone.

1604
01:15:31,765 --> 01:15:34,134
- We need to keep our bar high

1605
01:15:34,200 --> 01:15:36,569
and we need to stop giving credibility

1606
01:15:36,636 --> 01:15:39,305
to anything from the low information zone,

1607
01:15:39,372 --> 01:15:43,309
which by definition does not
meet any standard of evidence.

1608
01:15:47,180 --> 01:15:48,748
And we also need something smarter

1609
01:15:48,815 --> 01:15:52,519
than one of the most popular
go-to generic explanations

1610
01:15:52,585 --> 01:15:57,457
for UFO sightings, a quote,
"secret military aircraft".

1611
01:15:57,524 --> 01:16:00,326
This is a special pet peeve of mine.

1612
01:16:00,393 --> 01:16:02,595
Saying a UFO that seems to display

1613
01:16:02,662 --> 01:16:04,698
incredible flight characteristics

1614
01:16:04,764 --> 01:16:07,067
might be a secret military aircraft

1615
01:16:07,133 --> 01:16:09,269
is something that my skeptic friends do

1616
01:16:09,336 --> 01:16:12,005
and it's something that
my UFOlogist friends do,

1617
01:16:12,072 --> 01:16:14,741
and they are both equally off base.

1618
01:16:14,808 --> 01:16:19,045
This is a terrible, terrible,
terrible explanation,

1619
01:16:19,112 --> 01:16:21,548
but give me a chance to explain why.

1620
01:16:21,614 --> 01:16:24,117
If I say, "Hey, that looks like a car."

1621
01:16:24,184 --> 01:16:27,087
It's because we know what
a car's characteristics are.

1622
01:16:27,153 --> 01:16:29,923
It's got wheels and windows
and it's about a certain size

1623
01:16:29,989 --> 01:16:31,925
and it's rolling along the road.

1624
01:16:31,991 --> 01:16:34,794
I was able to match
those up with what I saw

1625
01:16:34,861 --> 01:16:37,997
and car matches those characteristics.

1626
01:16:38,064 --> 01:16:41,101
So now imagine any UFO sighting,

1627
01:16:41,167 --> 01:16:43,837
something that's clearly
not behaving like an airplane

1628
01:16:43,903 --> 01:16:46,539
or a balloon or anything familiar.

1629
01:16:46,606 --> 01:16:49,809
It's maneuvering
impossibly fast, it's too big,

1630
01:16:49,876 --> 01:16:51,978
it has flames, whatever it might be

1631
01:16:52,045 --> 01:16:54,314
that clearly tells us it's not an airplane

1632
01:16:54,381 --> 01:16:58,118
and we believe it must
be an extraordinary craft.

1633
01:16:58,184 --> 01:17:00,520
Well then, how were we able to match it

1634
01:17:00,587 --> 01:17:03,356
to a secret military aircraft?

1635
01:17:03,423 --> 01:17:05,625
Let's go over the characteristics

1636
01:17:05,692 --> 01:17:07,627
of secret military aircraft,

1637
01:17:07,694 --> 01:17:09,729
because they all have at least two.

1638
01:17:09,796 --> 01:17:11,998
First is where they are.

1639
01:17:12,065 --> 01:17:13,733
While they're still classified,

1640
01:17:13,800 --> 01:17:17,037
they are never out where the
general public can see them.

1641
01:17:17,103 --> 01:17:19,139
They're at someplace
like the Nevada test range,

1642
01:17:19,205 --> 01:17:21,007
where nobody will see them.

1643
01:17:21,074 --> 01:17:24,210
They're not over a major population center.

1644
01:17:24,277 --> 01:17:26,846
Second is what they move and look like.

1645
01:17:26,913 --> 01:17:29,315
Now we don't know what classified aircraft

1646
01:17:29,382 --> 01:17:31,351
the military might be testing now,

1647
01:17:31,418 --> 01:17:33,420
but we have a century of history

1648
01:17:33,486 --> 01:17:36,623
of everything every
government has ever flown.

1649
01:17:36,690 --> 01:17:39,693
Every single aircraft that was ever secret,

1650
01:17:39,759 --> 01:17:42,762
without exception, has flight capabilities

1651
01:17:42,829 --> 01:17:45,432
in the same ballpark as other aircraft.

1652
01:17:45,498 --> 01:17:47,767
And this includes the very newest manned

1653
01:17:47,834 --> 01:17:50,537
and unmanned systems to go into service.

1654
01:17:50,603 --> 01:17:53,139
Some have been incrementally faster,

1655
01:17:53,206 --> 01:17:56,076
some have had low observability features,

1656
01:17:56,142 --> 01:17:58,378
some have had advanced electronics.

1657
01:17:58,445 --> 01:18:03,583
Not one has ever been
truly unlike any other aircraft.

1658
01:18:03,650 --> 01:18:05,051
They wouldn't need to be.

1659
01:18:05,118 --> 01:18:08,788
We've had flying figured
out pretty well for some time.

1660
01:18:08,855 --> 01:18:09,956
Has any government that you know of

1661
01:18:10,023 --> 01:18:13,727
ever tested an aircraft that
has truly radical capabilities?

1662
01:18:13,793 --> 01:18:16,129
- No, I know of no nation

1663
01:18:16,196 --> 01:18:17,364
that has ever tested an aircraft

1664
01:18:17,430 --> 01:18:20,834
that is radically beyond
any aviation capability

1665
01:18:20,900 --> 01:18:22,068
we've ever heard of.

1666
01:18:22,135 --> 01:18:25,438
- And that's really all we
know about classified aircraft.

1667
01:18:25,505 --> 01:18:28,742
The two things we know,
that they are not ever out

1668
01:18:28,808 --> 01:18:30,110
in plain view where someone

1669
01:18:30,176 --> 01:18:32,545
might have gotten iPhone video of them,

1670
01:18:32,612 --> 01:18:34,914
and that they look and
perform in the same ballpark

1671
01:18:34,981 --> 01:18:39,386
as other aircraft, tell us
that they absolutely do not

1672
01:18:39,452 --> 01:18:43,423
share any characteristics with
some UFO that we see and go,

1673
01:18:43,490 --> 01:18:45,358
"Whoa, that can't be a plane."

1674
01:18:46,292 --> 01:18:49,229
If we're going to be
consistent in our logic,

1675
01:18:49,295 --> 01:18:51,297
when we're not inside the Nevada test range

1676
01:18:51,364 --> 01:18:52,499
and we see something in the sky

1677
01:18:52,565 --> 01:18:54,601
that's obviously not an airplane,

1678
01:18:54,668 --> 01:18:56,803
one thing we can be sure of

1679
01:18:56,870 --> 01:18:59,372
is that it is almost certainly not

1680
01:18:59,439 --> 01:19:01,908
a secret military aircraft.

1681
01:19:01,975 --> 01:19:05,345
Look instead to the far
more likely explanations,

1682
01:19:05,412 --> 01:19:09,516
the ones that UFOs do
turn out to be all the time,

1683
01:19:09,582 --> 01:19:13,253
like celestial objects
and airborne clutter.

1684
01:19:13,319 --> 01:19:15,689
And this is a really timely point

1685
01:19:15,755 --> 01:19:17,524
because among the people suspecting

1686
01:19:17,590 --> 01:19:21,828
advanced enemy drones for
everything are congresspeople.

1687
01:19:25,565 --> 01:19:29,869
So in May of 2022, a US House subcommittee

1688
01:19:29,936 --> 01:19:33,106
held an open hearing on the UFO phenomenon.

1689
01:19:33,173 --> 01:19:35,308
Scott Bray, who we saw earlier,

1690
01:19:35,375 --> 01:19:38,211
was the Deputy Director of
the Office of Naval Intelligence

1691
01:19:38,278 --> 01:19:41,681
and he described the type
of expertise they brought in

1692
01:19:41,748 --> 01:19:44,884
to staff the UAP task force.

1693
01:19:45,385 --> 01:19:47,153
- Additionally, subject matter experts

1694
01:19:47,220 --> 01:19:50,023
from a wide variety of
fields including physics,

1695
01:19:50,090 --> 01:19:52,759
optics, metallurgy, meteorology,

1696
01:19:52,826 --> 01:19:55,595
just to name a few have been brought in

1697
01:19:55,662 --> 01:19:58,164
to expand our understanding in areas

1698
01:19:58,231 --> 01:20:01,434
where we may not have organic expertise.

1699
01:20:01,501 --> 01:20:02,936
In short, we've endeavored to bring

1700
01:20:03,003 --> 01:20:04,804
an all hands on deck approach

1701
01:20:04,871 --> 01:20:07,207
to better understand this phenomenon.

1702
01:20:07,273 --> 01:20:08,942
- Now I know he said there were others too,

1703
01:20:09,009 --> 01:20:10,477
but from what he listed,

1704
01:20:10,543 --> 01:20:12,045
it sounds like they've already got

1705
01:20:12,112 --> 01:20:13,947
an identification in mind.

1706
01:20:14,014 --> 01:20:16,449
It sounds like he's already decided

1707
01:20:16,516 --> 01:20:19,152
these are extraordinary craft.

1708
01:20:19,219 --> 01:20:21,788
People like physicists and metallurgists

1709
01:20:21,855 --> 01:20:25,625
are qualified to analyze
an actual physical object.

1710
01:20:25,692 --> 01:20:28,161
And that's a completely different skill set

1711
01:20:28,228 --> 01:20:32,132
than trying to identify a blob
in the low information zone.

1712
01:20:32,198 --> 01:20:34,200
- I think having a
metallurgist on the task force

1713
01:20:34,267 --> 01:20:38,004
would be a good idea if you
have some metal to study.

1714
01:20:38,071 --> 01:20:40,407
A lot of these samples that
we see being talked about

1715
01:20:40,473 --> 01:20:42,876
have a very dubious provenance.

1716
01:20:42,942 --> 01:20:44,678
Some of them were just sent in anonymously

1717
01:20:44,744 --> 01:20:48,715
with strange letters to
radio shows 20 years ago.

1718
01:20:48,782 --> 01:20:51,418
- Remember that in
every UFO case in history

1719
01:20:51,484 --> 01:20:54,487
that has been solved, in not one instance,

1720
01:20:54,554 --> 01:20:58,191
not a single one, has the
explanation turned out to be

1721
01:20:58,258 --> 01:21:00,326
an extraordinary craft.

1722
01:21:00,393 --> 01:21:03,029
So the UAP task force seems to be stacked

1723
01:21:03,096 --> 01:21:05,031
with people whose expertise

1724
01:21:05,098 --> 01:21:08,034
is the least likely to be needed.

1725
01:21:08,101 --> 01:21:10,804
So let's go back to the
explanations for UFOs

1726
01:21:10,870 --> 01:21:12,906
that were ultimately identified.

1727
01:21:12,972 --> 01:21:16,876
And since those will
explain most future UFOs too,

1728
01:21:16,943 --> 01:21:21,881
let's suggest some experts
more likely to be successful.

1729
01:21:21,948 --> 01:21:24,951
The #1 explanation of solved UFO cases

1730
01:21:25,018 --> 01:21:28,054
is misidentification of celestial objects.

1731
01:21:28,121 --> 01:21:30,056
Now the task force is in the ballpark

1732
01:21:30,123 --> 01:21:31,424
with their meteorologist,

1733
01:21:31,491 --> 01:21:34,794
but what they really need is an astronomer.

1734
01:21:34,861 --> 01:21:36,262
- The people who spend the most time

1735
01:21:36,329 --> 01:21:40,166
looking at the night sky,
astronomers, never report UFOs.

1736
01:21:40,233 --> 01:21:42,035
And that's because for the most part

1737
01:21:42,102 --> 01:21:43,570
we know what we're looking at.

1738
01:21:43,636 --> 01:21:46,306
- We understand that
a strange light in the sky

1739
01:21:46,373 --> 01:21:48,942
might be a comet, it
might be a satellite trail.

1740
01:21:49,009 --> 01:21:51,478
- And phenomena that
can go on in our cameras,

1741
01:21:51,544 --> 01:21:54,447
different camera aberrations
and lens reflections.

1742
01:21:54,514 --> 01:21:57,217
- It could be a sprite in the atmosphere.

1743
01:21:57,283 --> 01:21:59,853
There are a number of
things that astronomers

1744
01:21:59,919 --> 01:22:02,522
will be able to rule
out for the government.

1745
01:22:02,589 --> 01:22:05,492
- The #2 explanation of solved UFO cases

1746
01:22:05,558 --> 01:22:07,327
is airborne clutter.

1747
01:22:07,394 --> 01:22:09,095
Now, whenever one of these has been proven

1748
01:22:09,162 --> 01:22:11,998
to be the cause of a UFO,
the people who found it

1749
01:22:12,065 --> 01:22:14,868
have been UFO skeptics,

1750
01:22:14,934 --> 01:22:17,103
the people who've spent
their lives writing books

1751
01:22:17,170 --> 01:22:19,773
and debunking UFO cases.

1752
01:22:19,839 --> 01:22:22,075
Now, I know that sounds bad to some of you,

1753
01:22:22,142 --> 01:22:24,577
like they wouldn't be very impartial,

1754
01:22:24,644 --> 01:22:26,846
but they would be the
only task force members

1755
01:22:26,913 --> 01:22:29,683
with actual experience doing the job,

1756
01:22:29,749 --> 01:22:33,186
and they've done it for
decades, in many cases.

1757
01:22:33,253 --> 01:22:36,956
Scott Bray said he wanted
an all hands on deck approach?

1758
01:22:37,023 --> 01:22:39,693
Well, even if you don't like UFO skeptics,

1759
01:22:39,759 --> 01:22:41,294
their perspective is one

1760
01:22:41,361 --> 01:22:45,498
any truly objective
task force must include.

1761
01:22:45,565 --> 01:22:48,868
The #3 explanation of solved UFO cases

1762
01:22:48,935 --> 01:22:53,039
is misidentification of lights
or objects on the ground.

1763
01:22:53,106 --> 01:22:55,442
This suggests to me what I think

1764
01:22:55,508 --> 01:22:57,711
is the single most important expert

1765
01:22:57,777 --> 01:22:59,512
the task force should have

1766
01:22:59,579 --> 01:23:02,882
and that's an experienced
air crash investigator,

1767
01:23:02,949 --> 01:23:04,918
someone from the NTSB.

1768
01:23:04,984 --> 01:23:08,188
These are the best experts
in what kinds of things

1769
01:23:08,254 --> 01:23:11,558
confuse pilots or cause them to be fooled.

1770
01:23:11,624 --> 01:23:14,427
They have seen things like motion parallax

1771
01:23:14,494 --> 01:23:17,864
and other such illusions
fool experienced pilots

1772
01:23:17,931 --> 01:23:20,033
time and time again.

1773
01:23:20,100 --> 01:23:22,736
They know that stuff
better than the pilots do.

1774
01:23:22,802 --> 01:23:25,405
My bet is the air crash investigator

1775
01:23:25,472 --> 01:23:29,943
would solve more UFO cases
than anyone else on the team.

1776
01:23:30,377 --> 01:23:33,680
Or even better: crowdsource it.

1777
01:23:33,747 --> 01:23:35,882
- I actually have
basically a team of people

1778
01:23:35,949 --> 01:23:37,050
to help me with these things.

1779
01:23:37,117 --> 01:23:39,586
I think of myself as the curator

1780
01:23:39,652 --> 01:23:41,454
of a large number of talented people

1781
01:23:41,521 --> 01:23:42,989
who help me figure these things out.

1782
01:23:43,056 --> 01:23:45,725
And I put it all together
and I show it to the public

1783
01:23:45,792 --> 01:23:47,527
but it's very much a team effort.

1784
01:23:47,594 --> 01:23:49,763
It's very much a crowdsourcing effort.

1785
01:23:49,829 --> 01:23:51,998
- What sort of skill sets do
some of these people have?

1786
01:23:52,065 --> 01:23:54,300
- Some people are good at video analysis.

1787
01:23:54,367 --> 01:23:56,870
Some people are good
at mathematical analysis.

1788
01:23:56,936 --> 01:23:59,205
Some people are just really
good at recognizing things.

1789
01:23:59,272 --> 01:24:03,009
If you have people who, for
example, are experts in kites,

1790
01:24:03,076 --> 01:24:04,477
then when they see something that's a kite

1791
01:24:04,544 --> 01:24:05,979
that I wouldn't recognize, they can say,

1792
01:24:06,046 --> 01:24:08,081
"Oh, that's that particular type of kite."

1793
01:24:08,148 --> 01:24:09,916
Or a particular type of plane,

1794
01:24:09,983 --> 01:24:11,718
people are experts in aviation.

1795
01:24:11,785 --> 01:24:14,220
Some people excel in geolocating things,

1796
01:24:14,287 --> 01:24:15,889
tracking things down, where they are

1797
01:24:15,955 --> 01:24:18,992
and what time of day
it is and things like that.

1798
01:24:19,059 --> 01:24:22,929
And some people are just
good to bounce ideas off.

1799
01:24:22,996 --> 01:24:25,065
- Having physicists and metallurgists

1800
01:24:25,131 --> 01:24:28,802
on the task force might
sound impressive, but honestly,

1801
01:24:28,868 --> 01:24:31,438
it's the wrong skill set for the job.

1802
01:24:31,504 --> 01:24:34,174
We want experts with
skill sets that give them

1803
01:24:34,240 --> 01:24:38,511
a high chance of success,
not a near zero chance.

1804
01:24:39,579 --> 01:24:41,247
But now it's time to shift gears

1805
01:24:41,314 --> 01:24:44,984
and bring this conversation
back around to where we started.

1806
01:24:45,051 --> 01:24:48,121
We've now talked about the
problems with space travel.

1807
01:24:48,188 --> 01:24:50,090
We've talked about the
deep problems we have

1808
01:24:50,156 --> 01:24:51,691
in the kind of UFO evidence

1809
01:24:51,758 --> 01:24:55,028
that too many people are
putting too much faith in.

1810
01:24:55,095 --> 01:24:58,732
So let's talk now about where
the extraordinary evidence

1811
01:24:58,798 --> 01:25:02,302
is almost certainly going to come from,

1812
01:25:02,369 --> 01:25:05,372
because this is where we
get back to the good news.

1813
01:25:08,975 --> 01:25:10,977
So what is the most likely way

1814
01:25:11,044 --> 01:25:15,048
that we'll ultimately meet
some given alien civilization?

1815
01:25:15,115 --> 01:25:17,550
How will they reach out to us?

1816
01:25:17,617 --> 01:25:18,985
Of course, we don't know this,

1817
01:25:19,052 --> 01:25:21,788
but we can make some
very well educated guesses

1818
01:25:21,855 --> 01:25:24,758
going by the one data point that we have:

1819
01:25:24,824 --> 01:25:26,126
Ourselves.

1820
01:25:26,192 --> 01:25:29,029
We've reached out, how have we tried it?

1821
01:25:29,095 --> 01:25:31,898
Because probably someone
else with our same objectives

1822
01:25:31,965 --> 01:25:34,334
would try the same things.

1823
01:25:34,401 --> 01:25:37,137
So actual interstellar travel is a problem

1824
01:25:37,203 --> 01:25:40,306
that there really isn't
a practical solution to.

1825
01:25:40,373 --> 01:25:43,309
It's where we hit that
really big stumbling block.

1826
01:25:43,376 --> 01:25:45,645
You can't go faster than light.

1827
01:25:45,712 --> 01:25:47,847
So we've done the next best thing,

1828
01:25:47,914 --> 01:25:52,352
we've sent uncrewed
probes out into deep space,

1829
01:25:52,419 --> 01:25:56,756
Pioneer 10 and 11, and Voyager 1 and 2.

1830
01:25:56,823 --> 01:25:59,059
The energy requirements are much lower

1831
01:25:59,125 --> 01:26:00,894
with an uncrewed probe,

1832
01:26:00,960 --> 01:26:04,197
thus the chances of
success are much higher.

1833
01:26:04,264 --> 01:26:06,933
Now, a downside is these are only one way.

1834
01:26:07,000 --> 01:26:08,735
We can't store enough energy aboard them

1835
01:26:08,802 --> 01:26:11,137
to come back from far away.

1836
01:26:11,204 --> 01:26:14,240
So we sent simple
messages about who we are,

1837
01:26:14,307 --> 01:26:16,943
where we are, how to find us.

1838
01:26:17,010 --> 01:26:19,045
Since this is so much easier to do,

1839
01:26:19,112 --> 01:26:20,380
it's reasonable to assume

1840
01:26:20,447 --> 01:26:22,816
that other civilizations will also try

1841
01:26:22,882 --> 01:26:25,218
the easiest ways first.

1842
01:26:25,285 --> 01:26:28,421
Even if not all the
civilizations out there try it,

1843
01:26:28,488 --> 01:26:30,423
some of them probably would;

1844
01:26:30,490 --> 01:26:32,425
so we should probably look for simple,

1845
01:26:32,492 --> 01:26:35,995
dumb, low energy probes first.

1846
01:26:36,062 --> 01:26:38,965
But there's an even easier way that reaches

1847
01:26:39,032 --> 01:26:43,036
farther and faster: radio communication.

1848
01:26:43,103 --> 01:26:45,872
We've been deliberately
beaming high-powered signals

1849
01:26:45,939 --> 01:26:50,944
about ourselves toward
interesting targets since 1974.

1850
01:26:51,111 --> 01:26:52,812
Now we haven't made a very big effort.

1851
01:26:52,879 --> 01:26:55,548
We've really only done this
kind of thing a couple of times,

1852
01:26:55,615 --> 01:26:59,786
but what we've done reached
much farther than our probes,

1853
01:26:59,853 --> 01:27:03,056
and it did so at the speed of light.

1854
01:27:03,123 --> 01:27:04,858
Compared to sending probes,

1855
01:27:04,924 --> 01:27:08,294
sending targeted
electromagnetic communications

1856
01:27:08,361 --> 01:27:10,797
is immensely cheaper, with a fraction

1857
01:27:10,864 --> 01:27:12,232
of the energy requirements.

1858
01:27:12,298 --> 01:27:13,967
It has a farther reach

1859
01:27:14,034 --> 01:27:17,337
and has that much better chance of success.

1860
01:27:17,404 --> 01:27:20,407
Whatever civilizations out
there who might want to reach us,

1861
01:27:20,473 --> 01:27:23,877
this is probably what
most of them would try

1862
01:27:23,943 --> 01:27:26,646
and it's the first thing
that would get to us.

1863
01:27:26,713 --> 01:27:28,882
And we are listening.

1864
01:27:28,948 --> 01:27:32,786
So far, we've only ever
picked up one decent candidate.

1865
01:27:32,852 --> 01:27:36,723
The famous "Wow!" signal detected in 1977

1866
01:27:36,790 --> 01:27:40,994
on the Big Ear radio telescope
at Ohio State University.

1867
01:27:41,061 --> 01:27:45,031
Still to this day, the
best explanation for it

1868
01:27:45,098 --> 01:27:47,967
is a radio transmission
from a point in space

1869
01:27:48,034 --> 01:27:50,570
in the direction of Sagittarius.

1870
01:27:50,637 --> 01:27:52,472
How far out? Well, we don't know.

1871
01:27:52,539 --> 01:27:54,407
It could have been closer than the moon.

1872
01:27:54,474 --> 01:27:57,210
It could have been from
the other side of the galaxy.

1873
01:27:57,277 --> 01:28:00,680
But we never heard anything
again from that direction.

1874
01:28:01,614 --> 01:28:05,452
But here's the most exciting
thing about the "Wow!" signal,

1875
01:28:05,518 --> 01:28:08,688
and that's the frequency
it was received on.

1876
01:28:08,755 --> 01:28:12,058
If you want to reach intelligent
aliens with a radio signal,

1877
01:28:12,125 --> 01:28:13,760
there are going to be three things

1878
01:28:13,827 --> 01:28:16,162
to guide your choice of frequency.

1879
01:28:16,229 --> 01:28:17,864
First, you want a frequency

1880
01:28:17,931 --> 01:28:19,532
that will cut through atmospheres

1881
01:28:19,599 --> 01:28:22,469
and have the best chance of being received.

1882
01:28:22,535 --> 01:28:24,437
Second, you want a frequency

1883
01:28:24,504 --> 01:28:28,475
that's in a quiet band with no
competing background noise.

1884
01:28:28,541 --> 01:28:30,777
And third, you want a frequency

1885
01:28:30,844 --> 01:28:32,579
that's universally recognized,

1886
01:28:32,645 --> 01:28:36,950
like the frequency at which
interstellar hydrogen precesses,

1887
01:28:37,017 --> 01:28:40,153
to show the receiver that
you understand science

1888
01:28:40,220 --> 01:28:42,589
and are not just some random noise.

1889
01:28:42,655 --> 01:28:44,391
Well, guess what?

1890
01:28:44,457 --> 01:28:48,495
The "Wow!" signal's
frequency met all three of these.

1891
01:28:48,561 --> 01:28:51,031
1.42 gigahertz, which is a band

1892
01:28:51,097 --> 01:28:54,267
that astronomers call the waterhole.

1893
01:28:54,334 --> 01:28:55,402
They call it the waterhole

1894
01:28:55,468 --> 01:28:57,537
because it's like nature's gathering point

1895
01:28:57,604 --> 01:28:59,606
on the electromagnetic spectrum.

1896
01:28:59,673 --> 01:29:01,041
It's the obvious place

1897
01:29:01,107 --> 01:29:03,476
that intelligent interstellar communities

1898
01:29:03,543 --> 01:29:05,979
would come to meet and greet.

1899
01:29:06,046 --> 01:29:07,480
- Yeah, so I think we would choose

1900
01:29:07,547 --> 01:29:09,382
the waterhole frequency to reach out

1901
01:29:09,449 --> 01:29:11,518
to another intelligent species.

1902
01:29:11,584 --> 01:29:14,821
And that's because it
acts as sort of a window

1903
01:29:14,888 --> 01:29:15,955
like in a house.

1904
01:29:16,022 --> 01:29:17,457
You can't look through the walls of a house

1905
01:29:17,524 --> 01:29:19,993
but you can look through
the window of a house

1906
01:29:20,060 --> 01:29:22,162
and that's kind of how
this frequency works.

1907
01:29:22,228 --> 01:29:23,463
It's a window.

1908
01:29:23,530 --> 01:29:26,366
- An alien civilization might also choose

1909
01:29:26,433 --> 01:29:29,069
the waterhole frequency
to send a signal to us

1910
01:29:29,135 --> 01:29:32,105
because that is the frequency
that we would be listening to.

1911
01:29:32,539 --> 01:29:34,708
- So we actually know a lot

1912
01:29:34,774 --> 01:29:37,544
about how we are most likely to be visited.

1913
01:29:37,610 --> 01:29:40,547
For every one crewed alien spacecraft

1914
01:29:40,613 --> 01:29:42,382
that might ever come to Earth,

1915
01:29:42,449 --> 01:29:47,020
we'd expect visits from low
energy uncrewed probes first.

1916
01:29:47,087 --> 01:29:50,390
And for every un-crewed
alien probe that makes it here,

1917
01:29:50,457 --> 01:29:54,627
we'd expect many, many
radio telephone calls first.

1918
01:29:54,694 --> 01:29:58,832
So far we have exactly
one plausible candidate,

1919
01:29:58,898 --> 01:30:01,634
but it was very plausible.

1920
01:30:01,701 --> 01:30:04,704
And remember what an
incredibly inviting neighbor

1921
01:30:04,771 --> 01:30:06,006
Earth looks like.

1922
01:30:07,107 --> 01:30:09,609
On Earth only a few centuries ago,

1923
01:30:09,676 --> 01:30:11,644
everything was so far apart.

1924
01:30:11,711 --> 01:30:13,947
People hadn't even
heard of most other places,

1925
01:30:14,014 --> 01:30:15,782
let alone been able to visit them.

1926
01:30:15,849 --> 01:30:18,985
And when they did, just
as often it was with a sword

1927
01:30:19,052 --> 01:30:20,820
as it was with bread.

1928
01:30:20,887 --> 01:30:23,757
But today, we not only have jet planes,

1929
01:30:23,823 --> 01:30:25,525
we have the internet linking us all

1930
01:30:25,592 --> 01:30:28,561
into a single community in real time.

1931
01:30:28,628 --> 01:30:30,497
Anyone can go online and see

1932
01:30:30,563 --> 01:30:34,734
and speak to a human on
the other side of the planet.

1933
01:30:34,801 --> 01:30:37,604
Will we repeat this
model with other peoples

1934
01:30:37,671 --> 01:30:38,905
in the universe?

1935
01:30:38,972 --> 01:30:42,475
It's a possibility, but most
people in the history of Earth

1936
01:30:42,542 --> 01:30:44,744
have lived their lives and died

1937
01:30:44,811 --> 01:30:46,446
within just a few miles of the village

1938
01:30:46,513 --> 01:30:48,148
where they were born.

1939
01:30:48,214 --> 01:30:51,418
Physics tells us that
this is probably the fate

1940
01:30:51,484 --> 01:30:54,421
of most intelligent civilizations.

1941
01:30:54,487 --> 01:30:57,157
We don't have the power
to break the laws of physics,

1942
01:30:57,223 --> 01:31:00,627
but we do have the power
to keep our porch light on

1943
01:31:00,694 --> 01:31:02,595
and our welcome mat spread out.

1944
01:31:03,129 --> 01:31:04,664
[hopeful music]

1945
01:31:04,731 --> 01:31:07,434
So keep listening, keep sending,

1946
01:31:07,500 --> 01:31:09,869
keep hoping, and keep watching.

1947
01:31:09,936 --> 01:31:12,906
If we can do that, our
chances of eventually becoming

1948
01:31:12,972 --> 01:31:17,277
part of an interstellar
community of some kind are fair.

1949
01:31:17,344 --> 01:31:20,847
Friends we haven't met
yet are probably out there.

1950
01:31:20,914 --> 01:31:23,516
Some might well have their eye on us.

1951
01:31:23,583 --> 01:31:27,754
It might be 10,000 years from
now, or it might be tomorrow.

1952
01:31:27,821 --> 01:31:32,058
But that signal full of
data could come anytime.

1953
01:31:33,460 --> 01:31:34,794
I'm Brian Dunning.

1954
01:31:34,861 --> 01:31:36,296
Thank you for watching.

1955
01:31:37,797 --> 01:31:41,801
[hopeful music]

1956
01:31:51,177 --> 01:31:55,181
[energizing music]